Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09DAKAR666
2009-05-29 14:03:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dakar
Cable title:  

GUINEA-BISSAU PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES, ELECTION

Tags:  PGOV PREL PU XY 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO5987
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDK #0666/01 1491403
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 291403Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2475
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON PRIORITY 0885
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 1217
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DAKAR 000666 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA
PARIS FOR DEA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PU XY
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES, ELECTION
ROUNDUP

REF: A. A)DAKAR 624

B. B)DAKAR 460

Classified By: DCM JAY T. SMITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DAKAR 000666

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA
PARIS FOR DEA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PU XY
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES, ELECTION
ROUNDUP

REF: A. A)DAKAR 624

B. B)DAKAR 460

Classified By: DCM JAY T. SMITH


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Of the thirteen candidates that remain in
contention for the presidency of Guinea-Bissau, Malam Bacai
Sanha, Kumba Yala, Henrique Rosa and Baciro Dabo have emerged
as the front runners. Despite reported tensions between
Sanha and Prime Minister Carlos Gomes Junior, most observers
expect Sanha and Yala to make it through to the second round
of voting, with Sanha eventually winning. Other candidates
appear to be using the campaign as a point of entry for
negotiating a job with a subsequent administration. A
diverse group of foreign governments have pledged enough
money to pay for the election, which is on course the June 28
first round of balloting. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Following the May 13, 2009, Supreme Court ruling on
electoral eligibility (Ref A) and the successful appeal of a
previously disqualified candidate, thirteen of the original
20 candidates remain in the field for the June 28
presidential elections. Explaining its decision, the Court
noted that many of the ineligible candidates had failed to
adhere strictly to the internal regulations of their
political parties, thereby disqualifying their candidacies.
Several of the disqualified candidates, including former
Prime Minister Aristides Gomes, have appealed the Court,s
decision. Defying recent predictions to the contrary, five
of the nine justices voted to allow the candidacy of
businessman and former interim President Henrique Rosa
despite doubts that his grandparents, nationality and place
of birth met the legal requirements.

GOMES, PEREIRA, AND THE PAIGC
--------------


3. (SBU) Interim President Raimundo Pereira,s presidential
candidacy abruptly ended on April 24, 2009, when he lost the
vote within the Central Committee of the ruling African Party
for the Independence of Guinea Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC)
118 to 144 to official PAIGC candidate Malam Bacai Sanha.
Prime Minister and PAIGC President Carlos Gomes Junior had
publicly lobbied for Pereira to become the party,s official
presidential candidate. (Note: In January 2009, Gomes,

personal and forceful intervention on Pereira,s behalf
overcame rank-and-file PAIGC opposition and resulted in
Pereira being named President of the National Assembly. End
Note.)


4. (C) According to Linda de Souza, political advisor to the
United Nations Peace-Building Support Office in Guinea-Bissau
(UNOGBIS),Sanha,s victory in the Central Committee,s vote
was a clear and resounding repudiation of Gomes, who had
defeated Sahna in the June 2008 party congress vote for the
presidency of the PAIGC. Weakened by the military,s
usurpation of national authority since the March
assassinations of President Joao Bernardo Vieira and Armed
Forces Chief of Staff General Tagme Na Wai and dogged by
rumors that he was behind or involved in the killings,
Gomes,s failure to muster the votes in the Central Committee
for the candidacy of Periera, his right-hand man, served as
stark evidence of Gomes, rapidly diminishing political
capital, de Souza told PolOff on May 19.

EARLY FRONT-RUNNERS: DABO, ROSA, SANHA, AND YALA
-------------- ---


5. (SBU) With the support of the vast resources and political
organization of the PAIGC, observers in Guinea-Bissau were
unanimous during conversations with PolOff May 2-7, 2009,
that PAIGC official candidate Sanha is the odds-on favorite
to become the next President of Guinea-Bissau. Observers
speculated that Sanha and Party for Social Renewal (PRS)
President Kumba Yala would be the two candidates most likely
to make it past the June 28 first-round ballot. The second
round, normally to follow 30 days after the first round,
likely would see Sanha prevail, according to international
and local commentators.


6. (C) Sanha, who ran unsuccessfully for President in 2000
and 2005, is widely known as the &Muslim8 candidate. In
particular during the 2000 run-off election against eventual
winner Yala, Sanha,s campaign relied heavily on rhetoric
appealing to Muslim nationalism and the country,s 50 percent
Muslim population. Consequently, Sanha has been labeled an
Islamic fundamentalist by Bissau,s political elite. Current

DAKAR 00000666 002 OF 004


presidential candidate and former Presidential Chief of Staff
Joao Cardoso, for example, referred to Sanha during a May 6
meeting with PolOff as a &religious fanatic.8


7. (C) Sanha, however, dismissed such characterizations
during a May 7 meeting with PolOff. He insisted that he had
no intention of changing Guinea-Bissau,s secular state,
either constitutionally or culturally. Sanha, who had
returned to Bissau from a trip to Libya on May 6, cited his
study of Marxism in his youth as evidence of his intellectual
curiosity. He further noted that his regular consumption of
alcohol and his two Christian wives are evidence of his
religious flexibility and of his ties to the Christian
community. Politically, Sahna postulated that in order to
win the presidency of Guinea-Bissau, one must appeal to both
the Muslim and Christian communities equally, and suggested
that his campaign rhetoric would reflect that reality.
(Note: Kumba Yala ostensibly converted to Islam in 2008,
altering the politics of religion in the event of a
Sahna-Yala election rematch. End Note.)


8. (C) Sanha didn,t deny the political rift between him and
Gomes. When asked, Sanha said that Gomes would campaign for
the PAIGC, but not for Sanha personally. In a sign of
Gomes, sudden unpopularity with the electorate, Sanha
speculated that were Gomes to campaign for him personally, it
may be more a political liability than an asset. Sanha cited
national reconciliation, security sector reform, delivery of
basic services and counter-narcotics as his priorities if
elected President.


9. (C) PRS presidential candidate Kumba Yala, who served as
President from 2000 until he was deposed in a coup in 2003,
has yet to return to Guinea-Bissau and is likely still in
Dakar, Senegal. According to presidential candidate Zinha
Vaz, Yala, from the Balanta ethnic group, announced in an
April radio interview that he would stop all efforts to
reform the security sector if elected president. Yala, was
also quoted in Bissau-Guinean media in May justifying his
refusal to sign the civil society-backed electoral code of
conduct, explaining that no one had that moral authority to
dictate his conduct. Despite the numerous and severe
failings of his presidential administration, observers remain
confident that Yala,s fellow Balanta will vote for him en
masse.


9. (C) Independent candidate and businessman Henrique Rosa is
the strongly preferred candidate of Bissau,s political
elite. Rosa, who served as interim President from 2003 to
2005 following the military coup that removed Yala from
office, is roundly praised for his sound management
experience and his clean and wholesome image. While
extremely popular in the city of Bissau, Rosa has little base
of support in rural Guinea-Bissau according to the U.N.,s de
Souza, where religious and ethnic cleavages supersede
professional qualifications. Rosa, who enjoyed the support
of Prime Minister Gomes until recent months, forcefully
condemned in March 2009 the military,s beatings of critics
(Ref B). On May 16, Rosa defended the armed forces more
generally, insisting that the military cannot be blamed for
all of the country,s ills since independence.


10. (C) Baciro Dabo, current Minister of Territorial
Administration, enjoys the tacit backing of Prime Minister
Gomes, according to de Souza, and is an un-official candidate
of the PAIGC. A lifelong member of the PAIGC, Dabo served as
an officer in both the military and the civilian police
before launching his political career. A former Ambassador
to the Gambia, journalist, radio personality, and
accomplished singer, Dabo used his close association with
Vieira to secure various ministerial portfolios, including
the Minister of Interior and the Minister of Communication.
According to the U.N.,s de Souza, Gomes encouraged Dabo to
run for president following the PAIGC,s Central Committee
vote in favor of Sanha. In a May 6 meeting with PolOff, Dabo
described his candidacy as an &alternative8 to Sanha,s,
who Dabo claims has lost too many elections and is too
closely associated with past conflict.


11. (C) Note: Due in part to Dabo,s friendship with Vieira
and his military and law enforcement experience, Dabo emerged
as one of the prime suspects in the military,s investigation
into the assassination of Na Wai. Dabo told PolOff that
following Na Wai,s and Vieira,s deaths, soldiers came to
his house and threatened to kill him and his family. In an
uncharacteristic act of defiance to military authority, Gomes
refused to allow the military investigators to interview Dabo

DAKAR 00000666 003 OF 004


about his alleged role in Na Wai,s death. Instead, Dabo
submitted to an interview by officers from the Judicial
Police, who shared the results of the interview with the
military to allow the armed forces to complete their
investigation. End Note.


12. (C) The charismatic Dabo, who calls himself the
&Zidane8 of Bissau-Guinean politics, conceded to PolOff
that he is disliked by many in the armed forces. If elected
President, he pledged to restore civilian authority in the
country and impose discipline on an out-of-control military.
His top priority, he said, would be security sector reform,
of which compulsory military service would be a key component
in order to instill an ethnic balance to a heretofore heavily
Balanta armed forces.

THE REST OF THE PACK
--------------


13. (C) According to observers, it is highly unlikely that
any of the other nine presidential candidates will make it
through to the second round of balloting. (Note: On May 19,
the Supreme Court approved the candidacy of Pedro Infanda
following his successful appeal of the May 13 decision
disqualifying him. End Note.) Indeed, several of the
candidates appear to have alternative objectives short of
winning the poll. For example, Zihna Vaz told PolOff on May
5 that her candidacy was nothing more than a back-up option
in the event that the Supreme Court had rejected the
candidacy of Henrique Rosa. Vaz now intends to encourage her
supporters to vote for Rosa.


14. (C) On May 4, Serifo Balde, who at 42 years old is the
youngest candidate in the field, suggested to PolOff that he
and other candidates were running for President in hopes of
leveraging the votes of their supporters in the second round
in exchange for later ministerial jobs. Balde expressed hope
that Rosa will make it through to the second round but will
remain open to negotiation with whoever prevails.


15. (C) Vieira,s long-time Chief of Staff Joao Cardosa told
PolOff on May 6 that while he was in hiding in the weeks
following Vieira,s assassination, he had a dream that
inspired him to run for President. Cardosa,s candidacy, he
said, sought to appeal to the intellectuals who would prefer
not to vote for Rosa. De Souza, however, speculated that
after years in government service as Vieira,s right-hand
man, Cardosa hopes to use his candidacy as an entry point for
negotiating a job with the next administration.

PREPARATIONS FOR THE ELECTION
--------------


16. (SBU) Preparations remain on course for the June 28 poll.
The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the
National Electoral Commission (CNE) stated that as of May 20,
all the anticipated USD 5 million needed for the election had
been raised or pledged. Those governments or organizations
contributing to the poll include the European Commission (USD
1.5 million),the United Nations (USD 900,000),the Economic
Community of West African States (USD 500,000),the United
States (USD 300,000),Brazil (USD 200,000),China (USD
200,000) and Germany (USD 116,000). The government of
Guinea-Bissau (GOGB) committed to contributing USD 500,000 of
its own resources, while Portugal pledged to cover any
funding gap, which stands at USD 400,000 as of May 20. The
GOGB transferred USD 200,000 to the CNE on May 21 in its
initial release of internal election funds.


17. (C) On May 4, CNE President Desejado Lima da Costa
confirmed to PolOff that the CNE will use the voter lists
from the November 16, 2008 legislative elections for the June
28 poll. While conceding that this will disenfranchise those
citizens who have become eligible to vote or have moved since
the July-August 2008 census was concluded, da Costa insisted
that the GOGB faced insufficient time and money to update the
voter lists.


18. (C) Da Costa, the former president of the National
Workers Union of Guinea (UNTG),also dismissed the
possibility that poll workers would strike for payment of
salary arrears, as they did in October 2008, insisting that
the GOGB had already budgeted for payment of 50 percent of
the remaining election-related debt to workers and vendors.
In a May 6 meeting with PolOff, the current head of the UNTG,
Canal Mende, also downplayed the possibility of labor unrest
in the run-up to the June 28 election, despite the fact that

DAKAR 00000666 004 OF 004


the GOGB has managed to paid government salaries for only two
of the last seven months.

COMMENT
--------------


19. (C) If true, Gomes, rift with Sanha and his
behind-the-scenes backing of Dabo provide further evidence
that his authoritarian leadership style and his cut-throat
brand of politics have resulted in the alienation of
erstwhile supporters and in the undermining of his authority
both within the PAIGC and the Prime Minister,s office.
Instead of building and expanding coalitions to enable him to
work more effectively, Gomes seems driven by intolerance for
dissention and a desire for political retribution. If left
unchecked, such petty personal politics could result in a
return to distracting and harmful animosity between the
President and Prime Minister ) similar that that which
existed between Vieira and Gomes ) if Sanha wins the
presidency.


20. (C) Among the major candidates, Rosa seems to represent
the best hope for Guinea-Bissau. Smart, competent and clean,
a Rosa presidency could signal a dramatic rupture from the
corrupt oligarchy that has ruled Guinea-Bissau since its
independence. A more likely outcome, however, is that Sanha
and Yala will make it through to the second round, with
Sanha, an old-guard stalwart and protector of the status quo,
eventually winning. Regardless of the outcome, Gomes will
need to set aside his divisive personal politics if
Guinea-Bissau is to address the serious challenges that lie
ahead.

BERNICAT