Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09COPENHAGEN523
2009-11-20 17:06:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Copenhagen
Cable title:  

DENMARK POLITICAL ROUND-UP

Tags:  PREL PGOV ECON MARR DA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHCP #0523/01 3241706
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 201706Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5331
INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0091
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO BRUSSELS BE 1133
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
C O N F I D E N T I A L COPENHAGEN 000523 

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/NB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON MARR DA
SUBJECT: DENMARK POLITICAL ROUND-UP

REF: COPENHAGEN 435 (NOTAL)

Classified By: Ambassador Laurie S. Fulton; reason 1.4 (b, d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L COPENHAGEN 000523

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/NB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON MARR DA
SUBJECT: DENMARK POLITICAL ROUND-UP

REF: COPENHAGEN 435 (NOTAL)

Classified By: Ambassador Laurie S. Fulton; reason 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C/NF) This is the first in a periodic series of cables
summarizing notable political developments in Denmark. In
this issue: Denmark's EU opt-outs; Afghanistan debate;
Defense Minister weakened; budget negotiations; gang war; EU
Commissioner speculation; upcoming local elections.

(U) EU OPT-OUTS
--------------


2. (SBU) The governing coalition's platform includes a
pledge to hold a referendum this parliamentary term on ending
Denmark's EU opt-outs (defense, currency, justice/home
affairs - a fourth, citizenship, has been overtaken by
events). Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen indicated
publicly October 30 that his preferred strategy was to have a
single referendum on all of the opt-outs; he admitted he had
no imminent plans for such a vote. As he noted, Denmark does
not currently qualify to join the euro, as its deficit for
2010 is projected at 5 percent of GDP, well above the 3
percent limit. Rasmussen called a meeting for November 25
with all the pro-EU political parties represented in the
parliament, to hear their views. The anti-EU parties in
parliament are the right-wing Danish People's Party (DPP) and
the far-left Unity List. The governing coalition relies on
the DPP to remain in power: without it, the Government would
be 25 votes short of a majority in the 179-seat parliament.


3. (C) The PM's Chief Adviser for EU policy Jens Kisling
told the Embassy November 4 there will be no referendum
without firm consensus among the pro-EU parties, and it is
not clear where the parties stand: the main opposition party
SDP wants a single referendum, but its ally the Socialist
People's Party (SPP) still opposes joining the euro. Opinion
polls are not encouraging, and in general, it is politically
foolish to call a referendum before a national election.
This point is especially relevant now, as the PM has no
mandate of his own from the people: he succeeded Anders Fogh
Rasmussen without an election last April when the latter

became NATO Secretary General. He does not need to call a
national election until November 2011. According to press
reports, the SPP and the smaller opposition party the Social
Liberals want to amend the justice/home affairs opt-out
rather than abolishing it. This would enable Denmark to keep
its own position on asylum and its minimum age of 24 (higher
than the EU minimum) to sponsor a spouse for residency, while
"opting in" on EU police and counter-terrorism cooperation.
Ireland and the UK have similar arrangements, according to
Lisbet Zilmer-Johns, Senior Adviser in the PM's Office.

(U) AFGHANISTAN DEBATE
--------------


4. (SBU) On November 4, the conservative daily newspaper
Jyllands Posten carried front-page statements by
representatives of the unions of commissioned and
non-commissioned officers in Denmark's armed forces,
condemning Afghanistan's "election scandal" and "President
without legitimacy," and calling the mission "meaningless."
Spokesmen for the governing parties and the opposition Social
Liberals defended the mission, while main opposition party
SDP called for refocusing the mission on protecting the
population and training Afghan security forces. Foreign
Minister Per Stig Moeller rebuked the union representatives:
"This is outright dangerous for our soldiers, because the
more we talk about wanting to get out, the more difficult it
becomes to be a moderate or progress-minded Afghan. They
will think, who's to protect us when these guys are quitting
anyway?" PM Rasmussen emphasized the need to focus on goals,
not deadlines, vowing "We will stay in Afghanistan until we
have created a much more stable country. If we start
questioning this, we are in reality supporting the people who
would rather see us leave." The centrist daily newspaper
Politiken, until now very supportive of the Afghanistan
mission, editorialized "we can no longer support a war which
no longer has prospects for success and which creates more
problems than it solves," demanding "a clear strategy for
getting out." On the other hand, an op-ed in Jyllands Posten
noted that "the soldiers who are the closest to the reality
are those who believe most of all that it all makes sense.
They have seen it on patrols in Helmand. And they are ready
to go out again." Several commentators noted the need to
await the outcome of the U.S. strategy review.

(C/NF) DEFENSE MINISTER WEAKENED
--------------


5. (C/NF) Defense Minister Soeren Gade, until now the most
effective advocate of Denmark's Afghan deployment, has been
weakened by the bizarre case of a book on Danish commando
practices that was translated into Arabic and posted on the
internet by members of Denmark's defense establishment
(reftel). While there is no indication that Gade or any
other politician knew anything about that deceptive attempt
to show the book posed a security threat, Gade at least
inadvertently misled parliament. The Chief of Defense,
Admiral Tim Sloth Joergensen - who appears not to have known
about the deception either - resigned October 4 after the
involvement of Defense Command personnel in the affair came
to light. His successor was just announced November 10: Lt.
Gen. Knud Bartels, Denmark's Military Representative to NATO.
Observers of the Danish political scene assess that Gade
would normally be much more pro-active in defending the
Afghan mission than he has been since the book scandal broke.

(U) BUDGET NEGOTIATIONS
--------------


6. (SBU) At 1:30 a.m. November 12, the government and its
support party DPP finalized negotiations on the 2010 budget.
It will include a DKK 5 billion (approx. USD 1 billion)
stimulus package to improve infrastructure; the DPP had
wanted DKK 8 billion. The budget also provides, among other
things, added funds for care of the elderly, initiatives
against youth- and gang-related crime, and support to the
police and intelligence services in connection with COP 15.
The Government projects a deficit of DKK 90 billion (approx.
USD 18 billion). At the DPP's behest, a special repatriation
allowance for immigrants giving up their permanent residency
will be nearly quadrupled to DKK 100,000 from DKK 27,406, and
the minimum age for that allowance lowered from 60 to 55.
The negotiations between the Government and the DPP followed
a brief spat in which the opposition walked out of talks
aimed at generating consensus on the Globalization Fund; the
SDP and SPP objected to the Government's desire to withhold
allowances from 15-17 year-olds not in school, training or
work. The contretemps was resolved when the PM made clear
this policy would not be handled through the Globalization
Fund.


7. (C/NF) The final stages of the negotiations highlighted
emerging tensions between the governing coalition and the
DPP, their traditional partner on the budget. Budget
negotiations for the past several years have proceeded
smoothly, with little disagreement over the final product.
This year, the DPP has been more assertive in its role as the
indispensable support party (without its 25 seats, the
governing coalition would be 25 votes short of a majority in
parliament),by raising last-minute, populist demands,
centering on the placement of a regional hospital. The
absence of the PM during much of the budget negotiations (he
has been traveling to generate support for COP-15
negotiations, and has spent much of his time in-country
campaigning for his party's candidates in the November 17
local and regional elections) led to a lack of discipline in
the final stages of negotiation. Although the budget
agreement was announced, there are continued signs of
friction between the DPP and the governing coalition, perhaps
because the DPP is testing the PM and Finance Minister Claus
Hjort Frederiksen during their first budget negotiations in
their current positions.

(U) GANG WAR
--------------


8. (SBU) By Danish standards, there has been a worrying
upsurge in violence between outlaw motorcycle gangs and
immigrant gangs, largely over drug turf: 110 shootings, 59
wounded and seven killed in the past year. During her
November 3 visit, DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano offered
assistance, noting that the U.S. has a great deal of
experience in this area; Justice Minister Brian Mikkelsen
responded with interest.

(U) EU COMMISSIONER SPECULATION
--------------


9. (SBU) Climate and Energy Minister Connie Hedegaard is
the public-opinion favorite to be Denmark's new EU
Commissioner when the new Commission takes office in January.
The assumption is that she would then get the climate
portfolio. FM Moeller, like her a member of the junior
coalition party Conservatives, is on record as saying she
would make a fine Commissioner. PM Lars Loekke Rasmussen has
delayed making a decision on whom to nominate for Brussels;
normally it would be someone from his own party Venstre, the
senior member of the ruling coalition. Venstre politicians
have floated the name of Education Minister Bertel Haarder, a
former Minister for European Affairs and a member of the
European Parliament from 1994 to 2001. Development Minister
Ulla Toernaes also has some support.

(U) LOCAL ELECTIONS
--------------


10. (SBU) Danes went to the polls Tuesday, November 17 to
elect municipal and regional councils (septel). If recent
history is any guide, the outcome does not/not provide any
clear indication of the various parties' prospects in the
next general (national) election, which is not required until
November 2011 but could be called earlier by the PM. Foreign
permanent residents can vote in local - but not national -
elections.
FULTON