Climate Conferences Build Toward COP-15

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 COPENHAGEN 000139

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV KGHG DA
SUBJECT: Climate Conferences Build Toward COP-15

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This is an action request for OES/EGC--see para 15.


1. (SBU) Summary: Denmark has recently been host to a flurry of
climate-related conferences in the run-up to the UNFCCC's Conference
of Parties (COP-15) meeting in December. One of them, sponsored by
the International Association of Research Universities and held here
in Copenhagen, attracted international media attention, focused on
scientific research updating trends (generally for the worse) since
the issuance of the last IPCC report in 2007. The Danish Prime
Minister pledged to convey the gravity of new scientific data to his
international counterparts.


2. (SBU) The World Business Summit on Climate Change May 24-26 will
be the next major gathering in Copenhagen. Organizers, and Danish
Climate and Energy Minister Connie Hedegaard, wish Special Envoy
Todd Stern to participate. Doing so would advance U.S. climate
goals in advance of COP-15. End Summary.

Background
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3. (U) Several climate events recently took place in Denmark. The
first, hosted by Aarhus University March 5-7, was entitled "Beyond
Kyoto--Addressing the Challenges of Climate Change." That was
quickly followed by a larger International Scientific Congress on
International Association of Research Universities International
Scientific Congress on "Climate Change, Global Risks, Challenges and
Decisions" (www.climatecongress.ku.dk) held in Copenhagen from 10-12
March. The IARU group includes the University of Copenhagen, Yale,
and UC Berkeley, among others. More than 2,000 scientists attended,
and their findings garnered major international media attention.
Both these conferences were partially sponsored by the Danish
Government. A third conference in Copenhagen, sponsored by the
Norwegian firm PointCarbon, took place March 17-19 and focused on
the European carbon market. The next major conference here will be
the World Business Summit on Climate Change, May 24-26.

Scientists Spotlight Worsening Trends
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4. (U) The IARU Congress was designed to highlight climate change
scientific results achieved since the IPCC published its last
report, in 2007. That report's findings were not in question, but
featured data that needed updating, according to organizer Prof.
Katherine Richardson of the University of Copenhagen. To emphasize
that the IPCC report remained valid (if outdated),IPCC Chair
Pachauri was a featured speaker at the Congress. Preliminary
conclusions from the Congress appear below, and will be published in
a synthesis report to be published in June this year. The synthesis
report will be disseminated in National Geographic, Time, and
Scientific American, as well as with electronic media.


5. (SBU) Dr. Richardson summed up the lessons of the IARU Congress
in the final session, and presented them symbolically to Danish
Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen to inform COP-15 deliberations.
These included:

--Climatic Trends: Recent observations confirm that, given high
rates of observed emissions, the worst-case IPCC scenario
trajectories (or even worse) are being realized.

--Social disruption: Recent observations show that societies are
highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change, with poor
nations and communities particularly at risk. Temperature rises
above two degrees Celsius will be very difficult for contemporary
societies to cope with, and will increase the level of climate
disruption through the rest of the century.

--Long-Term Strategy: Rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation
based on coordinated global and regional action is required to avoid
dangerous climate change regardless of how it is defined. Weaker
targets for 2020 increase the risk of crossing tipping points and
make the task of meeting 2050 targets more difficult. Delay in
initiating effective mitigation actions increases significantly the
long-term social and economic costs of both adaptation and
mitigation.

--Equity: Climate change is having, and will have, strongly
differential effects on people within and between countries and
regions, on this generation and future generations, and on human
societies and the natural world. An effective, well-funded

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adaptation safety net is required for those people least capable of
coping with climate change impacts, and a common but differentiated
mitigation strategy is needed to protect the poor and most
vulnerable.

--Inaction is Inexcusable: There is no excuse for inaction. We
already have many tools and approaches (economic, technological,
behavioral, management) to deal effectively with the climate change
challenge. But they must be vigorously and widely implemented to
achieve the societal transformation required to de-carbonize
economies.

--Meeting the Challenge: To achieve the societal transformation
required to meet the climate change challenge, we must overcome a
number of significant constraints and seize critical opportunities.


PM Message Gets Message
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6. (U) Upon receiving these conclusions, Prime Minister Rasmussen
said "It's imperative that we reach agreement in December. We have
to lay out some long-term goals and the rich have to help the poor.
Green growth is the future and if we fail, we fall." Rasmussen
thanked conference participants and committed to transmit the
scientific consensus achieved in the Congress, saying science should
be the basis of good policymaking. Success at COP-15 would require
intense negotiations at the highest levels, he said, including three
'stepping stones:"
--The G8 meeting in La Maddalena in July
--The High Level UN Event in NY in September
--Sep-Dec intensive UNFCCC negotiations


7. (U) Rasmussen encouraged heads of government to attend COP-15
"to close the deal" which should include:
--Targets (50% overall by 2050, including 80% for developed
countries, and shorter term targets for 2020);
--Funding (focused on developing countries, for tech transfer,
forestry/land use and adaptation); and,
--Verification (to measure/report/verify mitigation, finance and
technology transfer).


8. (U) COP-15 would only be the beginning, PM Rasmussen concluded,
setting a framework to share technology and promote deployment,
which should be adjusted to focus on opportunities thereafter.
Denmark's ambition is to become completely free of fossil fuels in
the future, he concluded.

UNFCCC's De Boer Defends Clean Development Mechanism
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9. (U) The opening session of the March 17-19 PointCarbon
conference featured UNFCCC chief Yvo de Boer, who listed four issues
that must be resolved prior to agreement at COP-15:
--Ambitious midterm and long-term targets for developed countries.
(He called Obama Administration goals for 2020 and 2050 "a first
good offer.");
--Clarity on nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing
countries (these could come in a variety of forms, including
sectoral goals, individual projects, efficiency goals, or national
emissions goals);
--Financial and technical support for mitigation and adaptation,
going beyond voluntary contributions to more sustainable mechanisms;
and,
--A governance structure based on equity.


10. (SBU) De Boer criticized EU finance ministers as "unhelpfully"
going beyond the Bali roadmap in calling on developing countries to
formulate comprehensive national strategies to reduce emissions.
The compromises in the roadmap were hard-won, he argued, the
resulting agreement was fragile but must be respected. He hoped the
EU Council would return to the original Bali formulation of 15-30%
reductions from "business as usual" in the developing countries.
He claimed that "if we add up what China/India/Brazil are already
doing to prevent climate change, it already exceeds what Europe is
doing" and urged that COP-15 NOT be portrayed as an attempt to
"bribe the reluctant."

EC Favors Sectoral Approach over CDM
--------------


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11. (SBU) EC deputy Environment DG Jos Delbeke, appearing on the
same panel with de Boer, Delbeke said a recent EU troika visit to
Japan and the U.S. provided an opportunity to share the EC financing
proposal. Delbeke said the tone from the Obama Administration is
positive, but the EC awaits more details. He hoped that a
newly-revitalized US-EU high level dialogue on climate change could
focus on issues like comparability of targets among developed
countries, and the EC's proposed sectoral mechanism for developing
countries.


12. (SBU) Delbeke called for project-based Clean Development
Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol to be replaced with a "sectoral
carbon market crediting system" for developing countries focused on
the power sector and other sectors exposed to international
competition (e.g. steel making, cement). The sectoral approach
should provide a more comprehensive price signal, great
environmental ambition level, lower transaction costs, and more
ambitious benchmarks than the existing CDM.

World Business Summit Next Big Event
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13. (SBU) The Copenhagen Climate Council, a Danish partnership of
government/media/business, in cooperation with the UN Global
Compact, the World Economic Forum, the World Business Council for
Sustainable Development and others will host a World Business Summit
on Climate Change May 24-26 in Copenhagen. Confirmed speakers
include UN Syg Ban ki-Moon, former VP Gore, EC President Barroso,
UNFCCC head de Boer, and Danish Climate Minister Hedegaard.
Organizers have invited S/E Stern to speak at the plenary session on
the opening day of the conference on the subject of "Getting to
Copenhagen" (invitation letter conveyed by email to OES on March
13). For her part, Minister Hedegaard has invited S/E Stern to
participate in a "Corporate Ministerial Roundtable" on "corporate
contributions to a new global deal" on May 26.

Comment
--------------


14. (SBU) Though the USG was not officially represented at these
recent conferences, President Obama was often praised for his
commitment to address climate change. S/E Stern's March 3 climate
policy address was explicitly praised by Dr. Richardson at the IARU
Congress. PM Rasmussen raised the issue of midterm targets gently,
without referring specifically to the U.S., by implying that simply
setting ambitious 2050 goals was "not enough." NGO contacts here
are more direct, warning privately they will begin highlighting the
lack of a credible U.S. midterm emissions reduction target. The
World Business Summit event offers an excellent opportunity for a
USG climate policymaker to build on the positive reception of U.S.
climate policies here, while enlisting international business
support for an ambitious climate agreement at COP-15. We recommend
that S/E Stern take advantage of this opportunity by accepting these
invitations, if possible.

Action Request
--------------


15. For OES/EGC: Please advise if S/E Stern will accept
invitations to participate at the World Business Summit May 24-26.

McCulley