(C) NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR ON EU OPT-OUTS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L COPENHAGEN 000445

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/NB, EUR/RUS, EUR/ERA, EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV DA RU GG
SUBJECT: (C) NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR ON EU OPT-OUTS,
RUSSIA, GEORGIA/ABKHAZIA, DOMESTIC POLITICS

Classified By: (U) Ambassador Laurie S. Fulton; reason 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: National security advisor Thomas Ahrenkiel
told the Ambassador October 9 that the Government still wants
to end Denmark's opt-outs from EU common policies but the
time is not right for a referendum. He briefed on relations
with Russia, notably the Prime Minister's upcoming visit to
Moscow (Nov. 2). He alluded to the Foreign Minister's visit
to Abkhazia, which was coordinated with - and supported by -
the Georgian government. He also briefed on domestic
olitics in this the first week of the parliamentar session:
he expected a Cabinet reshuffle in th spring, but doubted
the PM would change the platorm inherited from his
predecessor. (Other topi reported septel.) END SUMMARY.

EU
--


2. (C) The Ambassador met with the Prime Minister's
national security advisor Thomas Ahrenkiel Octobe 9.
Ahrenkiel noted that EC President Barroso wasvisiting
Copenhagen that day for a conference in the build-up to
COP-15. The Prime Minister would discuss EU matters with
him, including: what can be done about Czech opposition to
the Lisbon Treaty; who should be the permanent president of
the European Council; who should replace Javier Solana; and
who should be Denmark's new Commissioner. Ahrenkiel also
mentioned that PM Rasmussen had discussed Spain's upcoming EU
Presidency with PM Zapatero during the latter's visit October
2 in support of Madrid's candidacy to host the 2016 Olympic
Games.


3. (C) With regard to Denmark's opt-outs from EU common
policies, Ahrenkiel said PM Lars Loekke Rasmussen retains his
predecessor's intention to eliminate them: they leave
Denmark without influence, and being outside the euro-zone
entails extra costs. Nonetheless, despite the party
platform's call for a referendum on ending the opt-outs this
parliamentary term, the PM does not intend to call a
referendum because the timing is wrong: Denmark does not
meet the criteria for joining the euro (its deficit for next
year is projected at 5 percent of GDP, over the 3 percent
ceiling),and it would be "absurd" to ask voters to approve
something that the Government could not implement. On the
other opt-outs (defense and justice/home affairs),the PM
will consult the major EU-supportive parties (not the Danish
People's Party) in Parliament, where he would need a broad
majority. It is known that there are differing views
regarding justice/home affairs. While there is less
disagreement about defense, the Government prefers to have
one referendum only, perhaps broken down into individual
choices on all opt-outs. Politically, the best time for a
referendum is shortly after a general election.

RUSSIA
--------------


4. (C) PM Rasmussen will visit Russia November 2 to meet
with PM Putin. His main focus will be on COP-15, where
Russia could be a spoiler: it has excess quotas worth
billions of dollars that it could dump on the world market
and wreck the entire quota system, and it wants them extended
after the Kyoto Protocol expires. Given that Russia's
emissions have declined around 30-40 percent since 1990, sale
of quotas would be "money for nothing." Meanwhile, President
Medvedev has set a target of improving energy efficiency by
40 percent. The EU member states have a "tacit agreement"
not to buy quotas.


5. (C) Other topics on PM Rasmussen's agenda in Russia: he
will push his hosts to be constructive on Afghanistan and
Iran, especially since U.S. missile defense policy changes
have been announced, and will address commercial relations
(Carlsberg has about half the beer market in Russia). The
pipeline should not be a problematic issue, as Denmark
expects to approve it October 19-20 (which would then begin a
public comment period).


6. (C) President Medvedev will make a state visit here in
April.

GEORGIA/ABKHAZIA
--------------


7. (C) Asked about Foreign Minister Per Stig Moeller's trip
to Abkhazia this week, Ahrenkiel said the FM is increasing

his travel in the Caucasus and Central Asia, to see if
Denmark can be of help. This is a "good effort." The
Georgian political system is "under great stress"; Denmark
has supported it. With Georgia's Membership Application
Process having receded, Denmark wants to increase practical
cooperation. (Note: The FM's trip to Abkhazia, from
Georgia, was coordinated with - and supported by - the
Georgian government. End note.)

DOMESTIC POLITICS
--------------


8. (C) The PM's speech opening the parliamentary session
October 6 has led to a "very boring" debate. (Note:
Supporters of the government praised it - Danish People's
Party leader Pia Kjaersgaard called it one of the best she
had heard) - while opponents criticized it for lacking
substantive solutions. End Note.) Ahrenkiel predicted that
Lars Loekke Rasmussen would probably reshuffle his Cabinet
"in the spring," but probably not revise the party platform
inherited from Anders Fogh Rasmussen until the next election.
Ahrenkiel commented that Lars Loekke had wanted to focus
more on domestic issues than his predecessor; he has found
that foreign policy consumes a surprising amount of his time,
more than anticipated, but he is enjoying it and realizes the
run-up to COP-15 is giving him an exceptional opportunity to
build relationships with world leaders.
FULTON