GUINEA-BISSAU ASSASSINATIONS UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000275

SIPDIS

PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2019
TAGS: CASC PGOV PINR PREL PU XY
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU ASSASSINATIONS UPDATE

REF: DAKAR 263

Classified By: Classified by AMB Marcia Bernicat for reasons 1.5 (b) an
d (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In the calm following the assassinations of
Armed Forces Chief of Staff General Tagme Na Wai and
President Joao Bernardo Vieira, the Bissau-Guinean military
leadership continues to insist they want no role in governing
the country. The interim President, Raimundo Pereira, was
sworn in on March 3 and pledged to hold presidential
elections within 60 days. Military personnel reportedly
continue to pursue Vieira loyalists in hopes of exacting
further revenge. The state funerals for both men, planned
for March 7, are meant to begin a period of national
reconciliation. While tragic, the deaths may represent a
crucial window of opportunity for Guinea-Bissau by allowing
the country to strengthen progress made toward
democratization in the past two successful elections,
potentially ushering in an era of civilian control of the
military, and security sector reform. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) In the aftermath of the March 1 assassination of
General Na Wai and the March 2 retaliatory killing of
President Vieira, representatives from the Bissau-Guinean
armed forces continue to eschew political control of the
country, insisting that the country remains under civilian
leadership. On March 2, in a sign of deference, military
leaders traveled to the office of Prime Minister Carlos Gomes
Junior to reportedly assure Gomes that the military had no
desire to rule the country. Following the meeting, Gomes
made a brief public statement in demonstration of his
continued leadership.


3. (SBU) In a March 3 ceremony before the National Assembly,
Raimundo Pereira, the heretofore National Assembly president,
was sworn in as the interim president of the country. In
accordance with the constitution, Pereira has 60 days to hold
new presidential elections. Likely candidates include
businessman and former interim president Enrique Rosa
(reportedly the preferred candidate of Prime Minister Gomes)
and former President Kumba Yala (leader of the Party of
Social Renewal (PRS) and de facto political leader of the
Balanta ethnic group which dominates the armed forces).
Sources suggest that Gomes does not aspire to the presidency,
preferring to remain as Prime Minister. National Assembly
1st Vice-President Serifo Nhamadjo assumed the presidency of
the parliament pending Pereira,s return to the legislative
body.


4. (SBU) Throughout March 3, normalcy returned to the streets
of Bissau. The airport and borders reopened and automobile
traffic flowed relatively freely in Bissau as military
checkpoints came down. Banks, which closed Monday and
Tuesday due in part to fear of potential looting from members
of the armed forces, are set to reopen March 4. Television
and radio resumed broadcasting in the evening of March 2,
albeit with scant reporting on current events and a shortened
broadcast schedule.


5. (C) Although conflicting reports persist about who is
controlling the military, most suggest that no single
individual is stepping forward to replace Na Wai as the Armed
Forces Chief of Staff. Instead, the military is being run by
an ad hoc committee of the Army, Navy and Air Force Chiefs of
Staff. Sources also agree that Naval Captain Zamora Induta
overstepped his authority when he informed the press that he
was the new Armed Forces Chief of Staff. Diplomatic and
senior Senegalese military sources characterized Induta as a
self-aggrandizing opportunist. According to the United
Nations Peace-Building Support Office in Guinea-Bissau
(UNOGBIS),battalion commanders in Mansoa, Buba and Gabu are
exerting strong influence over the military as well.


6. (C) In a meeting with the Deputy Chief of Mission and head
of the Office of Security Cooperation, the Senegalese Chief
of Staff, General Abdoulaye Fall, noted that Na Wai had the
rare ability to span the ethnic, generational and political
cleavages that cut across the Bissau-Guinean military and
characterized Na Wai as a stabilizing force.


7. (C) There are indications that members of the Armed Forces
are now calling into question Vieira's role in the
assassination of Na Wai, given that Vieira made no attempt to
protect himself in the aftermath of Na Wai's death.
Reportedly, Vieira met with the chiefs of the armed services
and the Minister of Defense late on March 1 to assure them

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that he had no role in the general's death.


8. (C) Despite any doubts about Vieira,s involvement in the
death of Na Wai, several sources indicate that military
personnel are reportedly vigorously pursuing a handful of
Vieira loyalists who have gone into hiding. Media reports
and sources indicate that the current Minister of Territorial
Administration, Baciro Dabo, has sought refuge at the local
UN compound. Other Vieira loyalists allegedly wanted by the
military include Joao Cardoso, the former head of Vieira,s
Office and top advisor, Adolfo Martins, head of presidential
protocol, Joao Monteiro, from the state intelligence agency,
Cipriano Cassama, the former Minister of Interior responsible
for standing up a presidential guard force in December 2008
against Na Wai,s wishes, and Helder Proenca, Vieira,s
preferred but unsuccessful candidate for the January election
of the National Assembly president. Sources suggest that the
military will execute the Vieira loyalists if apprehended.


9. (C) Conflicting reports surround the whereabouts of former
President Kumba Yala. Yala,s passport was returned to him
in January when he was allowed to travel to his second home
in Morocco for medical reasons. If he surreptitiously
returned to Bissau, he has avoided any public appearances.
After some discussion, Senegalese military officials believed
Yala is in Guinea-Bissau. On March 2, PRS officials
&vehemently condemned the barbaric acts8 surrounding the
two assassinations.


10. (SBU) Vieira,s wife, Isabel Vieira, is reported to be in
good condition and is awaiting, reportedly, her husband,s
burial before accepting asylum in Portugal. The two state
funerals for the men will be held on Saturday, March 7.


11. (SBU) Post sent out a warden message during the morning
of March 2 to all registered Americans in both Guinea-Bissau
and Senegal, informing them of the situation and advising
caution. At present, Dakar ACS has identified 31 American
citizens currently in Guinea-Bissau, of which four are
tourists. All 31 people have been accounted for either
directly by phone or indirectly through our contacts.


12. (C) COMMENT: While tragic, the deaths may represent a
potentially positive turning point for the country and a
window of opportunity for the USG and international community
to help shape the future of Guinea-Bissau. This view is
shared by many Bissau-Guineans and observers, according to
anecdotal evidence, even though they were shocked by the
violent events. Barring a sudden and dramatic change in the
posture of military leaders, Guinea-Bissau appears to have
avoided a coup d'etat in the aftermath of the assassinations
of Vieira and Na Wai. With the appropriate assistance, Prime
Minister Gomes and the next president could establish
effective civilian control over the military, pursue much
needed security sector reform, and begin to seriously combat
narcotics trafficking.
BERNICAT