"HIGH NORTH" CONFERENCE DEBATES GREENLAND'S ROLE

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SUBJECT: "HIGH NORTH" CONFERENCE DEBATES GREENLAND'S ROLE
IN A CHANGING ARCTIC

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1. (SBU) Summary: The Danih Institute for Military Studies
sponsored a confrence on Arctic security September 23.
Denmark mintains sovereignty over Greenland, but granted it
increased autonomy as of June 2009. Participant vigorously
debated Greenland's changing role asthe Arctic attracts
increasing interest due to it untapped natural resources,
increasing use as sa lanes, and the impact a growing Arctic
economy could have on the proposed climate change agreement.
One Greenlandic panelist suggested that a climate change
agreement could be seen as a subtle form of colonialism which
could prevent Greenland from realizing its economic and
political potential. Another panelist, Danish Fleet Admiral
Niels Christian Vang, stated that Danish fleet assets may
well deploy further to the north as trade patterns shift,
particularly if Greenland's self-rule government is able to
use some of its expected new revenues to develop
search-and-rescue (SAR) and other maritime capabilities
around southern Greenland. A third speaker produced numerous
comments with his slightly tongue-in-cheek paper entitled,
"The 51st State? Greenland between Danish and American
Ambitions in the Arctic." End summary.

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(SBU) Independence desired....if it doesn't cost too much
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2. (SBU) The conference kicked into high gear with an
in-your-face presentation by Prof. Pia Vedel Ankersen,
University of Greenland, entitled "Greenlandic Politics:
Communitarian Counter Revolution," which posited that for
reasons of cultural identity and historical experience, the
majority of the population of Greenland strongly desires more
autonomy from Denmark than the June 2009 Self-Government
Agreement provides. The professor supported her contention
with a recent survey that purportedly showed 80 percent of
Greenlanders desire complete independence from their mother
country within 20 years. However, while 38 percent desired
sovereignty "as soon as possible," a surprising 58 percent
admitted that independence was not desirable if it meant a
reduced standard of living. At present, Denmark's 3.12
billion kroner (approx. $620 million) annual block grant
accounts for roughly 60 percent of Greenland's budget in an
economy totaling 10.6 billion kroner.


3. (SBU) Ankersen also contended that several independent
research findings have found a widening gulf between
generations in Greenland, with younger citizens much more
energized on the issue of increased autonomy. Ankersen
countered suggestions from the audience that perhaps younger
Greenlanders were simply engaging in idealistic exercises, by
noting that they show a sound understanding of the
significant economic challenges that Greenland must resolve
before further autonomy can be considered. The Greenlandic
academic created the strongest reaction by suggesting that
restrictions on Greenland's economic development as a result
of a new climate change agreement could be interpreted as a
subtle means to keep Greenland in its pre-developed state,
and therefore unable to achieve its eventual goal of
independence. As climate change in the Arctic opens up
access to Greenland's natural resources (inland mineral
deposits, greater hydroelectric power, and less costly
offshore oil/gas development),the potential for revenue for
the island's self-rule government increases. And this,
according to Ankersen, may accelerate Greenland's political
maturation timeline. The bottom line presented by Ankersen
was that while progress on autonomy must wait for development
sufficient to cut the island's dependency on Denmark -- and
it may be a long wait due to the very low current state of
economic activity -- real autonomy has become a core belief
of a new generation of Greenlanders and is unlikely to fade.

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(SBU) While Danish Navy focuses on current issues
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4. (SBU) Following this discussion, Denmark's Fleet Admiral
Niels Christian Vang discussed territorial security and the
protection of Greenland's increasingly valuable maritime
resources. Referring to the landmark 1933 decision by the
Permanent Court of International Justice that resolved
competing claims by Denmark and Norway, Admiral Vang reminded
his audience that not only did the decision bequeath

sovereignty of the island to Denmark, it also obligated his
country to patrol and protect Greenland's territorial waters
-- a responsibility that greatly expanded as the concept of
the 200 nautical-mile Economic Exclusion Zone was established
by the 1982 Third UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. He
added that larger and larger areas of high-north waters are
becoming navigable due to climate change, with a concomitant
increase of demands on Denmark's limited fleet assets.


5. (SBU) Admiral Vang stated that Denmark's recently
released Five Year Defense Agreement addresses this expanding
role, specifically that the Danish fleet intends to acquire
additional high-endurance, ice-capable patrol vessels, as
well as associated air assets, to increase its maritime
capability. Vang pointedly referred to the fact that
Greenland's still-rich fish stocks are now attracting the
attention of fishing fleets from areas of the world whose
traditional fishery grounds have become increasingly
depleted, particularly from East Asia. In addition to
fishery patrols, the Danish Navy will likely soon be asked to
provide greater services, such as search-and-rescue (SAR) and
iceberg reporting, to an increasing number of users of
high-north waters around Greenland -- from transiting
merchantmen to cruise ships, as well as the crews of oil and
natural gas platforms expected to be established in the
not-too-distant future. Vang and others have previously
fretted in the Danish and Greenlandic press that Denmark did
not have sufficient assets to accomplish all the missions,
particularly SAR in the event of a major civilian maritime
disaster. But at this conference, Vang expressed greater
assurance that Danish naval units could provide the necessary
coverage given Denmark's recent Five Year Defense Agreement.


6. (SBU) Although there are many variables in the calculus
to determine the correct mix of maritime assets required,
Vang contended that international cooperation, particularly
among the Arctic nations, is essential to meet expanding
needs in the most effective and cost-efficient manner. He
specifically noted the importance of the U.S. air base at
Thule as the single most important asset in the developing
scenario, and said it was essential to keep its capabilities
undiminished. He noted that it is farther from Reykjavik to
Greenland's north coast than from Norway to Gibraltar.


7. (SBU) One final issue the admiral addressed was the
maritime community's still-elementary knowledge of the
undersea topography of high-north waters, particularly around
Greenland, where a maritime mishap would not only heavily tax
existing SAR capabilities, but depending on the cargo, could
cause extensive environmental damage. He presumed the U.S.
and Russia possess this data, and thought it was time it be
shared on a broader basis. Finally, he noted that the North
Atlantic Coast Guard Forum (established three years ago; its
next regular meeting is in October) remains the only
coordination forum in which all five high north littoral
nations participate. Vang concluded by urging the assembly
that the principles of the 2008 Ilulissat Declaration
(negotiated settlement of disputes; acknowledgment of common
responsibilities; and cooperation on high-north issues) be
steadfastly respected, particularly by increasing close
cooperative engagement.

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(U) Possible Future Paths for Greenland
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8. (SBU) Nordic defense expert Professor Clive Archer of
Manchester University rounded out the conference with a
slightly sardonic thought game on where Greenland's self-rule
government may take the island in the coming years. His main
thesis was that a Greenland intent on expanding its autonomy
could proceed in one of three likely directions: 1) place
greater political distance between it and Denmark, but
maintain the strategic defense alliance; 2) seek a direct
strategic defense relationship with the U.S.; or 3) proceed
in a strictly neutral direction and rely on its presumed
extensive natural resources to fund its defensive
requirements. In brief, the academic argued that despite
genuine desire for complete independence on the part of an
increasing number of Greenlanders, option 1 would be the
likely course of action. Archer contended that option 2 was
needlessly provocative -- and he doubted whether the U.S.
would even be interested. And option 3 was simply too
difficult to achieve: the current exceedingly low state of
Greenland's economic base, even if oil and gas are soon found

in exploitable quantities, as well as its tiny population
(approx. 56,000),essentially makes this path a pipedream.


9. (SBU) However, even with this conclusion -- maintaining
the present relationship with Denmark -- Archer argued that
Denmark must get used to a new division of responsibilities
vis-a-vis Greenland. As Greenland's natural resources
approach the extraction phase, Denmark must be willing, and
should want, to cede some control over the protection of
Greenland's waters. To counter claims of quasi-colonialism,
no matter how unfounded, Denmark should enter into a more
even partnership with Greenland's self-rule government,
particularly in matters (e.g. maritime patrol/SAR) that the
Greenlanders themselves may one day have the revenue and
desire to provide.


10. (SBU) Strong reactions and pointed questions from the
conference participants, as well as a number of follow-up
conversations after the event, indicate that many consider
much of this talk about increased Greenland autonomy to be
quite a bit above glide slope. Several participants
emphasized that Greenland simply has too few people to
support a viable, independent state. That said, Greenlandic
long-term independence aspirations appear genuine.
FULTON