Change of Danish PM: Implications for COP-15

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SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SENV KGHG PINR DA
SUBJECT: Change of Danish PM: Implications for COP-15

Ref: A) Copenhagen 168
B) 08 Copenhagen 601

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1. (SBU) Summary: The recent change of Danish Prime Minister is
unlikely to significantly shift the Danish approach to hosting
UNFCCC climate talks at COP-15 in December in Copenhagen. Climate
policy here enjoys strong political consensus, and the government of
Lars Lokke Rasmussen will likely continue to pursue an ambitious
climate agreement at COP-15 in its own political interest. However,
the departure of Anders Fogh Rasmussen for NATO may diminish
Denmark's international stature in the short term, and could change
the internal dynamics of its climate change team in the run-up to
COP-15. The effects could include boosting Climate and Energy
Minister Connie Hedegaard's control over Denmark's negotiating
strategy, and could motivate Lars Lokke to seek opportunities to
boost his international credentials in advance of COP-15 by
attending climate meetings involving heads of government. To
safeguard U.S. interests, we should engage fully with Hedegaard and
consider opportunities to help Denmark prepare for its role as
COP-15 host. End Summary.

COP-15 Still a Prize
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2. (SBU) Presiding over success at COP-15 remains a compelling
political prize in host nation Denmark. The recent change of Prime
Minister here does not signify a change of government; the same
political coalition continues in power and is not required (or
likely) to seek to renew its popular mandate before COP-15 (see Ref
A).


3. (SBU) Strong political consensus already exists here in favor of
a more comprehensive global approach to reducing greenhouse gas
emissions globally. The previous government was initially skeptical
of global warming and only last year rebranded itself as "green,"
with Fogh Rasmussen touting his government's leadership in favor of
an ambitious agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol when it expires
in 2012. The opposition has been critical of Fogh Rasmussen for
endangering the outcome at COP-15 by decamping for NATO, and has
characterized Lokke Rasmussen's green credentials as suspect. In
retort, prior to assuming the prime ministership, Lars Lokke
publicly insisted he would be "no less ambitious" than Anders Fogh
at COP-15.

Effects of Change on Climate
--------------


4. (SBU) Government, media and industry sources here worry the
change in Danish leadership could slow momentum in international
climate negotiations, since Lokke Rasmussen lacks the international
stature of his predecessor. Some further speculate it will permit
activist Climate and Energy Minister Connie Hedegaard to consolidate
her influence over government policy regarding international climate
negotiations. Her ministry, specially created for her after the
elections of 2007, works closely on COP-15 issues with an
interagency committee headed by the Prime Minister (Ref B). With
early pressure on the new PM to prove his leadership on domestic
economic issues, observers expect him to leave the details of
protracted climate negotiations to Hedegaard, who has emerged as an
active and popular minister. Some speculate here that if COP-15 is
deemed a political success, Hedegaard could be rewarded with the
Foreign Ministry.


5. (SBU) We have noted recent signs of tension between Hedegaard
(who hails from the Conservative Party, the junior partner in the
governing coalition) and the PM's Office (both Rasmussens represent
the Liberal Party) over who should attend the upcoming Major
Economies Forum preparatory meeting in Washington. Staff close to
Hedegaard told us she would be the logical choice, but Anders Fogh
chose instead to send his climate advisor, Bo Lidegaard. It seems
likely Lars Lokke will stick with Lidegaard, but Hedegaard may add
her own people to the delegation.

Building Credibility
--------------


6. (SBU) The new PM shares with his predecessor (and Hedegaard) a
keen political interest in Denmark presiding over a successful
COP-15 event resulting in agreement on a post-Kyoto regime to deal
with climate change. It seems likely that Lars Lokke, who has
little foreign policy experience, will seek opportunities to boost

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his credentials by appearing at selected events on the world stage.
Most prominent among those events, in our view, would be
climate-focused gatherings of heads of government including the
G8-Major Economies Forum (MEF) in La Maddalena in July, and at UN
climate events in New York in September. These events combine high
exposure with short duration.

Comment
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7. (SBU) While Danish climate policy is unlikely to shift
significantly, the change in Denmark's leadership could still
adversely affect U.S. interests if the new PM proves an ineffective
COP-15 host. In the run-up to COP-15 we can safeguard interests by
working closely with Hedegaard and her team, and help Lars Lokke
Rasmussen prepare for his host role by inviting him to share the
stage at climate meetings involving key heads of government.

McCulley