(SBU) HEDEGAARD TO EU COMMISSION AFTER COP-15; SUCCESSOR

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SUBJECT: (SBU) HEDEGAARD TO EU COMMISSION AFTER COP-15; SUCCESSOR
LIKELY TO DEFER, THEN FOLLOW EXAMPLE

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1. (SBU) Summary: Danish Prime Minister Rasmussen on November 24
named Connie Hedegaard as Denmark's EU Commissioner; she is expected
to get the climate portfolio. He named Copenhagen University
Vice-rector Lykke Friis as Hedegaard's replacement as Minister of
Climate and Energy. Hedegaard will retain her role and cabinet rank
for the upcoming climate conference (COP-15)--Rasmussen named her
"Minister for the UN's Climate Conference in Copenhagen"--through
the end of the conference. Friis is known as an EU expert but is a
relative newcomer to politics. She is well known to the Embassy and
expected to continue Hedegaard's efforts to promote PM Rasmussen's
proposed political deal at COP-15 and to continue Hedegaard's
activist role in international negotiations after Hedegaard's
departure for Brussels. The cabinet change is seen as
strengthening Rasmussen's governing Liberal Party, at the expense of
Hedegaard's Conservative Party, who will lose a high-profile figure
popular with voters to Brussels. Driven by internal EU politics,
the Hedegaard-Friis shift is unlikely to affect Denmark's continued
advocacy of a comprehensive politically-binding climate agreement in
Copenhagen. End Summary.

REACTION POSITIVE
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2. (U) Social Democratic opposition leader Helle Thorning-Schmidt
praised Friis for her personal qualities but charged that she might
not fit in the governing coalition. "I doubt whether Lykke Friis
will be able to accept that generally, it's the Danish People's
Party that has the final say on most issues. And at the heart of
the Liberal Party there are still many who believe that all this
speculation about the climate is pure nonsense," she said. Pia
Kjaersgaard, leader of the Danish People's Party on which the ruling
coalition depends, urged PM Rasmussen to make more dramatic cabinet
changes to refresh the governing coalition. She said: "This
government is looking very tired and it would freshen things up if
the PM's New Year speech contained some new initiatives and new
ministers." Kjaersgaard added: "The government knows it's worn out
and that's why they had to bring in an outsider, Ms. Friis, to the
climate ministry. I find that incredible."


3. (U) Biographic Information: Lykke Friis (dob 10/27/69) became
vice rector of Copenhagen University in 2006. While new to
electoral politics (reportedly joining the Liberal Party just days
before being named minister),Friis is a recognized expert on
political and EU affairs. The politics of the EU has been her main
academic and professional field of interest. She earned a Master's
Degree from the London School of Economics in 1992, and in 1994 was
a Robert Schuman Scholar at the European Parliament. In 1997 she
earned her doctorate from the University of Copenhagen, in Political
Science. Friis served as Director of European Affairs (2003-06) for
the Danish Confederation of Industries. From 1996-2002 she served
in different capacities at the Danish Institute of International
Affairs, a government-supported think tank.


4. (U) Friis' recent book, called "Oysters at Kampinski," was her
fifth about Europe and the EU. She has lectured at various Danish
universities, writes a column in two leading Danish newspapers, and
is a frequent political commentator on Danish radio and television.
She has participated on various Danish honorary boards, including
the government's Climate Commission from 2007-2009, and has won
various awards. Friis has been a member of the Trilateral
Commission since 2004 and was named in 1999-2000 as Denmark's
representative to the Nordic "Wise Men" Grouping.


5. (SBU) Friis is highly dynamic, outgoing, and loves to use humor
in her public presentations. Friis' family background is German.
She is married but has no children. She visited the U.S. on a group
IVLP on U.S. Foreign Policy in the fall of 1999, and won an
Eisenhower fellowship in 2002. Friis has been active with the
Embassy, attending Embassy functions and serving as an advisor on a
number of Embassy programs, including minority issues and the
Fulbright Commission.

COMMENT
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6. (SBU) Thus far, Hedegaard's future EU assignment has not had any
discernable impact on her advocacy of Denmark's pragmatic push for a
political agreement at COP-15, and she has publicly affirmed that
she will represent Denmark's interest as host nation until she takes
up her new assignment in Brussels. We are told by her aides not to
expect any shift before COP-15 ends.


7. (SBU) For her part, Friis is likely to defer to Rasmussen and
Hedegaard's leadership during COP-15, and then vigorously promote
Rasmussen's vision after Hedegaard leaves to take up her post in
Brussels. Hedegaard's advisors tell us she and Friis do not know

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each other well, but that Friis is expected to avoid pushing any
national position that would complicate matters for the COP-15 chair
(initially Hedegaard, followed by Rasmussen during the high level
segment Dec 16-19). The analogy they draw is to the norm for EU
nations occupying the EU presidency.


8. (SBU) After COP-15 ends and Hedegaard departs for Brussels, we
expect Friis to assume a greater role in Danish climate
policy-making, following Hedegaard's example of vigorous pursuit of
international negotiations toward a legally binding climate
agreement.

FULTON