Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09CONAKRY169
2009-03-18 16:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Conakry
Cable title:  

LES FORCES VIVES FINALIZE TRANSITION PROPOSAL

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV 
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VZCZCXRO3017
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0169/01 0771631
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 181631Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3547
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000169 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: LES FORCES VIVES FINALIZE TRANSITION PROPOSAL

Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000169

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: LES FORCES VIVES FINALIZE TRANSITION PROPOSAL

Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY. Les Forces Vives are close to finalizing a
concrete election proposal, which they plan to present to the
CNDD soon. The latest proposal specifies dates for
legislative and presidential elections in 2009, and calls for
the immediate establishment of a transitional council (CNT)
tasked with constitutional reform. Although likely
technically feasible, the proposal may be unrealistic given
the political situation. The International Contact Group
provided extensive feedback, including several criticisms of
Les Forces Vives' lack of assertiveness in dealing with the
CNDD. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) At the end of a marathon set of meetings around the
International Contact Group (ICG) visit (to be reported
septel),Les Forces Vives presented a concrete proposal for
Guinea's political transition to local ICG members on March
17, which they ultimately plan to present to the CNDD. Les
Forces Vives were represented by their spokesperson,
opposition political leader Jean-Marie Dore (UPG). Other
representatives included Sidya Toure (UFR),Alpha Conde
(RPG),Sekou Konate (PUP),Oury Bah (UFDG),Mamadou Syllah
(UPG),union leader Dr. Ibrahima Fofana (USTG),and civil
society leader Hadja Saran Daraba (CNOSG). The diplomatic
corps included the Ambassadors of France, Spain, Germany,
Mali, Nigeria, the US Charge and the Burkinabe Chief of Staff
to the Foreign Minister as well as the country
representatives for the UN and the EU. Ambassador Edward
Aina, the ECOWAS representative in Guinea, co-chaired the
meeting with Mamadou Ouattara of the African Union.

--------------
THE TRANSITION TIMELINE
--------------


3. (SBU) Les Forces Vives emphasized the importance of
establishing a National Council for Transition (CNT),which
would be tasked with reforming the constitution. They
proposed the following transition timeline:
- March 2009 - Creation of the CNT
- March/April 2009 - Completion of electoral registration
- May/June 2009 - Verification and publication of electoral
list
- July/August 2009 - Distribution of electoral cards
- September 2009 - adoption of the revised constitution via

presidential decree
- 11 October 2009 - Legislative elections
- 13 December 2009 - First round for presidential elections
- 27 December 2009 - Second round for presidential elections


4. (SBU) Earlier in the ICG meetings, Les Forces Vives had
discussed the possibility of demanding that the transitional
government conduct a thorough investigation into the human
rights abuses allegedly committed by security forces in 2006
and 2007. By the March 17 meeting, they had agreed to
postpone this objective, leaving it as a priority for the
newly elected government.

--------------
ADVICE AND COMMENTS FROM THE DIP CORPS
--------------


5. (SBU) During the discussion that followed, the Malian
Ambassador commented that there seemed to be too many
governing organs to effectively manage a transition. "The
CNDD's played a historic role by peacefully seizing
power...now they should hand the business of transition over
to a transition council," he said. The Ambassador also
questioned how the proposed CNT would work with the CNDD, and
that if both organs were going to be in place, that the
responsibilities of each should be carefully delineated.
Jean-Marie Dore responded that these are details that Les
Forces Vives will work out once the CNDD accepts the proposal.


6. (SBU) There were a number of questions about the
constitutional revision process. Les Forces Vives had
initially planned to hold a constitutional referendum, but
then decided that it would be more efficient for the new
constitution to be adopted through a presidential decree, a
development that much of the assembled diplomatic community
seemed to welcome. However, Charge Raspolic was concerned
that the entire timeline hinges on the CNDD's acceptance of
the proposed constitution, especially since the CNT would not
finalize the constitution until September while the first
elections would take place a few weeks later. Members of the
diplomatic corps advised Les Forces Vives to consider
completing the constitutional revisions as early as possible
so as to allow plenty of time for any back and forth with the
CNDD.


CONAKRY 00000169 002 OF 002



7. (SBU) At one point, the French Ambassador said "if I have
any advice for you, it would be that you need to be
pragmatic." He agreed with the Malian Ambassador in
principle that the CNDD should logically disappear, but that
the CNDD is unlikely to accept its own dissolution before
elections are held. "They are going to be there so you need
to figure out how to work with them," he said.


8. (SBU) The Nigerian Ambassador, who is rather soft-spoken,
diplomatically complimented the group on its efforts and
unity, but then guilelessly admonished Les Forces Vives for
their accommodating attitude towards the CNDD. "I am afraid
that you are underestimating the situation...you are dealing
with people who have seized power...if you want it back, you
have to take it...with all due respect, I have now seen you
address the CNDD on two separate occasions...you need to be
more forceful," she said.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) Les Forces Vives are clearly making progress towards
a specific proposal although there are still some details to
be worked out. However, while there are now concrete dates
to propose, the timeline may be unrealistic. Technically
speaking, it is probably doable, but there are a number of
inherent opportunities for delay. Les Forces Vives seems to
be somewhat naive when it comes to dealing with the CNDD.
When one Ambassador commented that the CNDD president might
not immediately accept a new constitution, Jean-Marie Dore
said "I don't see why he would not." Similarly, Les Forces
Vives seems to be accommodating of and deferential to the
CNDD when assertiveness may be what is ultimately needed to
effectively pressure the CNDD to move in the right direction.



10. (C) There was also evidence of discord and disagreement
among the assembled members of Les Forces Vives. The two
civil society representatives sat at the back of the room,
and when they began talking about the need for donor support
for a "national concertation," political party
representatives began mumbling amongst themselves, ultimately
making hand signals to tell the others to stop speaking.
Alpha Conde was generally disruptive and at one point, rudely
reprimanded Jean Marie Dore for whispering to the German
Ambassador when he should have been listening to a question.
Mamadou Syllah, always an imposing figure, made himself
comfortable at the table, but did not sit next to any of the
other political party leaders. His presence could not be
missed since he frequently got up from the table or
intermittently interjected comments and jokes in his booming
voice. Given that there are now 62 official political
parties, it is interesting to note that Mamadou Syllah, head
of what seems to be a minor political party, has found
himself a place at the negotiating table with the five major
political parties. END COMMENT.
RASPOLIC