GUINEA-BISSAU: SANHA, YALA PREVAIL IN SOUND PRESIDENTIAL

UNCLAS DAKAR 000825

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR AF/W
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM XY PU
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: SANHA, YALA PREVAIL IN SOUND PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION

REF: DAKAR 696


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Guinea-Bissau's presidential election took place
without major incident on June 28. All observers, including those
from Embassy Dakar, agreed that the election was technically sound.
Voter turnout was low, due in part to recent violence (reftel) and
the re-use of voter lists compiled 12 months ago. African Party for
the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) candidate Malam
Bacai Sanha received 39 percent of the votes cast and will face
former President and Party for Social Renewal (PRS) candidate Kumba
Yala, who garnered 29 percent of the vote, in a second round of
balloting on August 2. END SUMMARY

BACKGROUND
--------------


2. (SBU) On June 28, Guinea-Bissau held a presidential election to
replace its slain former president, Joao Bernardo "Nino" Vieira.
The three weeks of official campaigning were muted due to the March
assassinations of Vieira and armed forces chief of staff General
Tagme Na Wai and the June killings of presidential candidate Baciro
Dabo and former Minister of Defense Helder Proenca. Independent
candidate Pedro Infanda dropped out of the race citing a lack of
security.

ELECTION DAY
--------------


3. (SBU) The election took place without incident and was
well-organized, well-executed and without any notable tension.
PolCouns and EmbOffs observed the balloting in Bissau, Mansoa,
Bissora, Bafata, Gabu, and surrounding rural areas. Although U.S.
Embassy observers noticed some very minor irregularities such as
improperly sealed ballot boxes, none noticed any dubious or
fraudulent activities. The presence of candidates' representatives
at all polling stations for the entire day, from the opening of
polls to the counting of votes, helped to minimize irregularities.
Additionally, observers from nations and organizations including the
African Union, the Economic Community of West African States
(ECOWAS),the United Kingdom, and the European Union (EU) agreed
that the election proceeded in a smooth and transparent manner, void
of any irregularities.


4. (SBU) Although voting proceeded smoothly, voter turnout was
noticeably lower than during the November 2008 legislative
elections. Voter turnout was approximately 60 percent, with
significant variations between regions and ethnic groups. For
example, turn-out was reportedly very low among the Papel ethnic
group, ostensibly because they were protesting the assassination of
former president Vieira, who was Papel. The EU observation mission
noted that "the climate of insecurity and fear observed mainly in
the capital, Bissau, may have contributed to the voters' apathy and
lack of enthusiasm during the campaign compared to past elections
and to a possible increase in the level of abstention."


ELECTION RESULTS
--------------


5. (SBU) On July 2, the National Electoral Commission (CNE)
announced the unofficial results. African Party for the
Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) candidate Malam Bacai
Sanha received 133,786 votes cast, or 39.5 percent. Party for
Social Renewal (PRS) candidate Kumba Yala garnered 99,428 votes, or
29.5 percent. Independent candidate Henrique Rosa secured 81,751
votes, or 24 percent, thereby failing to win a spot in the second
round. (NOTE: In accordance with the Bissau-Guinean electoral code,
if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, the two
candidates receiving the most votes will compete in a run-off
election. END NOTE) On July 1, Rosa conceded defeated,
congratulated Sanha and Yala, and called on all parties to accept
the results. On July 2, following the release of the official
results, Sanha and Yala both publicly accepted the findings of the
CNE.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: Sanha's strong showing appears to be more of a
result of the organizational capacity of the PAIGC political machine
rather than an endorsement of the government of Prime Minister and
PAIGC President Carlos Gomes Jr. Indeed, public dissatisfaction
with Gomes' government combined with Yala's relentless and scathing
campaign attacks on Gomes and the PAIGC, likely propelled Yala into
second place. It is unlikely, however, that Yala will prevail in
the second round, as most of Rosa's supporters will likely throw
their support behind Sanha. END COMMENT.

BERNICAT