GUINEA-BISSAU: SANHA WINS SECOND ROUND PRESIDENTIAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000994

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR AF/W
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM XY PU
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: SANHA WINS SECOND ROUND PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION

REF: DAKAR 696


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Guinea-Bissau held the second round of its
presidential election on July 26 following weeks of campaigning that
saw Party for Social Renewal (PRS) candidate Kumba Yala level
significant accusations against African Party for the Independence
of Guinea Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC) candidate Malam Bacai Sanha.
All observers, including those from Embassy Dakar, agreed that the
election was well organized and technically sound. As had been the
case in the first round of voting, turnout was relatively low due in
part to recent violence (reftel). Receiving 63 percent of the votes
cast, Sanha handily defeated Yala. It has been reported that Yala
has announced that he will respect the results of the election. END
SUMMARY.

FIRST ROUND RESULTS
--------------


2. (SBU) On June 28, Guinea-Bissau held its first round of voting in
a presidential election to replace its assassinated former
president, Joao Bernardo "Nino" Vieira. Results were announced on
July 2, in which Sanha and Yala received the highest numbers of
votes cast, with 39.5 percent and 29.5 percent, respectively. Since
neither candidate managed to earn a majority of votes cast, a second
round of voting was scheduled for July 26 in accordance with the
Bissau-Guinean electoral code. Independent candidate Henrique Rosa
came in third, with 24 percent, failing to win a spot in the second
round.

THE SECOND ROUND CAMPAIGN
--------------


3. (SBU) Campaigning between Sanha and Yala began soon after the
results were announced and continued until July 24, two days before
the second round of voting. The campaigning period was peaceful,
without any incidents of violence. While some vanquished candidates
from the first round threw their support behind Sanha, including
fourth-place Iaia Djalo, Rosa pointedly did not publicly throw his
support to either candidate. As such, both Sanha and Yala tried to
win over Rosa's swing constituency as well as the approximately 40
percent of voters who did not participate in the first round.


4. (SBU) During the campaign, Yala publicly challenged Sanha to a
debate on matters of state. Sanha, who characterized their last
debate in the run-up to the 2000 as a the debacle, refused.


5. (SBU) In a meeting with PolCouns on July 24, the CNE President
said that security would be increased for the second round and would
remain in place until after the second round results are announced.
The CNE President also admitted that first round participation was
lower than had been expected but that the CNE was engaged in a "get
out the vote" campaign in advance of the second round. Both
candidates also stressed the need for first round abstainers to vote
in their campaign speeches.

YALA'S ACCUSATIONS
--------------


6. (SBU) Even though the campaign was peaceful, Yala leveled a
number of accusations at Sanha and the PAIGC, including alleging
massive electoral fraud, and at one point even accusing them of
having received Al Qaeda financing and a secret agenda of Islamic
fundamentalism. (NOTE: Many Rosa supporters are Catholic and wary of
Islam's growing influence in Guinea-Bissau. END NOTE.)


7. (SBU) On July 24 PolCouns and the Canadian Dakar-based
Guinea-Bissau watcher met with both Yala and his campaign manager,
Baltazar Cardoso, Yala claimed that the National Electoral
Commission (CNE) is "in conspiracy" with the PAIGC to rig the
elections. He claimed that in recent elections, such as the
November 2008 legislative elections, ballot boxes did not arrive in
Balanta areas until 3pm on the day of voting, while in other
regions, voting was allowed for up to three days. (NOTE: The
Balanta are Guinea-Bissau's largest ethnic group, comprising around
30 percent of the population. Balanta voters are the PRS's core
constituency. END NOTE.) According to Yala, results were fabricated
in the country's most remote regions, where international observers
supposedly do not go.


8. (SBU) Yala claimed that PRS members had caught children voting
illegally in the first round of the presidential election, and that
they had caught people with second round ballots pre-marked in
support of Sanha in advance of the second round. He claimed that
the PAIGC gives voters pre-marked ballots (ostensibly provided by
the CNE) and 10,000 CFA (approximately USD 21). Voters hide the
pre-marked ballot, vote, bring back the unmarked ballot from the

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polling station, and are given an additional 10,000 CFA.
Additionally, Yala claimed that the PAIGC are buying electoral cards
and giving them to their supporters. (COMMENT: While there may be
some of this dubious activity going on, we find it unlikely that any
such activity would occur on a scale that would alter the election
result. There is no evidence to suggest that any of Yala's
accusations are true. END COMMENT.)


9. (SBU) Cardoso insisted that he has proof of Al Qaeda's
involvement in the PAIGC. He claimed that former Bissau- Guinean
intelligence officials have been working with the PRS and say that
Al Qaeda is not only present in Guinea-Bissau but working with the
PAIGC. In his opinion, nobody notices these Al Qaeda members
because the international community believes members of Al Qaeda are
all "white," while in fact Al Qaeda has black members in
Guinea-Bissau. He claimed to have proof of this involvement and
offered to share it at a "later time" in secret, but not publicly.

ELECTION DAY
--------------


5. (SBU) The election took place without incident and was
well-organized, well-executed, and without any notable tension.
PolCouns and EmbOffs observed the balloting in Bissau, Mansoa,
Bissora, Bafata, Gabu, and surrounding rural areas. U.S. Embassy
observers did not notice any dubious or fraudulent activities. The
presence of candidates' representatives at all polling stations for
the entire day, from the opening of polls to the counting of votes,
helped to minimize irregularities. Additionally, observers from the
African Union (AU),the Economic Community of West African States
(ECOWAS),the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries (CPLP),la
Francophonie, the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA),
and the European Union (EU),as well as Canada, Japan, and the
United Kingdom agreed that the election proceeded in a smooth and
transparent manner, void of any significant irregularities.


6. (SBU) Although voting proceeded smoothly, voter turnout remained
relatively low by historical standards, much as it had during the
first round of elections. Voter turnout for the second round was
estimated to be approximately 61 percent.

ELECTION RESULTS
--------------


7. (SBU) On July 27, United Nations (UN) Representative of the
Security General (RSG) Joseph Mutaboba held a meeting with Heads of
Delegation of the various electoral observation missions including
the EU, AU, ECOWAS, the CPLP (Community of Portuguese-Speaking
Nations),La Francophonie, UEMOA (the West African Economic and
Monetary Union),Canada, Japan, the U.K, and the United States. At
the meeting Mutaboba announced that before the election he had
brokered the signing of a memorandum of understanding between both
candidates regarding recognition of official results and a
commitment to strictly legal recourses for contesting the result.


8. (SBU) On July 29, the National Electoral Commission (CNE)
announced the official results. Sanha received 224,259 votes cast,
or 63.31 percent. Yala garnered 129,963 votes, or 36.69 percent.
Strikingly, Sanha won 8 of Guinea-Bissau's 9 electoral regions, even
managing to defeat Yala in the Balanta-heavy Oio region. Yala
conceded defeat and congratulated Sanha.


9. (SBU) Comment: Many observers were concerned that Yala would
refuse to recognize the results and attempt some form of
extra-constitutional method to become president, including the
possibility of engineering a coup d'etat with the support of Balanta
military officers. While today this scenario seems less likely, it
should not be completely discounted given the history of the country
as well as more recent events.
SMITH