AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH DANISH FOREIGN MINISTER - MIDDLE EAST PEACE AND AFGHANISTAN MUCH ON PER STIG'S MIND

C O N F I D E N T I A L COPENHAGEN 000365


E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2019
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, DA
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH DANISH FOREIGN MINISTER
- MIDDLE EAST PEACE AND AFGHANISTAN MUCH ON PER STIG'S MIND

Classified By: Ambassador Laurie S. Fulton, Embassy Copenhagen,
Reasons: 1.4 (B) and (D)

1. (C) In a cordial introductory meeting with the Ambassador
on August 25, Danish Foreign Minister Per Stig Moeller
underlined his interest in supporting U.S. leadership on the
Middle East peace process, emphasized his believe that Syria
represented the key to moving forward, and expressed a tough
line on Iran. On the latter, he linked isolating Iran (and
stepping up sanctions if required) with opportunities for
peace between Israelis and Palestinians. On Afghanistan, the
Danish FM praised the administration's approach, which he
termed consonant with Denmark's emphasis on success on the
battlefield combined with deploying resources for
reconstruction and development. He worried that U.S. public
support for the war could turn, while maintaining that
favorable numbers for continued engagement in Afghanistan in
Danish opinion polls were largely due to the government's
explicit effort to seek consensus on foreign policy with the
parliamentary opposition. The challenge for the United
States and Denmark (and the EU),the FM opined, was an
election outcome that was not considered fair and transparent
and -- if Karzai wins as expected -- continued support for a
government that is weakened by allegations of corruption and
that pursues objectionable policies toward Afghan women. End
Summary.

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When is the U.S. Announcing its ME Policy?
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2. (C) The Ambassador met on August 25 with Danish Foreign
Minister Per Stig Moeller for an introductory call. The
Danish FM was gracious and welcoming, but jumped quickly into
an area of long-standing interest, asking bluntly, "when is
the President going to announce his new Middle East Policy?"
Moeller said that he had been one of the original architects
of the Middle East Roadmap, and noted that his impression was
that the process had hit a wall. Moeller added that "Syria
is the key," and claimed that Assad is ready for a separate
peace with Israel, and was prepared to launch indirect talks
"right away." In Moeller's view, drawing Syria into the
process would at once "solve" the Lebanon problem, neutralize
Hamas and isolate Iran. In response to the Ambassador's
comment that Special Envoy Mitchell was meeting with key
parties to the conflict, Moeller said that he was anxious for
a readout. He added that he was prepared to travel to Syria
in early November for discussions with Assad, but "only if
Denmark can be helpful." "Everyone," he concluded, "is
waiting for the Americans."

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Iran - Leveraging Arab Concerns
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3. (C) On Iran, Moeller expressed strong support for a
tougher sanctions regime if the Iranian leadership continued
to stonewall on its nuclear program. Iran is negotiating in
one room, he said, while building a bomb in the next room.
Moeller noted that the Gulf Arabs and Saudi Arabia are scared
of Iran, and urged the U.S. and its allies to use this fear
to draw them into concrete support for a lasting peace
between Israel and the Palestinians ("they are more afraid of
Iran than of Israel"). Dismissing the recent Iranian
presidential election, the Danish FM said that while "there
is not a single pro-western Iranian politician, the Persians
want respect from the outside world," and many Iranians see
Ahmedinejad as an embarrassment and Supreme Leader Khameni as
unqualified.

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Afghanistan - Stay the Course but Karzai is a Problem
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4. (C) The Ambassador told the Foreign Minister that the
United States was deeply grateful for Denmark's engagement in
Afghanistan. In return, FM Moeller praised the U.S.
administration's Afghanistan policy, particularly the
President's decision to increase U.S. troop levels. He added
that Denmark shared the U.S. view that battlefield success
must be combined with reconstruction and development,
particularly outside of the capital. Moeller worried that
U.S. public support for the Afghan war could turn, recalling
the American experience in Vietnam. In response to a comment
by the Ambassador about Danish public opinion and the war,
Moeller said that Danes continued to support Denmark's
engagement in Afghanistan, and this was thanks to the
government's explicit and regular effort to forge a
consensual policy with responsible opposition leaders. "If
we are to have clout" internationally, he said, we must
consult regularly with the opposition to ensure a common
approach to foreign policy.

5. (C) On the Afghan elections, the FM said the U.S. and its
allies faced a critical and impossible situation. If there
is a second round, Moeller worried that the Taliban would
carry out serious attacks to disrupt the voting; if there is
no second round, "everyone will say it's a cheat."
Expressing skepticism about the reported poll numbers for
Karzai, Moeller said that it was not credible for Karzai to
win 68 percent of the vote in north, where Abdullah is
strong. The Ambassador noted that while Abdallah had
complained of Karzai supporters stuffing ballot boxes, he had
left himself some room to negotiate with the Afghan leader on
a future role in the government. Moeller agreed, and said he
had been encouraged by news reports that Karzai planned to
name Abdullah as his special representative for talks with
the Taliban and with Pakistan.

6. (C) The dilemma for the United States and its allies in
Afghanistan, Moeller argued, was a Karzai government weakened
by corruption and intent on pursuing objectionable policies
toward women. Denmark (and the EU writ large) recognized the
need to remain engaged in Afghanistan, and Danes understood
that success "out there" helped to defend Denmark at home.
Having said that, Moeller underscored that Karzai's support
for Shari'a law that sanctioned rape and violence against
women placed Denmark in an impossible situation, and that
this issue loomed larger than allegations of corruption.

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A Greenlandic Coda
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7. (C) The Ambassador briefed the Foreign Minister on her
recent trip to Nuuk (septel),the capital of Greenland, and
Moeller urged her to visit the far north, adding that he had
invited both former Secretary Rice and Secretary Clinton to
come to Illulissat. Ambassador told Moeller that Greenlandic
Premier Kuupik Kleist had raised renewed concerns about
residual radiation from the crash of a U.S. B-52 in 1968.
Kleist, she said, hoped to bring closure to the issue.
Ambassador told the FM that she had replied to Kleist that he
should pursue this through the Danish government and the
Permanent Committee. Moeller took note, but said that two
MPs representing Greenland in the Danish Folketing continued
to raise this old issue, but that other parties "didn't
care." Dismissing the Greenlander's concerns, Moeller said
that Denmark's Health Ministry would soon be releasing a
study of radiation on Greenland's inland ice, and that while
"we found more radiation than we expected, the levels were
not harmful."

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Comment:
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8. (C) Moeller has a reputation as direct and demanding, but
he was courteous and generous with his time in an
introductory session that exceeded an hour. He clearly sees
a role for Denmark (and himself) in efforts to bring peace to
the Middle East, and stands at the ready to be helpful with
the Syrians. On Iran and Afghanistan, the Danish FM's
comments underlined that Denmark remains one of our most
steadfast allies in the region.


FULTON