Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09COPENHAGEN168
2009-04-06 12:28:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Copenhagen
Cable title:  

DENMARK'S NEW PRIME MINISTER

Tags:  PGOV PREL NATO EU DA 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHCP #0168/01 0961228
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 061228Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4891
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L COPENHAGEN 000168 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL NATO EU DA
SUBJECT: DENMARK'S NEW PRIME MINISTER

Classified By: CDA, a.i. Terence McCulley, reasons 1.4b,d

C O N F I D E N T I A L COPENHAGEN 000168

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL NATO EU DA
SUBJECT: DENMARK'S NEW PRIME MINISTER

Classified By: CDA, a.i. Terence McCulley, reasons 1.4b,d


1. (C) Summary: A scant 72 hours after formally declaring his
candidacy for NATO Secretary General, Danish Prime Minister
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, his new post in hand, stepped down as
prime minister April 5 in favor of his hand-picked successor,
44-year-old Finance Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen. Lars
Lokke immediately assumed office and now confronts a
deepening recession, unfavorable comparisons with his
imposing predecessor and a resurgent -- if still relatively
powerless -- opposition. With elections not mandated until
late 2011, these next months and years will be rebuilding
ones for Lars Lokke and his government, marked by efforts to
freshen, but essentially sustain current approaches,
especially in foreign policy. A brief biographic summary for
the new prime minister is at paragraph 10. End summary.

PM Transition: That Was Fast
--------------


2. (SBU) Although Anders Fogh Rasmussen's interest in the
NATO position had been widely known (albeit unconfirmed) for
months, the prime minister's appointment to the post and his
subsequent resignation came suddenly over the weekend of
April 4-5. Wasting little time after his selection at the
close of the Strasbourg Summit, Anders Fogh returned to
Copenhagen, and, in the following day, said goodbye to his
staff, consulted his coalition partners, submitted his
resignation and presented his successor to the Danish queen
for appointment. By Sunday afternoon, Denmark had abruptly
but seemlessly transitioned from one prime minister named
Rasmussen to another.


3. (SBU) Denmark's political system allows for such transfers
of power without new elections or parliamentary action,
provided that there is no parliamentary majority opposing the
new prime minister. With a thin but reliable majority
backing the Liberal-Conservative coalition government,
supported by the Danish Peoples' Party and the Liberal
Alliance, Lars Lokke can expect to serve out the remainder of
the current government's term. The government can call new
elections at any time, but they must take place no later than
November 2011.


4. (SBU) In brief remarks after his appointment, the new

prime minister emphasized broad continuity in policy,
declared himself humbled, and pledged to "work very hard."
On foreign policy, Lars Lokke said he views Anders Fogh's
appointment as NATO Secretary General as a measure of the
success of his policies, which he will maintain. His team
has signaled that Lars Lokke will move quickly to name his
own replacement as finance minister and to fill the welfare
minister position vacated last week, but a more ambitious
cabinet reshuffle will not happen until later in the year.

Hard Road Ahead for Lars Lokke
--------------


5. (C) Lars Lokke Rasmussen has ample reason to stress his
humility and industry to the Danish public. Anders Fogh
Rasmussen, who won three national elections and dominated
Danish political life for the past eight years, would be a
hard act to follow in any case. The challenges facing the
new prime minister are especially great, however, handicapped
as he is by an evident lack of gravitas and taking over as
the Danish economy sinks more deeply into recession. His
public standing battered over the past year by allegations of
public expense account abuse (especially unfortunate in a
society renowned for its lack of public corruption),Lars
Lokke is widely viewed as an intelligent, capable official
but -- according to all surveys -- not the Danish public's
first or even second choice to lead the country.


6. (C) Moreover, as outgoing finance minister, Lars Lokke is
personally identified with the current economic crisis and
stands to suffer particularly badly if the situation in
Denmark worsens, as most experts forecast. Although the
Danish economy has so far gotten off lightly compared to
others, unemployment is predicted to more than double by next
year. When that happens, Lars Lokke may be called to account
for the Danish government's modest response -- a small
stimulus and some tax reform -- and find himself unable to
shift responsibility to anyone else.


7. (C) Recent opinion surveys indicate that the Danish public
has anticipated the change in leadership, and the verdict is
not positive for the government. Even before Anders Fogh's
departure, the center-left parties have vaulted in the polls
to a solid combined parliamentary majority, reflecting
concern about the economy, fatigue after eight years in
office for the current government, and greater coordination
among the potential center-left coalition partners. Having
come close in November 2007, the opposition is delighted with
Anders Fogh's departure and now views victory in the next
elections as all but inevitable. Fortunately for the new
prime minister, though, the timing of the next elections
rests with the government and not with poll results, however
unfavorable.


8. (C) Liberal Party leaders tell us privately that they
recognize Lars Lokke's shortcomings, but expect that his
stature will naturally rise once in office and that Danes
will quickly embrace him as a leader. One cautioned against
making too much of the contrast in style between Anders Fogh
and Lars Lokke, arguing that the down-to-earth, gregarious
Lars Lokke is more in keeping with Danish political tradition
than the reserved Anders Fogh. It also helps Lars Lokke to
mark some change from his predecessors (hence the expectation
of a major cabinet reshuffle),at a time when voters are
apparently ready for change.

Partnership with U.S. Intact
--------------


9. (C) Continuity may not be exciting or help advance the
government's efforts to revitalize itself politically, but
here United States interests are most definitely served. Lars
Lokke Rasmussen lacks significant foreign policy experience
and can be expected to hew closely to what has, in his words,
worked well so far. All indications are that the government
will sustain its key policies of active engagement in concert
with us and European allies, including in priority missions
such as in Afghanistan and in Kosovo. Changes in the foreign
and defense portfolios are not expected in the short term,
and we anticipate that the new prime minister will rely
heavily on those steady hands.

Biographic Summary
--------------


10. (SBU) Biographic summary: Lars Lokke Rasmussen has
served as Danish cabinet minister twice (Minister of Finance
2007-present, Minister of Interior and Health 2001-2007),
vice-chairman of the Liberal Party (since 1998) and as a
local mayor (1998-2000). Born May 15, 1964 in Vejle
(Jutland),Rasmussen holds a master's degree in law from the
University of Copenhagen. PM Anders Fogh Rasmussen's loyal
number two within the party and a close ally in government,
Lars Lokke is viewed as a sharp political strategist in his
own right, albeit less formal and more outgoing than his
patron. He is married to Solrun Lokke Jakupsdottir
(Rasmussen),who hails from Denmark's Faroes Islands. Lars
Lokke is a former International Visitor Program grantee
(1989) and speaks fluent English.
MCCULLEY