CONAKRY SECURITY SUMMARY - SEPTEMBER 21, 2009

S E C R E T CONAKRY 000581

SIPDIS

FOR DS/IP/AF

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2029
TAGS: ASEC KDEM PGOV PREL PMIL GV
SUBJECT: CONAKRY SECURITY SUMMARY - SEPTEMBER 21, 2009

REF: A. CONAKRY 545

B. CONAKRY 551

C. CONAKRY 552

D. CONAKRY 556

E. CONAKRY 557

F. CONAKRY 574

G. CONAKRY 577

Classified By: RSO Philip W. Nazelrod for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (S) The security situation in Guinea remains calm. The
last two weeks witnessed a visit of two Heads of State, the
threat of a counter-coup and mass protests, and the
conclusion of Ramadan. The following serves as a summary of
significant security-related events from September 4 - 20,

2009.

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An Announcement To Come...?
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2. (C) CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara (Dadis) privately
announced his candidacy for Guinea,s presidency during a
meeting with the International Contact Group for Guinea
(ICG-G). To date, Dadis has not officially announced his
candidacy to the general population although several media
outlets have reported his intentions. Despite the lack of an
official announcement, many Guineans are making plans to
respond. (Reftel G)

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Simmering
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3. (C) On September 12, 2009, Senegalese President Wade and
Liberian President Sirleaf-Johnson met with Dadis in Conakry.
The results of the meeting are unclear although Dadis
treated Wade and Sirleaf-Johnson to organized demonstrations
stacked with supporters calling for Dadis to run for
President. Of note, President Wade,s statement to Guineans
irked the youth community causing key contacts to feel
betrayed. (Reftel E).


4. (C) Leaders of youth groups opposed to Dadis, rule met
with Embassy contacts and confided their concerns about (1)
the security situation in Guinea and (2) fears of death
squads, believed to be training near Conakry on orders of
CNDD leadership. (Reftel B)


5. (U) September 13, 2009 saw the arrival of Cellou Dalein
Diallo, the leader of the UFDG political party of which the
majority of supporters are Peuhl/Fulani. Greeted by
thousands of supporters, Diallo is a former Prime Minister
under the Conte regime.(Reftel D).


6. (C) Various youth groups have voiced their intentions to
demonstrate against the CNDD after Ramadan. Further, media
outlets such as Aminata published on September 20 the
possibility of demonstrations in Conakry on September 28 or
31 in opposition to Dadis, possible candidacy.

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A Bridge Too Far?
--------------


7. (S) Post held an EAC meeting on September 11, 2009 to
discuss the security situation as it relates to a
communicated counter-coup movement. While the movement
appeared robust in its plans and material, no known attempts
have been made to disrupt the CNDD government. Further,
sources claim that Dadis has increased his night time
movements in and around Conakry. (Reftel C and Septel).

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Kidnapping & Convocation
--------------


8. (U) Suspected black-market currency exchanger Habib Bah
was reportedly kidnapped by men in uniform, outside a
mosque in the Dixin suburb of Conakry. Found later in
Kindia, Bah claimed he was held for three days and only
released after paying a ransom of $100,000 USD.


9. (U) Oil company giant, Total SA, is one of only two fuel
distributors in Guinea. The General Manager in Guinea,
Benoit Gaborit, was convoked to Camp Alpha Yaya ostensibly to
answer questions about Total SA,s relationship with the
Conte regime. On September 16, military officers raided
Total,s offices in an effort to locate Gaborit. The
officers were met with resistance by Total,s local employees
who, in a show of support, closed all Total gas stations in
Conakry. On September 17, the gas stations were re-opened
and Dadis announced that only convocations issued by the
police and gendarmes are valid. (NOTE: Dadis, announcement
implies the convocation issued by the military officers above
was invalid and unenforceable. However, such convocations
were pervasive in the early months of 2009 as military
officers under Minister Claude Pivi administered a parallel
and illegal court which largely targeted international
companies operating in Guinea. END NOTE).

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Caddell
--------------


10. (SBU) The former Caddell construction company workers
(who helped construct the NEC) continue their push for monies
from Caddell Construction company. Their claims, being
voiced to Caddell,s attorney in Guinea, include the demand
for $9M USD for unpaid wages. One individual, claiming to be
a former Caddell employee, was arrested by gendarmes after
one gendarme witnessed him conducting surveillance on Mission
vehicles. The Chief of Staff of the Gendarmerie, Major
Balde, stated such acts by the workers are an embarrassment
and illegal. Balde ordered the workers to meet with him on
September 21 or 22 to end the claims once and for all. If
the workers refuse or are discovered near the chancery, they
will be arrested for breech of peace. (Reftel F)


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Comment
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11. (SBU) Now that Ramadan has officially concluded, the
stage has been set for the demonstrations promised by such
groups as Les Forces Vives and the Movement Dadis Must Leave
(MDDQ). Youth groups continue to align both politically and
ethnically while the Police (and Gendarmes) increase their
presence at key intersections and neighborhood rallying
points.


12. (S) Post remains alert in response to the threatened
counter-coup and continues to operate with already heightened
security measures in place.
BROKENSHIRE