BENIN: POLITICAL UPDATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COTONOU 000200

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W ACOOK
LONDON FOR PETER LORD
PARIS FOR BKANEDA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BN
SUBJECT: BENIN: POLITICAL UPDATE

REFERENCE: (A) 08 COTONOU 201; (B) 08 COTONOU 795 AND PREVIOUS; (C)
COTONOU 186


1. (U) SUMMARY: Politicians have engaged in early and thinly veiled
campaigning ahead of the 2011 presidential election. Some members of
the contentious opposition have solicited the candidacy of Bio
Tchane, a former Minister of Finance in Kerekou's administration, to
challenge President Yayi in the 2011 presidential election while
President Yayi's ministers have increased outreach efforts to
support his agenda and publicize his achievements. Yayi has secured
a very unstable majority in the National Assembly with the defection
of a few deputies from the opposition G-13 to the Pro-Yayi Front
Cowry for the Emergence of Benin (FCBE) and vice-versa. Tensions and
personalized attacks are prevalent in the National Assembly where
the government tries to push outstanding bills. END SUMMARY.







--------------
Early Electoral
Campaigning
--------------


2. (SBU) President Yayi and his ministers have recently started to
make extensive trips nationwide to kick off community projects and
to attend groundbreaking ceremonies for infrastructure projects.
Though these trips are consistent with Yayi's economic agenda for
the emergence of Benin, many political observers view them as part
of an overall strategy to increase popularity and engineer support
for the 2011 presidential election. A case in point is the April
mobilization of Yayi's cabinet to select cultivable lands and equip
local communities with agricultural machines as part of the
implementation of the government's ambitious agricultural
development project. This event, which received heavy media
coverage, was regarded by the opposition as a precocious pre
electoral campaign activity. A few suspicious politicians blame Yayi
for allegedly using government projects and means for
electioneering. (Ref A).


3. (SBU) The G-13, made up of business men, is frustrated inasmuch
as Yayi has prevented it from accessing illegal sources of funding
through anti-corruption measures he has taken since he became
president. As a rule, the opposition's early electoral campaigning
is more obvious, and very often takes the form of personalized
attacks on Yayi and vitriolic statements against his policies (Ref
B).

--------------
Opposition prepares a Challenger
for the 2011 Presidential Elections
--------------


4. (U) On April 26, Wallis Zoumarou, a FCBE deputy who defected in
December 2008 from this group and joined the G-13 announced on
television the candidacy of Bio Abdoulaye Tchane, a former Minister
of Finance in Kerekou's administration, in the 2011 presidential
elections and pledged that he would support him. Likewise, the G-13
officially declared its support for Bio Tchane's candidacy (in the
2011 presidential race) and has started coordinating marches
supporting him in the north of Benin.


5. (U) On the margins of the signature of a West-African Development
Bank (BOAD)loan agreement for a road construction in northern Benin,
Abdoulaye Bio Tchane, the president of the BOAD and former President
Kerekou's Minister of Finance told the press that he was aware
Beninese were concerned about his candidacy in the 2011 presidential
election. He said that he could not speak to the issue since
elections were still two years ahead. However, everybody has
regarded his trip to Benin as a sign that he would join the race in

2011. Many politicians concede that Bio Tchane will be a serious
challenger to president Yayi, in consideration of his economic
background and the strategy that politicians put in place to rally
supporters for him.


6. (U) The USD 16 million that the BOAD granted Benin is meant for
the restoration and asphalting of the road linking Djougou to Ouake
in northwestern Benin, Department of Donga, Bio Tchane's home
district. It is clear that this move will increase his popularity in
this particular area because possible supporters will likely credit
him with this development project. Also, in early February, Bio
Tchane made a trip to Djougou, a neighbor city to his hometown
(Semere, located a few miles away),to gage his popularity. It is
noteworthy that Yayi engaged in a similar exercise prior to his

COTONOU 00000200 002 OF 002


candidacy in the March 2006 presidential election, launching several
BOAD-funded projects and engaging local communities, which
tremendously increased his popularity.


7. (U) Begin biographic note: Aboudoulaye Bio Tchane was born in
1952, in Northwest Benin. After primary and secondary school
education, he travelled to France where he obtained a masters degree
in economics. Later on, he obtained a diploma in Islamic Banking.
Then Director of the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)
Charles Konan Bani named him Vice Governor of the bank, where he
worked from 1992 to 1998, when former president Kerekou appointed
him Minister of Economy and Finance in his government. In January
2002 he was named African Director for the International Monetary
Fund. In January 2008, he was appointed President of the BOAD by
country members of the Economic Community of West African States
(ECOWAS),replacing Yayi Boni who won the presidency in March 2006.
He is divorced and has three children. End note.







--------------
Deputies' Defection
sparks Polemics
--------------


8. (SBU) On April 21, Rachidi Gbamadassi, an outspoken and fierce
opponent to president Yayi and active member of the G-13, announced
in a press conference his defection from this group to the FCBE. His
unexpected departure from the G-13 sparked fanciful rumors by
politicians and the local press. One of these rumors says that he
was allegedly bribed into joining the FCBE with USD 4 million (CFA 2
billion). Some FCBE members have viewed this affinity with the FCBE
in an unfavorable light since Gbadamassi is a controversial business
man and political figure. As the Mayor of Parakou, he faced charges
in the November 2005 murder of Severin Coovi, President of Parakou's
Court of Appeals. He was arrested and held in custody for five
months before his temporary release in April 2006. Conversely,
FCBE's Deputy Chabi Tokou Dare resigned from FCBE and sided with the
G 13 in April, complaining about FCBE methods.


9. (SBU) Developments in the National Assembly have indicated a
possible alliance of the Renaissance du Benin party (RB) and the
FCBE since December 2008 when Rosine Soglo, the president of the RB,
pushed her party into adopting the 2009 budget and more recently
when she backed the adoption of the bill on the LEPI (Ref C). A
source close to the president of the party confirmed to post that an
undermining conflict within the party opposed the RB group willing
to join FCBE and those RB members who wanted to stick to the
opposition G-4. The first group backs Galiou Soglo, Rosine's
youngest son and Yayi's minister of Youth, Sports and Leisure who
entered the government in June 2007. While the RB complained that
Yayi did not consult them before appointing him. Rosine is said to
be putting pressure on the RB to have it allied with the FCBE. The
opposing group within the party, led by Lehady Soglo, Rosine's
eldest son and Deputy Major of Cotonou, chooses to stay with the G-4
because he does not trust Yayi. The issue is pitting factions of the
Soglo family against one another.


10. (SBU) COMMENT: No one can predict the outcome of the 2011
presidential election because of constantly shifting political tides
in Benin. Political scientists and journalists have ventured to
present various scenarios based on fragile hypotheses. However, all
agree that if Bio Tchane runs in the 2011 race, he will be a serious
contender. Post will provide further comment on this issue as the
political situation develops.

BROWN