Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09DAKAR1329
2009-10-26 07:55:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dakar
Cable title:  

SENEGAL: OPPOSITION LEADER CLAIMS BISSAU-GUINEA

Tags:  PGOV PREL PU SG 
pdf how-to read a cable
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3245
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RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
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RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 001329 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, INR/AF

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PU SG
SUBJECT: SENEGAL: OPPOSITION LEADER CLAIMS BISSAU-GUINEA
DESERTERS JOIN MFDC REBELS IN CASAMANCE

REF: DAKAR 01261

Classified By: Ambassador Marcia S. Bernicat for reasons 1.5 B/D.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 001329

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, INR/AF

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PU SG
SUBJECT: SENEGAL: OPPOSITION LEADER CLAIMS BISSAU-GUINEA
DESERTERS JOIN MFDC REBELS IN CASAMANCE

REF: DAKAR 01261

Classified By: Ambassador Marcia S. Bernicat for reasons 1.5 B/D.


1. (C) Summary: On October 9, Abdoulaye Bathily, secretary
general of the opposition Democratic League/Movement for the
Labor Party (LD/MPT),solicited a meeting with Political
Counselor to express his concern about recent events in
Senegal's Casamance region. Bathily informed PolCouns that,
according to information gathered by his party members in the
region, Movement of Democratic Forces in the Casamance (MFDC)
rebels are in the process of rearming and a significant
portion of the weapons are arriving from Guinea Bissau.
Moreover, members of the Bissau-Guinean armed forces involved
in the March assassinations of the president and armed forces
chief of staff in Guinea-Bissau, have deserted the
Bissau-Guinean armed forces, with their arms, and taken
refuge in the MFDC's camps along the border with Senegal and
in Casamance, apparently out of fear of prosecution that will
ostensibly follow the ongoing investigation into the
assassinations. Bathily also claimed that narcotics
traffickers have entered into agreements with MFDC fighters
for smuggling purposes and that this is a source of funding
in the rearmament process. When asked by the Ambassador,
Senegalese Foreign Affairs Minister Madicke Niang and MOF
Chief of Staff Mankeur Ndiaye denied that there was any
Bissau-Guinean involvement in the recent upturn in violence,
insisting that the GOGB was taking every appropriate measure
to combat the MFDC. End summary.

The Conflict May Escalate
--------------


2. (C) Bathily told PolCouns that he decided to contact the
US Embassy out of concern for a potential escalation in the
conflict. He said he had shared this information with a very
limited number of opposition leaders. However, he had no
intention of sharing this information with the GOS, given
what he believes to be President Abdoulaye Wade's feckless
handling of the Casamance conflict. Bathily said that it was
his concern regarding an escalation of the conflict, combined
with the emergence of narcotics trafficking, that led him to
share with the Embassy his information. In his view and

based on information he has received from his party members
in the Casamance, the nature of the conflict is changing;
rebels will attack soldiers of the Senegalese army rather
than simply target civilians for robberies, as recently
witnessed (reftel).


3. (C) Bathily corroborated reports that recent attacks
against the armed forces were carried out by young dissidents
in the southern faction of the MFDC.
As a result, he claimed that the MFDC faction of Salif Sadio,
the most hard-line MFDC rebel chief, is now taking steps to
become more active than previously. Allegedly, Sadio, who is
supported by Gambian President Yahya Jammeh, is loath to
allow initiative to shift to the MFDC faction(s) in the
southern Casamance. (Note: President Jammeh has recently
called for a cease-fire in the Casamance. End note.) Bathily
alleged that the Senegalese army has poor intelligence and
lacks both the resources and manpower to wage a serious
counterinsurgency campaign in Casamance. He was dismissive
of President Wade's past efforts to buy off and divide and
conquer the rebels, arguing that this strategy had merely set
the stage for current events. (Comment: According to some
reports, younger rebels were either tired of not getting
their share of the &buy-off8 money or believe their senior
leaders have sold out to Wade. End Comment)

Drug traffickers Cut a Deal with Rebels
--------------


4. (C) Bathily insisted that narcotics traffickers have
established some kind of agreement with MFDC rebels. He
believes that these agreements have enabled MFDC rebels to
acquire new weaponry and perhaps cash. The danger, in his
view, is that traffickers will use the waterways in the
Casamance as smuggling routes. The trafficking may extend to
the Saloum delta midway along the Senegalese coast and just
north of the Gambia. He urged the United States, in its
efforts to fight transnational crime, to pay attention to
this evolution and also push President Wade to make finding a
resolution of the Casamance conflict a priority.


DAKAR 00001329 002 OF 002


GOS Skeptical (or Not Aware) of Bissau-Guinea Presence
-------------- --------------


5. (C) On October 19, Ambassador Bernicat met with newly
appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs Niang and discussed,
inter alia, the Casamance conflict. Asked about the possible
of involvement of MFDC rebels, the Minister and his Chief of
Staff Ndiaye expressed skepticism but were non-committal with
Ndiaye saying, "We do not have any information on that."
However, both insisted that the GOGB (contrary to earlier
reports) is cooperating with regard to the MFDC and is taking
appropriate measures to contain the rebels.


6. (C) When Army Attache queried Senegalese interlocutors
about the possibility of the presence of Bissau-Guinean
deserters taking up arms with the MFDC to escape prosecution
for the March assassinations, they dismissed the notion out
of hand, noting that the unit of newly confirmed
Bissau-Guinean Deputy Chief of Staff Colonel Antonio Injai
was responsible for the assassination of former President
Vieira. Therefore, it is unlikely that Bissau-Guinean
soldiers involved in Vieira's assassination would have
anything to fear. (Comment: While it is true that soldiers
involved in Vieira's death have no reason at the moment to
flee potential prosecution, those suspected of involvement in
the killing of former Chief of Staff General Batiste Tagme Na
Wai would have every reason to flee, given that Na Wai's
nephew and protg, Injai, has already carried out the
assassination of Vieira in revenge for his uncle's death and,
it is credibly reported, tortured people suspected of
involvement in the general's death. Moreover, Bissau-Guinean
soldiers of limited means and education would not have many
other options if they chose to flee. Finally, it is also
possible that some might have familial or other ties to
people of the Casamance. End comment.)


7. (C) Comment: If it were not such a credible and senior
figure making the charge, it would be easy to be dismissive
of the possibility of Bissau-Guinean deserters taking up arms
with the MFDC. However, Bathily is a former minister under
Wade and a senior opposition leader. So, while it is by no
means a given that his allegations are accurate, it is a
cause for concern and merits further scrutiny. He is
undoubtedly correct that an MFDC alliance or compact with
traffickers could easily lead to a significant escalation in
violence in the Casamance and fundamentally alter the nature
of the conflict. Senegalese military in Casamance say they
would be ill-equipped to fight such a threat.


8. (C) Regarding Bathily,s request that the USG push
President Wade to resolve the Casamance dispute, Post has
proposed to various interlocutors, including President Wade,
that the U.S. would be willing to consider providing its
expertise in demobilization of MFDC members once an agreement
is reached. We have emphasized the newer dangers narcotics
trafficking and the instability in Guinea-Bissau pose to this
already volatile region. The U.S. Government has invested
significantly in the Casamance: USD 1.3 million in FY09
funding will continue USAID efforts to support the peace
process, State has provided funding Handicap International to
continue its demining efforts and roughly half of the
newly-signed USD 540 million MCC Compact will improve roads
and irrigation systems to increase food production in the
region, to be further augmented by President Obama,s Food
Security Initiative. Escalating fighting threatens to
undermine all of these initiatives.
BERNICAT