DANISH VIEWS ON WAY FORWARD FOR GEORGIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L COPENHAGEN 000011

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/06/2019
TAGS: PREL KDEM MARR ECON GG RS DA
SUBJECT: DANISH VIEWS ON WAY FORWARD FOR GEORGIA

REF: STATE 134559

Classified By: Pol/Econ Counselor Bill Mozdzierz, reasons 1.4b,d


1. (C) Denmark welcomes and largely shares our reftel
strategy for Georgia and its separatist regions, Danish MFA
Director for Russia and Eastern Europe Ruben Madsen and his
team assured us January 6. Madsen observed that this is a
good time to exchange views on the long-term approach,
reporting that the French had demarched in support of
Georgian territorial integrity in the final days of its EU
presidency and that the European Commission is expected to
propose soon new visa policy guidelines for Georgia.


2. (C) Russia must pay a price for its actions in Georgia,
Madsen maintained, arguing that the Georgians miscalculated
badly but that Moscow committed a grave and "stupid" error in
recognizing the breakaway regions -- a mistake Madsen
compared to Turkish recognition of northern Cyprus. Even
many Russians have begun to appreciate this, Madsen and his
team suggested. The challenge ahead of us, they argued, is
to ensure that the separatist regions recognize that their
best future lies not with Moscow, but with Georgia and the
West.


3. (C) The Danes faulted the Georgian government with too
little flexibility in the application of new legislation on
the occupied territories, which they said continue to hamper
Western humanitarian relief efforts. Madsen suggested that
we should take care to engage the many constructive and
pragmatic officials not directly within President
Saakashvili's inner circle, which Madsen characterized as
sometimes overly hawkish and rigid.


4. (C) Madsen and his team emphasized that our approach
should differentiate between Abkhazia and South Ossetia,
which are varied in their relationship to Russia and their
prospects for eventual reconciliation with Tbilisi. Madsen
noted that Danish Foreign Minister Per Stig Moller has taken
a particular interest in Abkhazia following his visit there
last year and his meeting with de-facto leader Bagapsh. The
Abkhazians remain dangerously ignorant of Europe and the
West, Madsen maintained (he recalled that Bagapsh had
suggested that the best thing the West could do would be to
"leave us alone"),but FM Moller believes that this argues
for greater, not less, engagement from us.


5. (C) Skeptical of sanctions, the Danes indicated that they
would nevertheless be prepared to support targeted visa
restrictions, if only for symbolic reasons. Madsen said that
the immediate focus should be on maintaining an international
presence in Georgia, suggesting that the Russians may not be
clear themselves about what is acceptable to them, and so we
may still have room to maneuver. Madsen said the EU will
need to make decisions on extending the EU mission in
February.


6. (C) Taking the long view, Madsen and his team argued that
we will prevail by making Georgia proper so attractive that
the Abkhazians and South Ossetians over time recognize that
reconciliation and reintegration are the best way forward.
This will require sustained support from us, flexibility from
Tbilisi, and years of confidence-building measures,
people-to-people exchanges and commercial development to
achieve, they concluded. For their part, the Danes indicated
that they are prepared to join us in these efforts and will
work to ensure close coordination between the EU and the
United States.
CAIN