Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09CONAKRY183
2009-03-26 12:07:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Conakry
Cable title:
CNDD LEADER IS A "SIMPLE SOLDIER IN WAY OVER HIS
how-toVZCZCXRO0522 PP RUEHPA DE RUEHRY #0183/01 0851207 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 261207Z MAR 09 FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3564 INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000183
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PMIL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: CNDD LEADER IS A "SIMPLE SOLDIER IN WAY OVER HIS
HEAD"
REF: CONAKRY 0169
Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000183
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PMIL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: CNDD LEADER IS A "SIMPLE SOLDIER IN WAY OVER HIS
HEAD"
REF: CONAKRY 0169
Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D
1. (C) SUMMARY. Following his private meeting with CNDD
President Moussa Dadis Camara and 2nd Vice President Sekouba
Konate, opposition leader Sidya Toure described an
inseparable leadership duo caught in the middle of a
political and economic mess from which they have no idea how
to extricate themselves. Dadis is reportedly deeply worried
about the lack of discipline within the military, but
hesitant to try and address the problem for fear of sparking
a mutiny or a counter-coup. On the economic front, Dadis is
apparently expecting a $100 million "gift" from China to keep
the national budget afloat. However, he has been quiet on
elections even after receiving the proposed transition
timeline from Les Forces Vives. Sidya also commented on his
own developing relationship with the CNDD leadership and an
ideological fracture within Les Forces Vives. END SUMMARY.
--------------
THE DADIS AND KONATE TEAM
--------------
2. (C) Pol/Econ Chief met with former Prime Minister and
opposition political leader (UFR) Sidya Toure on March 25.
Sidya had spent more than an hour with CNDD President Moussa
Dadis Camara and the 2nd Vice President, Sekouba Konate, in a
private meeting at Camp Alpha Yaya on March 20. Sidya said
that the two leaders are inseparable and that Dadis relies
heavily on Konate's judgment and advice. He described Dadis
as more of a dreamer while Konate is someone who keeps both
feet on solid ground. According to Sidya, Konate has a much
better grasp of the practical realities facing the CNDD.
"Dadis is more theoretical...he talks about patriotism and
morality, but he doesn't really understand the challenges
ahead," Sidya commented.
3. (C) Later in the discussion, Sidya said that he thought
that both Dadis and Konate were just beginning to feel the
"weight of power." He was convinced that neither leader is
interested in remaining in power, but that they seem to have
gotten themselves into a mess that they do not know how to
get out of. According to Sidya, the people around the
president, particularly the civilian ministers, are a big
part of the problem. "They keep giving bad advice, basically
reinforcing the weaknesses of the last regime...and they have
no interest in handing power over to a new group."
--------------
WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE MILITARY
--------------
4. (C) Aside from Dadis' crusade against corruption and
narcotics, which Sidya believed Dadis sees as a personal
moral responsibility to his country, Dadis is preoccupied
with the question of military reform. "The army is his
biggest problem and he doesn't know what to do about it,"
Sidya said. Citing the almost complete lack of military
discipline and chaotic disorder at Camp Alpha Yaya, Sidya
said that handing power over to civilians before the
government has established firm control over the military
would only escalate the country's political instability. At
the same time, Sidya commented that Dadis' own position is
too precarious for him to try and institute any reforms since
doing so could spark an immediate revolt or counter-coup.
"It's not just about elections and handing power back...we
have to be sure that we can hold onto that power."
--------------
GIFTS FROM CHINA
--------------
5. (C) Sidya was also concerned about the country's
deteriorating economic situation, which is characterized by a
deepening recession, diminishing government revenues, and
endemic poverty. When Pol/Econ Chief asked if Dadis and
Konate had a plan to address these issues, Sidya laughed
uncomfortably. "Sure...the Chinese have promised them $100
million so they plan to use that to stay afloat." Sidya
attributed this strategy to one of the president's civilian
ministers. He said it was not at all clear what the Chinese
expect to gain in return, although mining concessions would
probably figure in, but "they certainly aren't going to hand
us $100 million just because they like us." Sidya added that
certain ministers are also lobbying Libya for cash donations.
--------------
CONAKRY 00000183 002 OF 003
NOTHING NEW ON ELECTIONS
--------------
6. (C) On the question of elections, Sidya confirmed that
Les Force Vives had formally passed their transition proposal
to Dadis last week (reftel). However, when asked whether
Dadis would accept the proposal, Sidya said he did not know
as Les Forces Vives had not received a response.
--------------
NEED TO GET ECOWAS ON OUR SIDE
--------------
7. (C) During the course of his discussion with Dadis, Sidya
said he advised him that his number one priority should be to
reach out to the international community and repair
relationships. He specifically told Dadis that he needed to
define his transition plan and then get ECOWAS board. "I
told him that if he can get ECOWAS on our side, everyone else
will have no choice but to follow." However, Sidya commented
that one of Dadis' problems is that he doesn't have a clear
vision of how he plans to proceed. "I keep telling him that
it is critical that he articulate a strategic vision," Sidya
said.
--------------
A ROLE FOR SIDYA IN THE JUNTA
--------------
8. (C) According to Sidya, Dadis welcomed his advice and
even offered to give him an official government position.
Sidya declined, reportedly telling Dadis that as the leader
of an opposition political party, it would be inappropriate
for him to serve in Dadis' government. Nevertheless, Dadis
apparently asked him to provide occasional advice, which
Sidya said he would be willing to do.
9. (C) Pol/Econ Chief remarked on the fact that Dadis had
recently named Sidya to a new mining commission established
to review the country's mining contracts (septel). Sidya
said the appointment reflects Dadis' confidence in his
judgment, but that the commission's role and responsibilities
are not yet clear.
--------------
THE FRACTURE WITHIN LES FORCES VIVES
--------------
10. (C) In response to a question about unity within Les
Forces Vives, Sidya readily admitted that the loose
association of political and civil leaders is deeply divided.
"We're fractured into two groups...I'm on one side and Alpha
Conde (RPG) is on the other." According to Sidya, this
divide is primarily ideological and related not to a
difference of opinion over the course of the transition, but
rather, over two diverse forces competing for eventual
control of the country. He noted that union leader Dr.
Ibrahima Fofana has sided with Alpha Conde while rival union
leader Sera Rabiatou Diallo has sided with Sidya.
11. (C) Before ending the meeting, Pol/Econ Chief asked
Sidya why the controversial millionaire turned political
party leader, Mamadou Syllah, was able to nab a seat at the
bargaining table as a member of Les Forces Vives. Shrugging
his shoulders, Sidya said "you'll have to ask the others
because frankly, I don't understand it...I've been asking
myself the same question."
--------------
COMMENT
--------------
12. (C) It appears as if Dadis may have changed his tune
when it comes to Sidya Toure since Sidya's name figured
prominently on the CNDD's list of economic predators, and
Dadis publicly identified Sidya as one of the corrupt former
government officials responsible for Guinea's current
economic and political crisis. Dadis is now apparently
seeking Sidya's advice and naming him to one of his
commissions. A CNDD insider recently commented that Sidya
has been lobbying to be prime minister, and that Dadis is
looking on the possibility favorably (septel). However,
Sidya's comments to Pol/Econ Chief suggest that he is trying
to walk a delicate line, balancing between distancing himself
from the junta while trying to influence its leaders.
13. (C) While not necessarily pro-Dadis or pro-CNDD,
especially since Sidya's ultimate goal is to become
president, he seemed to sympathize with Dadis. According to
CONAKRY 00000183 003 OF 003
Sidya, Dadis is simply an inexperienced young military
captain who has bitten off way more than he can chew. He
seemed to think that Dadis is probably sincere in his
intentions, committed to lofty if perhaps unattainable
ideals, but woefully unaware of the practical realities and
challenges of running a country. Continued international
pressure for elections, a weakening economy, a loaded
transition agenda, and an out of control military are
converging issues that are proving difficult to reconcile.
END COMMENT.
RASPOLIC
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PMIL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: CNDD LEADER IS A "SIMPLE SOLDIER IN WAY OVER HIS
HEAD"
REF: CONAKRY 0169
Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D
1. (C) SUMMARY. Following his private meeting with CNDD
President Moussa Dadis Camara and 2nd Vice President Sekouba
Konate, opposition leader Sidya Toure described an
inseparable leadership duo caught in the middle of a
political and economic mess from which they have no idea how
to extricate themselves. Dadis is reportedly deeply worried
about the lack of discipline within the military, but
hesitant to try and address the problem for fear of sparking
a mutiny or a counter-coup. On the economic front, Dadis is
apparently expecting a $100 million "gift" from China to keep
the national budget afloat. However, he has been quiet on
elections even after receiving the proposed transition
timeline from Les Forces Vives. Sidya also commented on his
own developing relationship with the CNDD leadership and an
ideological fracture within Les Forces Vives. END SUMMARY.
--------------
THE DADIS AND KONATE TEAM
--------------
2. (C) Pol/Econ Chief met with former Prime Minister and
opposition political leader (UFR) Sidya Toure on March 25.
Sidya had spent more than an hour with CNDD President Moussa
Dadis Camara and the 2nd Vice President, Sekouba Konate, in a
private meeting at Camp Alpha Yaya on March 20. Sidya said
that the two leaders are inseparable and that Dadis relies
heavily on Konate's judgment and advice. He described Dadis
as more of a dreamer while Konate is someone who keeps both
feet on solid ground. According to Sidya, Konate has a much
better grasp of the practical realities facing the CNDD.
"Dadis is more theoretical...he talks about patriotism and
morality, but he doesn't really understand the challenges
ahead," Sidya commented.
3. (C) Later in the discussion, Sidya said that he thought
that both Dadis and Konate were just beginning to feel the
"weight of power." He was convinced that neither leader is
interested in remaining in power, but that they seem to have
gotten themselves into a mess that they do not know how to
get out of. According to Sidya, the people around the
president, particularly the civilian ministers, are a big
part of the problem. "They keep giving bad advice, basically
reinforcing the weaknesses of the last regime...and they have
no interest in handing power over to a new group."
--------------
WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE MILITARY
--------------
4. (C) Aside from Dadis' crusade against corruption and
narcotics, which Sidya believed Dadis sees as a personal
moral responsibility to his country, Dadis is preoccupied
with the question of military reform. "The army is his
biggest problem and he doesn't know what to do about it,"
Sidya said. Citing the almost complete lack of military
discipline and chaotic disorder at Camp Alpha Yaya, Sidya
said that handing power over to civilians before the
government has established firm control over the military
would only escalate the country's political instability. At
the same time, Sidya commented that Dadis' own position is
too precarious for him to try and institute any reforms since
doing so could spark an immediate revolt or counter-coup.
"It's not just about elections and handing power back...we
have to be sure that we can hold onto that power."
--------------
GIFTS FROM CHINA
--------------
5. (C) Sidya was also concerned about the country's
deteriorating economic situation, which is characterized by a
deepening recession, diminishing government revenues, and
endemic poverty. When Pol/Econ Chief asked if Dadis and
Konate had a plan to address these issues, Sidya laughed
uncomfortably. "Sure...the Chinese have promised them $100
million so they plan to use that to stay afloat." Sidya
attributed this strategy to one of the president's civilian
ministers. He said it was not at all clear what the Chinese
expect to gain in return, although mining concessions would
probably figure in, but "they certainly aren't going to hand
us $100 million just because they like us." Sidya added that
certain ministers are also lobbying Libya for cash donations.
--------------
CONAKRY 00000183 002 OF 003
NOTHING NEW ON ELECTIONS
--------------
6. (C) On the question of elections, Sidya confirmed that
Les Force Vives had formally passed their transition proposal
to Dadis last week (reftel). However, when asked whether
Dadis would accept the proposal, Sidya said he did not know
as Les Forces Vives had not received a response.
--------------
NEED TO GET ECOWAS ON OUR SIDE
--------------
7. (C) During the course of his discussion with Dadis, Sidya
said he advised him that his number one priority should be to
reach out to the international community and repair
relationships. He specifically told Dadis that he needed to
define his transition plan and then get ECOWAS board. "I
told him that if he can get ECOWAS on our side, everyone else
will have no choice but to follow." However, Sidya commented
that one of Dadis' problems is that he doesn't have a clear
vision of how he plans to proceed. "I keep telling him that
it is critical that he articulate a strategic vision," Sidya
said.
--------------
A ROLE FOR SIDYA IN THE JUNTA
--------------
8. (C) According to Sidya, Dadis welcomed his advice and
even offered to give him an official government position.
Sidya declined, reportedly telling Dadis that as the leader
of an opposition political party, it would be inappropriate
for him to serve in Dadis' government. Nevertheless, Dadis
apparently asked him to provide occasional advice, which
Sidya said he would be willing to do.
9. (C) Pol/Econ Chief remarked on the fact that Dadis had
recently named Sidya to a new mining commission established
to review the country's mining contracts (septel). Sidya
said the appointment reflects Dadis' confidence in his
judgment, but that the commission's role and responsibilities
are not yet clear.
--------------
THE FRACTURE WITHIN LES FORCES VIVES
--------------
10. (C) In response to a question about unity within Les
Forces Vives, Sidya readily admitted that the loose
association of political and civil leaders is deeply divided.
"We're fractured into two groups...I'm on one side and Alpha
Conde (RPG) is on the other." According to Sidya, this
divide is primarily ideological and related not to a
difference of opinion over the course of the transition, but
rather, over two diverse forces competing for eventual
control of the country. He noted that union leader Dr.
Ibrahima Fofana has sided with Alpha Conde while rival union
leader Sera Rabiatou Diallo has sided with Sidya.
11. (C) Before ending the meeting, Pol/Econ Chief asked
Sidya why the controversial millionaire turned political
party leader, Mamadou Syllah, was able to nab a seat at the
bargaining table as a member of Les Forces Vives. Shrugging
his shoulders, Sidya said "you'll have to ask the others
because frankly, I don't understand it...I've been asking
myself the same question."
--------------
COMMENT
--------------
12. (C) It appears as if Dadis may have changed his tune
when it comes to Sidya Toure since Sidya's name figured
prominently on the CNDD's list of economic predators, and
Dadis publicly identified Sidya as one of the corrupt former
government officials responsible for Guinea's current
economic and political crisis. Dadis is now apparently
seeking Sidya's advice and naming him to one of his
commissions. A CNDD insider recently commented that Sidya
has been lobbying to be prime minister, and that Dadis is
looking on the possibility favorably (septel). However,
Sidya's comments to Pol/Econ Chief suggest that he is trying
to walk a delicate line, balancing between distancing himself
from the junta while trying to influence its leaders.
13. (C) While not necessarily pro-Dadis or pro-CNDD,
especially since Sidya's ultimate goal is to become
president, he seemed to sympathize with Dadis. According to
CONAKRY 00000183 003 OF 003
Sidya, Dadis is simply an inexperienced young military
captain who has bitten off way more than he can chew. He
seemed to think that Dadis is probably sincere in his
intentions, committed to lofty if perhaps unattainable
ideals, but woefully unaware of the practical realities and
challenges of running a country. Continued international
pressure for elections, a weakening economy, a loaded
transition agenda, and an out of control military are
converging issues that are proving difficult to reconcile.
END COMMENT.
RASPOLIC