(SBU) DANISH PEOPLE'S PARTY MP SPECULATES FM

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SUBJECT: (SBU) DANISH PEOPLE'S PARTY MP SPECULATES FM
MOELLER MAY SOON RETIRE

REF: COPENHAGEN 435

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1. (SBU) Summary. MP Soren Espersen, Danish People's Party
(DPP) foreign policy spokesman, told Poloffs Foreign Minister
Per Stig Moeller may retire soon in favor of rising
Conservative party star Connie Hedegaard, Minister for
Climate and Energy. Espersen's party supports the
Liberal-Conservative coalition government from the outside.
Espersen shared the widely-held view that PM Lars Loekke
Rasmussen will reshuffle the cabinet after COP-15 to make the
government clearly his own (he inherited it when his
predecessor Anders Fogh Rasmussen became NATO Secretary
General). Espersen expected the PM not to call a referendum
this parliamentary term on ending Denmark's EU
"opt-outs"(justice/home affairs, monetary and defense
policy),despite his party's campaign promise to do so.
Espersen noted that public support for Danish forces' service
in Afghanistan remains surprisingly strong and cuts across
the political spectrum. End summary.


2. (SBU) On October 20, Danish People's Party (DPP) MP and
foreign policy spokesman Soren Espersen met with Poloffs and
Pol Specialist and discussed a wide range of issues. The DPP
supports the Government (a coalition of the Liberals and
Conservatives) from the outside, providing a reliable and
indispensable bloc of 25 votes. Espersen said he shared the
widely-held view that PM Lars Loekke Rasmussen will reshuffle
the cabinet after COP-15, i.e. some time in early 2010, in
order to put his own stamp on the Government he inherited
without an election in April, when his predecessor Anders
Fogh Rasmussen became Secretary General of NATO. Unlike most
political observers here, Espersen believes FM Per Stig
Moeller (in office since 2001) is so tired he is ready to
step down from national politics, in favor of his fellow
Conservative, Climate and Energy Minister Connie Hedegaard.
This was just Espersen's private view, based on personal
observation; Moeller had complained of having had no summer
vacation at all. Espersen acknowledged that if rumors
concerning Hedegaard heading to Brussels as Denmark's new EU
Commissioner are true, Moeller might prefer to stay on.
(COMMENT: We pass along Espersen's remarks, but note that
Moeller himself has said Hedegaard would make a great EU
Commissioner; that prompted speculation that Moeller was keen
to stay on. END COMMENT.)


3. (SBU) Despite his strong support for PM Rasmussen's
programs, particularly strengthening of the country's
immigration standards -- a DPP core principle -- Espersen
assessed that the Prime Minister was not maintaining party
discipline as well as his predecessor, because he does not
like confrontation. That said, Espersen feels the Danish
electorate, even if they prefer other parties in next month's
local elections, will return the current Government to power
in the next national contest.


4. (SBU) Espersen predicted the Lisbon Treaty would soon
come into force, but insisted Denmark would maintain its
long-standing "opt-outs" in monetary, justice/home affairs
and defense policy (a fourth, on citizenship, has been
overtaken by events). He had been mystified by then-PM
Fogh's public promise to hold a referendum this parliamentary
term on the opt-outs, and did not believe Loekke would act on
it before the parliamentary election. The country did not
currently meet the criteria for joining the euro, and the
timing was wrong: a referendum should come shortly after
parliamentary elections, not before. No PM should call a
referendum without being sure of success. Espersen claimed
the Danish electorate would react emotionally against the
idea of allowing Brussels to control the country's
immigration and asylum laws.


5. (SBU) On Afghanistan, Espersen observed that Danish
public support remains strong and has actually increased over
the past year. He found this remarkable considering the high
casualty rate (27 fatalities).


6. (SBU) Espersen criticized the ruling coalition's
decision earlier this year to allow the Socialist People's
Party (SPP) to join the Five-Year Defense Agreement. He
predicted the SPP, which had never signed up to such an
agreement before, would use its seat at the table to cause
trouble on a wide range of defense issues, from the upcoming
fighter aircraft selection to the appointment of senior

defense officials. As evidence, Espersen noted that the SPP
joined the main opposition party SDP's call for Defense
Minister Soeren Gade's resignation (reftel).
FULTON