Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09DAKAR889
2009-07-13 18:01:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dakar
Cable title:  

GUINEA-BISSAU: DIPLOMATIC CORPS AGREES THAT

Tags:  PGOV PREL XY PU UN 
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PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDK #0889/01 1941801
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 131801Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2746
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0442
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000889 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL XY PU UN
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: DIPLOMATIC CORPS AGREES THAT
IMPUNITY AND LACK OF POLITICAL WILL BLOCKING REFORM

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Jay T. Smith for reasons 1.5 B/D.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000889

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL XY PU UN
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: DIPLOMATIC CORPS AGREES THAT
IMPUNITY AND LACK OF POLITICAL WILL BLOCKING REFORM

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Jay T. Smith for reasons 1.5 B/D.


1. (C) SUMMARY: On July 6 United Nations (UN) Representative
of the Secretary General (RSG) Joseph Mutaboba chaired
meeting of the diplomatic corps to discuss the presidential
elections in Guinea-Bissau, as well as plans to integrate and
augment the UN presence in Bissau and the international
community's efforts to support security sector reform (SSR)
and the investigation into the March assassinations of the
former president and chief of defense. Several diplomats in
Dakar participated by teleconference, including the
Ambassador, Political Counselor and Guinea-Bissau Watcher.
Participants agreed that impunity and a lack of political
will are significant impediments to reform in Guinea-Bissau.
Although participants agreed that the interests of
influential groups in Guinea-Bissau must be taken into
account, little operational agreement was reached. The
German Charge d,Affairs mentioned that Germany is cutting
all aid to Guinea-Bissau until the GOGB commits to reform and
will not support the renewal of the mandate for the European
Union (EU) SSR Mission. END SUMMARY.

UN RSG Calls on International Community to be Proactive
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) On July 6, UN RSG Mutaboba held a meeting in Bissau
with chiefs of resident diplomatic missions. Linked by
teleconference to Bissau, Embassy Dakar hosted a group
diplomats representing embassies accredited to by not
resident in Bissau. The embassies of Brazil, China, Nigeria,
Portugal, Russia, Senegal, South Africa, and Spanish sent
representatives to the meeting in Bissau, as did the Economic
Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and several UN
agencies. In Dakar, Algeria, Austria, Canada, Germany, Japan
Morocco, Tunsia, and UK and German participated. Most
countries were represented at the level of ambassador or
charge.


3. (C) Mutaboba outlined three areas of focus: the upcoming
second-round presidential elections in Guinea-Bissau on July
26, the creation of an integrated UN mission, and combating
impunity in the country. He stressed the need to be
"proactive" in Guinea-Bissau so as to avoid a regression into

a "sea of crises" but did not offer any operational details
regarding the way forward. Mutaboba also argued that, in
order for any reforms to be successful, the international
community must "take account" of the Bissau-Guinean armed
forces' interests by giving military officers pensions to
retire. He complained that while the international community
has paid pensions in Mozambique and elsewhere, it has thus
far failed to do so in Guinea-Bissau, and he called on the
international community to not "postpone" any longer.

IMPEDIMENTS TO REFORM
--------------


4. (C) The South African Ambassador in Guinea-Bissau pointed
out that, more important than what presidential candidates
are saying, is how these statements are being interpreted by
influential groups in Guinea-Bissau (for example, the Balanta
ethnic group, which comprises over 80 percent of the
military). He contended that no reform can work without
taking the "environment" ) the internal dynamics of
competing factions within influential groups ) into account.


5. (C) The Senegalese Ambassador in Guinea-Bissau pointed to
a lack of political will and "courage" among the
Bissau-Guinea political elite as the major impediment to
reform. The ECOWAS representative in Bissau agreed,
emphasizing that elected, competent leadership is needed to
combat impunity. The Nigerian Ambassador in Bissau opined
that the impunity in Guinea-Bissau is a sign of the failure
of the state. He added that in a multi-ethnic society such
as Guinea-Bissau, political decisions are made not by or as a
result of individuals but rather as a result of group
interests. Unless one addresses the interests of influential
groups, such as the Balanta, they will resist reform.

CAN CIVIC EDUCATION STOP BULLETS?
--------------


6. (C) During the meeting, Ambassador Bernicat asked what
steps the international community is taking to avoid violence
in the run-up to and period following the second-round of
presidential voting. In response, Mutaboba mentioned a
program of civic education given to candidates,
representatives as well as widespread messages disseminated
through the media in Guinea-Bissau. (COMMENT: Offering civic

DAKAR 00000889 002 OF 002


education to candidates, representatives overlooks the fact
that there is only one candidate, Kumba Yala, who presents a
risk of violence. His inflammatory statements, his history
of not accepting election results, his stated refusal to
accept anything other than outright victory, and his
following among the Balanta military could prove to be the
powder keg that explodes and plunges Guinea-Bissau into
chaos. END COMMENT.)

THE GERMAN SOLUTION
--------------


8. (C) At a break in the teleconference due to technical
difficulties, the German Charge mentioned to Dakar-based
group that Germany has decided to suspend all bilateral aid
to Guinea-Bissau and will vote against all multilateral
assistance for Guinea-Bissau in organizations such as the EU,
the World Bank, and the African Development Bank until all
sides in Guinea-Bissau (civilian and military) send a clear
signal that they are ready for significant reform. The
British Charge remarked that although such a move sends a
very strong message, that a strong message may be what is
currently needed. When this idea was mentioned to
participants in Bissau following resolution of technical
difficulties, Mutaboba agreed with Germany's approach,
stressing that in exchange for assistance, the international
community should demand reform and results.


9. (C) COMMENT: Among the Dakar participants there was
sympathy for the German Charge,s sentiment, particularly
from Austria and Canada. Everyone agreed that the GOGB must
be given a clear signal that it has responsibilities to the
international community and its own people and that
assistance from the international community may have to be
conditioned. END COMMENT.
SMITH