ECOWAS AND UN MEETINGS ON GUINEA'S POLITICAL

UNCLAS CONAKRY 000011

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

C O R R E C T E D COPY MRN 000011 VICE 000834

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: ECOWAS AND UN MEETINGS ON GUINEA'S POLITICAL
TRANSITION

1.(SBU) SUMMARY. Charge attended two meetings over the weekend,
one with a visiting ECOWAS delegation, and one with the UN
regional representative out of Dakar. Diplomats highlighted
key concerns, which included questions as to how the new
Guinean Government will be structured, who will ultimately
hold power, and what role the CNDD (Council for Democracy and
Development) will play. Although Western diplomats continued
to push for a six month timeline for elections, most ECOWAS
nations and the United Nations seemed willing to work toward
a twelve month timeline. Press reports indicate that the
French Minister of Cooperation brokered a deal with the CNDD
to hold elections within twelve months, but the CNDD has not
officially acknowledged this decision. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Charge attended two separate meetings with Guinea's
international partners over the weekend to discuss concerns
over the December 23 coup. The first was with the visiting
ECOWAS delegation, led by ECOWAS Executive Secretary Dr.
Mohamed Chambas and General (and former president of Nigeria)
Ibrahim Babangida. Attendees included Ambassadors and
Charges from Spain, Ghana, Senegal, Liberia, Mali, and the
United Kingdom. The second meeting was with the UN's
regional representative, Said Djinnit, who is based in Dakar.
Spain, the EU, the UNDP, Germany and the United Kingdom
participated in the second meeting.

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ECOWAS LOOKING TO BUILD DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS
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3. (SBU) General Babangida told the assembled diplomats that
ECOWAS' intent is to help "facilitate the building of
democratic institutions" in Guinea. A Burkinabe member of
the delegation added that securing peace in the sub-region is
also a priority. Explaining the delegation's immediate
objective, Chambas said that ECOWAS is focused on working
toward a peaceful and timely transfer of power to a civilian
government, and asked the diplomatic corps to help provide
solutions. Babangida noted that ECOWAS has experience
working with Guineans, pointing out that the ECOWAS
delegation helped broker the tripartite agreement that ended
the labor strikes and subsequent civil unrest in 2007. He
added that ECOWAS intended to congratulate the CNDD (Council
for Democracy and Development) for its success in keeping the
military "calm" through the transition period. (COMMENT.
Babangida led the ECOWAS delegation in 2007 and was perceived
to have been highly instrumental in getting President Conte
to accede to civilian demands. END COMMENT).


4. (SBU) The international community highlighted a number of
shared concerns. Questions as to how the new government will
be structured, what role the CNDD will play, and who
ultimately will hold power were at the top of the list. The
Spanish Ambassador said that the new government's priorities
remain unclear while others commented that the CNDD sometimes
appears to be contradicting itself.


5. (SBU) On the issue of elections, opinions were divided.
The Liberian Ambassador agreed with Charge Raspolic, saying
that elections should be held within the next six months. He
followed that statement with a question as to whether the
assembled countries intended to formally recognize the new
government if it announces an elections date, but the
diplomats were noncommittal. The Senegalese Charge mentioned
that Senegalese President Wade had cancelled a planned visit
to Guinea because the CNDD had failed to announce an election
date. The Malian Ambassador, who is new to Guinea, said that
it would be impossible to hold elections in six months.
According to him, a twelve month timeframe was more
realistic, noting that "it is important to do it right." A
lawyer by trade, he added that a national conference to
address constitutional and electoral reform issues would be
useful. The Ghanaian Ambassador commented that he was
concerned about "forcing Guinean to hold elections too soon."


6. (SBU) The ECOWAS delegation is scheduled to leave Conakry
on January 5, and is expected to convene another meeting with
the diplomatic corps before departing.

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UNITED NATIONS LOOKING AT 12 MONTHS FOR ELECTION TIMELINE
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7. (SBU) The UN representative, Said Djinnit, said that he
was not surprised by the coup. However, he noted that
divisions within the military appear to continue. Djinnit
said that opposition political parties may see Conte's death
and the subsequent coup as an opportunity to capitalize on

the population's fear to win control of the government,
although his meaning was not clear and he did not clarify.
He said that the UN is looking for Guinea to hold elections
within twelve months.


8. (SBU) The participating Ambassadors and Charges
highlighted concerns similar to those raised in the ECOWAS
meeting, including questions of power structure, security,
and continued political divisions at the top. With respect
to elections, the United Kingdom and the European Union,
along with Charge Raspolic, said that they continue to call
for elections within six months. Pointing out that the EU
has already invested 30 million Euros in Guinea's electoral
process, the EU representative said that voter registration
is now "50% complete." He added that the EU has no
preference as to whether or not the presidential election is
held concurrently with the legislative election. The EU
raised the point that the Supreme Court is the body legally
mandated to resolve electoral disputes, but since the CNDD
dissolved the Supreme Court, it is unclear what body would
have final authority over the electoral process.

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COMMENT
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9. (SBU) Both meetings were called at the last minute so the
diplomatic representation was not as widespread as it might
have been had representatives been notified earlier. Western
diplomats continue to hold to a six month timeline for
elections, but there is a growing sense that such a timeline
may be unrealistic. As noted by several diplomats during the
meetings, some civilian contacts are pushing to reform the
constitution before moving to elections. There are also
concerns over the voter registration process, despite the EU
assertion that 50% of voters have already been registered.
Most ECOWAS nations and the UN seem to be willing to work
toward a twelve month timeline. The immediate concern for
most appears to be defining the Guinean Government's new
power structure and reinforcing a civilian transition leading
to elections.


10. (U) The French Minister of Cooperation also visited
Conakry over the weekend. International and local press
alike reported that the French delegation was satisfied with
its discussions with the CNDD. The Minister was quoted as
saying that France not currently planning to cut any
"humanitarian or cooperation assistance." The BBC announced
that the French had brokered a deal with the new government
to hold elections within twelve months, but the CNDD has not
confirmed this decision. END COMMENT.
RASPOLIC