CNDD OUTLINES VAGUE ELECTION TIMELINE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000114

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM SOCI ASEC GV
SUBJECT: CNDD OUTLINES VAGUE ELECTION TIMELINE

REF: CONAKRY 0096


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Recent meetings between the National
Council for Democracy and Development (CNDD) and the Forces
Vives, a group of civil and political actors, have focused on
identifying an election date and defining a transition
timeline. The Forces Vives recently sent a letter to the
President of the CNDD, Moussa Dadis Camara, pressing for
clarification of the transition process, but received no
reply. Thereafter, during a nationally broadcast meeting
with members of the international community and Guinean civil
society, Dadis outlined a potential timeline for holding
elections, but did not include specific dates. The reaction
from civil society seems positive, albeit tentative. END
SUMMARY.

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CIVIL SOCIETY ASKS FOR CLARIFICATION
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2. (SBU) Following a disappointing meeting with Dadis Camara
(reftel),representatives from political parties, civil
society, labor unions, religious leaders and
youth--collectively known as the Forces Vives--met on
February 10 in order to determine an appropriate course of
action. Frustrated by Dadis' ambiguity in regards to a
transition timeline, the group sent Dadis a letter asking
that he clarify in writing his vision for the transition.
The letter was reportedly received, although the Forces Vives
received no reply.

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CNDD ASKS FOR "NO TROUBLE" FROM POLITICAL PARTIES
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3. (SBU) On February 14, representatives from the CNDD,
without Dadis present, met with the Forces Vives to prepare
for the arrival of the International Contact Group on Guinea
(ICG-G). CNDD representatives emphasized the importance of
presenting a collaborative and harmonious image to the ICG-G.
According to LES sources, when the Forces Vives continued to
press for a repeal of the suspension of political activity,
the CNDD demanded assurance that there would be "no trouble"
from the political parties if it was lifted.

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DADIS LAYS OUT A TIMELINE FOR ELECTIONS
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4. (U) On February 16 at the People's Palace, the CNDD met
with the ICG-G and the Forces Vives to discuss the transition
process. (NOTE. The US delegate to the ICG-G is reporting
on the group's response in septel. END NOTE). During the
meeting, Dadis Camara proposed a timeline of essential
activities that would lead to elections, but this timeline
did not identify specific dates. Dadis also indicated that
the Forces Vives will have a significant role in both the
approval of the timeline and the implementation of many of
the actions. Among the key measures included in the timeline
were:

-- Establishing a National Transition Council, composed of
members of the CNDD and members of the Force Vives, to manage
the transition.

-- Resuming the voter registration process.

-- Lifting the suspension of labor union and political party
activities.

-- Establishing a structure to monitor the Transition Road
Map with the Contact Group.

-- Establishing a Commission on Truth, Justice, and
Reconciliation to investigate crimes committed during the
June 2006 and January 2007 events.

-- Revising and adopting a new constitution.

-- Publishing a decree to call for elections.

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DADIS CLAIMS HE WILL NOT RUN FOR ELECTION
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5. (U) During his speech, Dadis assured the ICG-G that

CONAKRY 00000114 002.2 OF 002


neither he nor the Prime Minister would run in the
presidential elections. He also noted that any member of the
government who wished to run would be asked to step down.
Dadis included in his statement a denunciation of corruption,
drug-trafficking, and patronage, while reiterating a plea for
international support for the electoral process.

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REACTIONS FROM CIVIL SOCIETY
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6. (SBU) According to LES sources, the members of the Forces
Vives, though hoping for specific dates to be included in the
timetable, demonstrated support for the proposed timeline.
Presidents of several political parties--the Union of
Republican Forces (UFR),the Union for Progress and Renewal
(UPR),the Union for Guinean Progress (UPG),and the Guinean
People's Assembly (RPG)--expressed their approval for a
National Transition Council that would serve as a platform to
debate political, social, and economic issues facing Guinea.
Ousmane Bah, President of UPR, noted in his speech that the
meeting was the first time an opposition party had been
allowed to speak at such a gathering. Representatives from
the labor unions, the National Council for Civil Society
Organizations (CNOSC),youth groups, and religious leaders
all pledged support to the CNDD and affirmed their commitment
to the transition process.

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COMMENT
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7. (SBU) Some members of civil society seem hopeful that
Dadis is increasingly taking their recommendations into
account. However, the CNDD'S continued reluctance to
establish a definite timetable casts doubt on Dadis'
commitment to move rapidly towards elections. Further, it is
unclear who would be responsible for the implementation of
many of the proposed measures.

RASPOLIC