GUINEA-BISSAU FEBRUARY 2009 SCENESETTER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DAKAR 000217

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE FOR AF/RSA, AF/W
PARIS FOR DEA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL XY PU
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU FEBRUARY 2009 SCENESETTER


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Guinea-Bissau remains at risk of becoming a
narco-state. It has become one of the transit points of choice for
South American drug traffickers. Its extreme poverty and lack of
law enforcement and judicial capacity make it particularly
attractive and vulnerable to infiltration and exploitation by
narcotics traffickers and other forms of organized crime and,
potentially, terrorists. In addition, the country is in urgent need
of security sector and public sector reform. The armed forces,
which are dominated by one ethnic group, former independence
fighters, and participants in the 1998 civil war, will need to be
completely restructured. The public sector is too large and the
government is unable to pay civil servant salaries. The recently
elected Prime Minister seems committed to tackling these issues with
the support of the international community. However, he is at odds
with the President and members of his own party in the National
Assembly. Although his party dominates the legislature, there is a
risk that the government could fall in the near term. END SUMMARY.

Fragile Democracy at Risk of Becoming a Narco-State
--------------


2. (SBU) Your visit to Guinea-Bissau comes at a critical time. The
country is struggling to consolidate its fragile progress toward
full democratization, reform its security and law enforcement
sectors, as well as the rest of the public sector, and combat the
growing influence of narcotics traffickers. Current President Joao
Bernardo "Nino" Vieira returned to power in a peaceful election in
2005 and Guinea-Bissau took another tentative step toward political
stability by holding successful, free, and fair legislative
elections in November 2008, which led to the re-installation of
Carlos Gomes Junior as Prime Minister in January 2009. The
political party of Gomes, or "Cadogo" as he is known, has a majority
of 67 in the 100-member National Assembly. As a result, Gomes, who
has a strong counter-narcotics and human rights background, has a
mandate to exercise the necessary political will to lead the
government's most serious counter-narcotics and security sector
reform efforts to date. Over the past four years, the United States
has supported President Vieira's episodic attempts to strengthen
democracy.


3. (SBU) Guinea-Bissau's relatively short history has been
conflict-ridden and characterized by coups, but it successfully
elected a new President in 2005 and changed governments in April
2007 via a constitutional and peaceful vote in the National
Assembly. Led by former Prime Minister Martinho N'Dafa Cabi, the
government improved public finance accountability, restarted IMF
post-conflict assistance loans, and achieved modest success reaching
out to the international community for help in fighting drug
trafficking. Unfortunately, political struggles within the National
Assembly distracted elected officials from overseeing government
expenditures and producing legislation to tackle the difficult
problems facing Guinea-Bissau, in particular the reform of its
security and public sectors. In a country with no industry and few
business opportunities, most elites, like the rest of the
population, see government as the only viable employer. This
problem is compounded by an outsized military composed
disproportionately of officers who are also veterans of the 1998
civil war. The result is a political process intensely focused on
self-interest and survival rather than political, social, or
economic development, making government and military officials
particularly vulnerable to the temptation of narcotics-fueled
corruption.

Newly-Elected Prime Minister off to Shaky Start
--------------


4. (SBU) While Guinea-Bissau continued to make considerable, if
halting, progress in consolidating its democracy with the successful
2008 legislative elections, which Embassy Dakar officers observed as
a part of the UN's official observer mission, Prime Minister Gomes
does not have as strong a mandate as election results suggest. The
Prime Minister and President dislike each other intensely and have
been at loggerheads in the past regarding the proper role (and
authority) of their respective offices. Gomes is also feuding with
members of his own party in the National Assembly as a result of
personal grievances and complaints about cabinet and government
appointments. As a result, the Prime Minister has been forced to
rely on the opposition to elect his candidate for chair of the
National Assembly and the government's program, leading many to
speculate that the government might fall in the near future in spite
of the ruling party's overwhelming majority in the National
Assembly.


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President and Military Chief of Staff at Odds
--------------


5. (SBU) In addition to his conflict with the Prime Minister, the
relationship between President Vieira and Armed Forces Chief of
Staff General Tagme Na Wai is another source of political
instability in Guinea-Bissau. The two were on opposite sides during
the civil war and have a troubled personal relationship, although it
was Na Wai who facilitated the return of Vieira from his exile in
Guinea in 2005. Following the legislative elections, a group of
dissidents in the military attempted to assassinate the President.
While it is still unclear who is responsible (most point the finger
toward former President Kumba Yala or former Naval Chief of Staff
Jose Americo Bubo Na Tchute, who has been heavily implicated in
narcotics trafficking) it is widely believed that Na Wai's efforts
to defend the President were lackluster. This led President Vieira
to create a presidential security detail of loyalists under the
auspices of the Ministry of the Interior. However, Na Wai's
subsequent objection resulted in the force being disbanded almost
immediately.

Geography Plus Poverty Makes Guinea-Bissau a Traffickers' Paradise
--------------


6. (SBU) Guinea-Bissau is one of the poorest, least-developed
countries in the world. It ranked 171 out of 177 countries in the
2008 Human Development Index and has a virtually unpoliced
archipelago consisting of more than 90 islands. This unprotected
coastline and unregulated Exclusive Economic Zone is a haven for
narcotics trafficking, due to an utter lack of law enforcement and
security capacity in terms of both human and material resources.
The economy has never recovered from the effects of the civil war,
leaving the government unable to pay public sector salaries. As a
result, the enormous profitability of facilitating the transit of
cocaine from Latin America to Europe continues to corrupt political
and security officials and to undermine the rule of law. This puts
the country at great risk of becoming a narco-state and by mid-2008
Guinea-Bissau appeared to be a destination of choice for drug
traffickers, even as they have expanded their activities in other
West African countries. An estimated 800-1000 kilograms of cocaine
are flown every night into Guinea Bissau and an unspecified quantity
is increasingly making its way by sea from Latin America. Many of
the government and military's most senior officials are now
suspected of orchestrating or facilitating trafficking, while
low-level officials are particularly susceptible to bribes, as most
government workers go months at a time without receiving salaries.



7. (SBU) Although the country enjoyed a good harvest for the vital
cashew crop in 2008, significant challenges in all sectors inhibit
the progress and stability Guinea-Bissau needs to capitalize on its
agricultural and natural resources potential. Power shortages and
crumbling infrastructure cripple economic output and make life
difficult for the population of 1.6 million. Ongoing domestic
instability and poor governance have further eroded already
debilitated education and health care systems.

Vulnerable to AQIM
--------------


8. (SBU) Al-Qaeda in the Land of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
terrorists also transit the country regularly. In spite of the fact
that the GOGB arrested AQIM elements who sought temporary safe haven
in Bissau in January 2008, such activity confirms that the country
is vulnerable to terrorist influence. This development is all the
more troubling, given the significantly increased activity of AQIM
in the region. To help achieve stability in West Africa, a
sustained democratic transition in Guinea-Bissau is a critical step
toward pushing the traffickers out of the country and denying
terrorists a possible base of operations.

Security Sector Reform Linked to CN and Political Stability
--------------


9. (SBU) The National Assembly has adopted a security sector reform
(SSR) strategy. The EU is leading an effort to provide technical
assistance in support of this strategy. SSR is key to both
counternarcotics efforts -- military and civilian law enforcement
officials are implicated in trafficking -- and establishing
long-term political stability -- the vast majority of officers and
soldiers are members of the Balanta ethnic group and regard SSR as a
way of taking away their political power. Guinea-Bissau has nine
law enforcement agencies; the national SSR strategy calls for

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reducing that number to four. Prime Minister Gomes has appointed
the former Minister of Justice, Carmelita Pires, as the government
coordinator for both SSR and CN. Gomes will chair inter-ministerial
committees providing oversight for both issues.

Demining and Explosive Ordinance Removal
--------------


10. (SBU) Mines and unexploded ordnance (UXO) continue to pose a
humanitarian and socio-economic threat to local and regional
populations. A landmine impact survey conducted in 2006 identified
31 out of 32 sectors of the country still have mine and other
explosive remnants of war (ERW) contamination. This contamination
poses not only a physical threat, it prevents subsistence farming
and cash crop harvesting in affected areas and planned
rehabilitation projects are impeded by lack of access to
conflict-affected communities. Continued U.S. support through NGOs
will ensure our investment in building a national demining and
Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) capability realizes the objectives
of returning land to productive use and improving stability and
safety through the destruction of excess and unstable military
munitions and weapons. With modest support to sustain the capacity
developed so far, Guinea-Bissau could become free of ERW within five
years.

Economic Growth Is Long-Term CN Strategy
--------------


11. (SBU) The best counter-narcotics strategy in Guinea-Bissau will
ultimately fail if it is not supported by an aggressive effort to
improve the incomes of Bissau-Guineans. Poor economic policies on
cashew exports that hurt revenues in 2006 were reversed in 2007 and

2008. This reform, along with a combination of better rains and
higher commodity prices, helped the weak economy rebound slightly.
Petroleum exploration continues offshore, but exploitation of a
commercially viable source is years away. Foreign investors from
China, Angola, Senegal, and other countries are searching for
opportunities in other sectors, including restarting bauxite and
phosphates mining, tourism to take advantage of untouched natural
beauty and sport fishing, and higher-value commercial fisheries. It
is clear, however, that substantial development of the country's
agricultural resources is the most promising avenue to economic
development. Unfortunately, the most significant current economic
activity remains the proceeds and bribes related to drug
trafficking, including laundering money into houses, hotels, and
cars.

Bottom Line
--------------


12. (SBU) Guinea-Bissau is destined to remain at dire risk of
becoming a narco-state unless it implements urgently needed security
sector reform while concurrently fighting narcotics trafficking and
promoting economic growth. This will take significant input from
donor countries in the form of material, training, and technical and
operation assistance, as well as support for wider public sector
reform and development assistance to jump start the country's
economy.

BERNICAT