BENIN: PRESIDENT YAYI FORMS POLITICAL COALITION

UNCLAS COTONOU 000222

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W ACOOK
LONDON FOR PETER LORD
PARIS FOR BKANEDA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BN
SUBJECT: BENIN: PRESIDENT YAYI FORMS POLITICAL COALITION

REFERENCE: COTONOU 200


1. (U) SUMMARY: On May 16, President Yayi officially launched the
Union for Presidential Plural Majority (UMPP),a coalition made up
of various political parties, associations and movements, with the
purpose of rallying supporters for the 2011 presidential election.
The UMPP appears to complement pro-Yayi Front Cowry for the
Emergence of Benin (FCBE) which is showing signs of strain due to
internal rivalries. By creating this new coalition, Yayi intends to
invite political forces to side with him and to endorse his
candidacy in the 2011 presidential race.
END SUMMARY.


2. (U) On May 16, President Yayi presided over the ceremony for the
official kick off of the Union for Presidential Plural Majority
(UMPP). Ministers, political figures and supporters attended the
ceremony. The UMPP is made up of 80 political parties and 150
political movements including various associations. In his opening
address, Idrissou Ibrahima, the UMPP's spokesman, explained that the
UMPP aimed on the one hand to support Yayi's policies for a
successful mandate, and on the other hand to secure his re-election
in 2011 through securing a comfortable majority in the National
Assembly. Idrissou pointed out that the creation of the UMPP was
President Yayi's adequate response to the opposition's increased
effort to have power change hands in the 2011 presidential election
(Reftel). He said that the UMPP sought to provide a concerted
framework for the promotion of patriotism, peace, unity and
tolerance in order to strengthen democracy, solidarity and
liberties. He outlined that component parties and associations of
the UMPP would keep their autonomy while coordinating political
efforts to support Yayi. However, members should publicly declare
their support for Yayi's agenda for the advancement of Benin.


3. (SBU) In his speech, Yayi told the audience that the UMPP is a
coalition of parties that are concerned about the development of
Benin. He stated that he had no political party and that he was the
President of every Beninese citizen. He called on every willing
political party to join the UMPP. The president's personal
involvement in the ceremony is a clear sign to the opposition that
he is committed to playing a more pro-active role in channeling
political support towards his reelection in 2011. Many observers
believe that Yayi has now put in place heavy artillery for the 2011
presidential election in response to the opposition's determination
to defeat him (Reftel).


4. (U) On May 7, eleven deputies belonging to the FCBE formed their
own parliamentary group and declared that they still supported Yayi.
However, the active part that Wallis Zoumarou, a member of the G 13
and declared adversary to Yayi, played in the formation of this
parliamentary group has puzzled everyone as to the true intention of
its members. In addition to this, there have been reliable reports
of growing dissatisfaction within the FCBE, whose prominent members
openly voice disagreement during parliamentary sessions in the
National Assembly. The candidacy of Bio Tchane, announced by some
opposition members, may also account for the creation of the UMPP.
The UMPP appears poised to absorb members who are reluctant to
defect from the contentious opposition group to join the FCBE
because of conflicts opposing them to certain FCBE members. Since
the UMPP is a coalition with new directions, its members will likely
enjoy more freedom of action, while supporting Yayi's policies.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: Yayi and his supporters are now in battle order
for the 2011 presidential election. A source close to the presidency
told Post that Yayi is really concerned about the possible candidacy
of Bio Tchane and as a result is taking no chances. Pundits believe,
however, that the UMPP contains the seeds of its own disintegration
because members of FCBE and UMPP will likely oppose each other and
jockey for position. END COMMENT.

BOUSTANI