FIVE FMS PLEDGE COOPERATION TOWARD COP-15

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 COPENHAGEN 000397

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TAGS: KGHG PGOV EFIN PREL DA
SUBJECT: FIVE FMS PLEDGE COOPERATION TOWARD COP-15

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1. (SBU) Summary: The foreign ministers of Denmark, Sweden,
Finland, United Kingdom and France met in Copenhagen on September 10
to call urgently for reaching an ambitious climate agreement at the
COP-15 climate conference in December. Warning that the risks of
failure include potential "large-scale political upheaval, massive
food shortages, destabilizing population movements" and cuts to
access to water for millions, Danish FM Per Stig Moeller announced
the five ministers had committed to "deploy their diplomatic network
worldwide," "sparing no effort" to spread the message of urgency in
the run-up to COP-15. Though this British initiative was not a
meeting of heads of government, nor of climate ministers, it showed
a shared political will to press creatively for an ambitious
agreement in Copenhagen. On September 11, Danish PM Rasmussen met
with his Indian counterpart in New Delhi to advance those prospects.
The Danish Climate Ambassador gave the Embassy an update on
state-of-play. End Summary.


2. (U) The five foreign ministers, Per Stig Moeller (Denmark),
David Miliband (UK),Bernard Kouchner (France),Carl Bildt (Sweden),
Alexander Stubb (Finland) appeared together at an event hastily
organized by Copenhagen University and moderated by vice rector
Lykke Friis on September 10 to "debate the prospects of an ambitious
international agreement on climate change in December 2009 in
Copenhagen."


3. (U) FM Moeller's speech encapsulated the purpose of the event.
Highlights follow:

"...The world has to reach a global climate agreement in this city
in less than 100 days from now. The importance of getting an
ambitious agreement in December that does enough to help countries
mitigate and adapt to climate change cannot be overstated. If left
unchecked, climate change has the potential to cause large-scale
political upheaval, massive food shortages, destabilizing population
movements and cut vital access to water for millions people.

This is not just about cutting CO2 emissions or expanding renewable
energy. It is about foreign policy and about the security challenges
of the 21st century. Climate change will produce new international
challenges that will require new forms of co-operation in the area
of foreign policy.

To stand a fair chance of reaching this goal, the five foreign
ministers gathered here today, have agreed to deploy their
diplomatic network worldwide, around 800 embassies altogether, to
create the necessary political will to clinch a deal in December. In
the remaining time before the conference, we will spare no effort in
order to get this message across in the most persuasive way
possible.

With regard to Europe, the European Commission will today issue a
communication on stepping up international climate finance. I am
confident that the Commission will deliver a substantial input to
the important negotiations coming up in the European Union.

The European Union has been a global leader in the climate
negotiations. We remain committed to reducing our green house gas
emissions by 30 percent in 2020 from the level of 1990. But other
developed countries have to play ball as well and deliver comparable
reductions. We all agree here at the table to help ensure that the
European Union delivers on its commitment to take a decision on an
ambitious financial package at the European Council in October.

The key outstanding issues in the climate negotiations at this
moment are these.

Firstly, a common goal for reducing global CO2 emissions to plus two
degrees and no more, which the G8 already has agreed upon. This must
be accompanied by clear reduction targets for both the medium and
the long term.

Secondly, to provide developing countries with the necessary tools

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for them to adapt to climate change. The developing countries will
need to build more dams, sewage systems, roads and irrigation just
to name a few things. The agreement will therefore need to unlock
substantial new funds to this end."


4. (SBU) In their comments the other FMs also emphasized the
urgency of achieving such an agreement, and lamented the slow pace
of UN negotiations to date, which were "not on track" to reach an
ambitious accord in Copenhagen. During the question-and-answer
session that followed with an audience of students, academics
journalists and diplomats, they responded to criticism that EU
leaders have not shown much personal leadership on the issue. The
FMs were defensive on the latter point, explaining that the EU acts
through institutions, not personalities. FM Miliband added that
Europe was "boringly united" on the climate issue, detracting media
attention from European leadership on the issue. The ministers
claimed that Europe's emissions reduction pledges were "first on the
table," remain the most ambitious, and could be increased further if
other major emitters do the same. Finnish FM Stubb contrasted
President Obama's likeability with concrete EU action on climate. A
video recording of the full public session is available on
http://event.ku.dk/meettheministers

Climate Ambassador On Danish Strategy
--------------


5. (SBU) Denmark's Climate Change Ambassador Steffen Smidt told us
September 10 that the FMs' "show" in Copenhagen had been initiated
by FM Miliband (our counterparts at the British Embassy here
confirmed that). The visit here followed a "climate/energy tour"
that started in Paris on September 7, proceeded to Rotterdam to
visit a CCS project, then Warsaw and finally Copenhagen. According
to Smidt, the five agreed to do so to demonstrate "activism" at
their own level on the climate issue, to get their ministries to
coordinate and work together to promote progress in climate talks in
the run-up to COP-15, and also to stress the link between climate
and security.


6. (SBU) Smidt noted positive signs of "changes on the ground in
India and China" with regards to climate negotiations, and said that
PM Rasmussen's visit to New Delhi and Swedish PM Reinfeldt's visit
to South Africa were intended to help move those nations toward an
agreement. (Note: Initial Danish press reports from the Rasmussen
trip quoted the PM saying: "We have been promised that before COP15,
India will do more for the many different approaches to be
measurable, so they can fit in with an international agreement. But
it is also equally clear that India cannot be expected to reduce CO2
emissions in coming decades, when (currently) 400 million people
have no access to electricity. What matters is that the phase of
development that India must pass through should be as sustainable as
possible and that the country will learn from the mistakes the West
has done with the nvironment." End Note.)


7. (SBU) Smidt said Dnmark believed the Major Economies Forum
(MEF) to be a "useful supplementary instrument" for moving
negotiations forward. Smidt said EU leaders understand the need for
the Obama Administration to work with Congress before climate
legislation can be finalized, but are concerned about the effect of
the U.S. healthcare debate on climate legislation.


8. (SBU) The EU is "smarting" over its own bruising internal debate
over climate financing, Smidt said, noting the European Commission
had coincidentally issued a communication on the subject the same
day, having failed to achieve consensus in two previous attempts.
Asked how Denmark would react to the communication, Smidt said it
was too soon to say for certain, but he thought Denmark would
welcome it. He quoted FM Moeller's rhetorical flourish: "If not
now, then when? If not us, then who?" Smidt expected the G77 and
LDC states to criticize the EU finance proposal as offering too
little. Denmark's role in negotiations is complicated by its COP-15
presidency, he said. Denmark would be cautious about openly
supporting EU positions, but Denmark planned to play an active role

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as host, if necessary by circulating alternate texts to overcome
negotiation gridlock.

Comment
--------------


9. (SBU) This meeting involved neither heads of government nor
climate ministers. It was a political signal that a like-minded
group in Europe is concerned at the pace of progress but still
committed to pushing for the most ambitious possible agreement at
COP-15.

FULTON