GUINEA-BISSAU ASSASSINATIONS UPDATE MARCH 5

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000285

SIPDIS

PARIS FOR DEA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2019
TAGS: KOCI PGOV PREL PINR PINS PU XY
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU ASSASSINATIONS UPDATE MARCH 5

Classified By: Classified by AMB Marcia Bernicat for reasons 1.5 (b) an
d (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: According to the Bissau-Guinean ambassador
to Senegal, drug traffickers or, perhaps, Guinea Conakry had
a hand in the assassination of Chief of Staff General Tagme
Na Wai. It is clear that Mansoa battalion commander, Antonio
Nije, is responsible for killing President Joao Bernardo
Vieira. Just before the assassination of Na Wai, Vieira met
with the general and other senior officers to announce that
he was dismissing Na Wai from his role as chief of staff,
which prompted Na Wai to remark that Vieira was gunning for
him. Drug money is likely to flood into the country during
the presidential election campaign. Potential presidential
candidate Enrique Rosa, a former interim-president, would be
a good leader for the country who could work well with the
current prime minister. END SUMMARY.

Are Outside Forces Responsible for Killing Military Chief?
-------------- --------------


2. (C) On March 4, after signing the condolence book for the
deaths of Vieira and Na Wai, Ambassador Bernicat met with her
Bissau-Guinean counterpart, Fali Embalo. Embalo opined that
outside forces -- perhaps narcotics traffickers, perhaps
unnamed parties from Guinea Conakry --are most likely
responsible for the assassination of Chief-of-Staff General
Tagme Na Wai. According to Embalo, the remote detonator used
to set off the explosives that killed Na Wai are not part of
Bissau-Guinean military's armaments (Comment: Post OSC Chief
also believes such a device is beyond the technical
capability of the Bissau-Guinean armed forces).

It is Clear Who Killed Vieira
--------------


3. (C) Embalo said he had spoken with Vieira shortly after
the assassination of Na Wai, at approximately 10:30 PM local
time, and asked the President about his security; the
President replied that he was safe and that the military was
taking the necessary precautions to protect him, including
setting up road blocks. He believed this in spite of the
apparent fact that Vieira apparently had just announced to Na
Wai earlier in the evening that he was dismissing the general
from his position as chief of staff, to which Na Wai reacted
by saying that Vieira was coming after him. (Comment:
According to another source, President Vieira met with the
Minister of Defense and the chiefs of staff of the armed
services to assure them that he was not involved in the
assassination of Na Wai. Reportedly, the President left that
meeting convinced he had persuaded the generals, which could
explain why he remained in his home with his wife in the
hours after the death of Na Wai. End comment.)


4. (C) According to Embalo, Antonio Nije, the commander of
the army battalion in Mansoa, is directly implicated in the
assassination of Vieira. The Bissau-Guinean ambassador
claimed that Nije ordered his men to go to Bissau and to
attack the President. Upon arriving at the President's
house, several of his army guards apparently left, while
others remained and joined the mutinous soldiers in attacking
the President. Embalo said that several people were in the
house when the soldiers confronted Vieira. When the soldiers
threatened the First Lady, Vieira told them to leave her be
because their fight was with him. One of the mutinous
officers agreed and ordered the president's wife, Isabella,
into another room of the house from where she heard her
husband being beaten and then shot. Then Mrs. Vieira and the
presidential advisers that were present were allowed to
leave, apparently. When asked about Naval Captain and
self-proclaimed military spokesperson/chief-of-staff Zamora
Induta, Embalo said that Induta had implicated himself in the
death of Vieira at a minimum indirectly and that he had been
reckless to announce that Vieira was responsible for the
death of Na Wai.


5. (C) When asked if the GOGB could make use of
investigative assistance, Embalo said his government would
welcome it, insisting that the guilty parties needed to be
apprehended and prosecuted. He said that it was clear who
was responsible and there are eye witnesses to the crime who
are now in hiding.

Presidential Elections
--------------


6. (SBU) Embalo reported that the government of Portugal and
the European Union (EU) have offered to help pay for the

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upcoming presidential elections, which are scheduled to take
place 60 days after the National Assembly president, Raimundo
Pereira, assumes the office of interim-president, as per the
constitution. However, he said the EU is "drained" having
just spent considerable money supporting the November 2008
legislative elections.


7. (C) The Bissau-Guinean ambassador expressed concern that
drug money would flood the country during the campaign for
the presidency as it did during the legislative elections.
Although, he conceded that the alleged use of drug money by
President Vieira's Party for Independence and Development
(PRID) did not seem to have an impact on the legislative
elections, given that PRID only won two of the 100 seats.


8. (C) Embalo commented that one of the possible
presidential candidates, Enrique Rosa, who served as
interim-president following the 1998 civil war, would be a
good leader for the country. While he did not rule out the
possibility that Prime Minister Carlos Gomes Junior would run
for president himself, Embalo said the Rosa and Gome would
make a good team because the two get along and know each
other well. He said that Rosa, a former businessman like
Gomes, did a good job running the country while
interim-president and that he was respected for the same
reasons as Gomes, being seen as competent and uncorrupt. In
a separate conversation, the Cape Verdean ambassador also
expressed admiration for Rosa.


9. COMMENT: Ambassador Embalo's comments underscore that the
deaths of Vieira and Na Wai, while tragic, could represent a
window of opportunity for the country. While the victory of
Gomes' African Independence Party for Guinea-Bissau and Cape
Verde (PAIGC) in November was a positive step for the
country, the personal enmity between Vieira and Gomes and
their disagreements regarding the proper role and division of
power between the offices of the president and prime minister
created unnecessary conflict. This conflict had the
potential of causing gridlock that would block much need
security sector and public sector reform. While the
assassination itself is a source of instability in the short
term and it is impossible to say with any degree of certainty
how the situation will develop in Guinea-Bissau in the next
few weeks, the death of Vieira and Na Wai removes two
conflicting actors and potential sources of instability from
the country's leadership dynamic and could give Gomes the
breathing room he needs to establish civilian control over
the armed forces and to move forward on reforms. END
COMMENT.
BERNICAT