UNION LEADER SAYS CONSITUTION FIRST, THEN ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L CONAKRY 000001

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D COPY MRN 000001 VICE 000822

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/02/2019
TAGS: ELAB PGOV PREL SOCI ASEC GV
SUBJECT: UNION LEADER SAYS CONSITUTION FIRST, THEN ELECTIONS

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY. Now that the long anticipated coup has
taken place, union leader Rabiatou is looking to create an
effective civilian coalition that can check the military
junta's power until elections can be organized. However,
Rabiatou appears to be in no hurry to get to elections,
arguing that the first priority should be to rewrite the
Guinean constitution. She acknowledged international
condemnations of the coup, but pleaded for strong
international leadership in the months ahead in order to help
Guinea emerge from its political and social crisis, and to
"avoid the mistakes of the past." Although Rabiatou talked
about civil unity, this is a goal that has proven elusive in
the past due to political infighting, personal ambitions,
corruption, and manipulations based on ethnic ties. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) Poloff met with Rabiatou Serah Diallo, co-chair of
the Unions Intersyndicale, an umbrella coalition of Guinea's
labor unions, on December 31. Shortly after the December 23
coup, the unions publicly accepted the installation of the
Council for Democracy and Development (CNDD) and expressed
their willingness to work with the new government in order to
organize elections and a peaceful transition to civilian
rule. One of the CNDD's first acts was to ban all political
and union activity, a decree that has not yet been officially
lifted. In past meetings with Poloff, Rabiatou has
repeatedly advocated in favor of a coup d'etat as the
country's only available mechanism for effecting a peaceful
political transition.

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COUP WAS EXPECTED AND NECESSARY
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3. (C) Rabiatou asserted that the coup was exactly what the
Guinean population had been expecting. "If the military had
not immediately stepped in to take power, we would have had
an ethnic conflict," she said. Rabiatou told Poloff that the
international condemnations were also expected, but that she
hopes that bilateral partners will be flexible in terms of
their policies as the new government moves forward. "The
Guinean case is special and everyone needs to take that into
consideration," she said. Rabiatou argued that any
international sanctions would have no impact on the
government itself, but only penalize the general population
"who have already suffered enough."


4. (C) According to Rabiatou, it is not yet apparent that
the power struggle is over. She said that there are several
groups actively considering a counter-coup. "International
sanctions would only empower these groups, leaving us to go
from coup to coup...and I do not know where we will end up if
that is the case," she told Poloff. Later in the discussion,
Rabiatou said that no one is sure who is propping up the
CNDD, but said that former President Conte's family may be
providing support behind the scenes. Again mentioning the
other groups maneuvering for power, Rabiatou said that
opposition leader Alpha Conde is backing one of these groups.
(COMMENT. Alpha Conde heads the Rally for the Guinean
People political party, which is predominantly Malinke. END
COMMENT).

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URGING BROADER CIVILIAN REPRESENTATION
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5. (SBU) Commenting on union discussions with the CNDD,
Rabiatou said that the unions are urging the CNDD to broaden
its representation by enlarging the Council with a higher
number of civilian members. She said that the unions had met
with the CNDD on December 30 and asserted that the Council
"must be a neutral organ of transition."

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CONSITUTION FIRST, THEN ELECTIONS
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6. (SBU) Rabiatou emphasized that before the country can
move toward elections, it is imperative that Guineans draft a
new constitution. "We need to revise the constitution and
then hold a national referendum. After we do that, we can
hold all the elections at the same time, presidential,
legislative, and local," she said. According to Rabiatou, if
the Conte regime were still in place, the elections "would
have never happened on May 31." She told Poloff that
progress was slow because no one was truly committed to
holding elections. Rabiatou said that the people no longer
have confidence in any of their political leaders, saying
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HELPING THE CNDD MOVE FORWARD
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7. (SBU) At the same time, Rabiatou said that the
international community should be focused on "reinforcing the
CNDD." She said that the new government needs to complete
financial audits in order to weed out corrupt former
officials. "We need a complete moral investigation...we need
to help citizens make a good choice," she said. Rabiatou
emphasized that failure to address the corruption and
constitutional issues would leave the country in the same
situation it has been for the last fifty years, regardless of
whether or not elections move forward.


8. (C) Rabiatou said that she is concerned about the CNDD
leadership, and that only broader civil representation and
assistance from the international donor community could
neutralize the military junta. She said that President
Camara has been making many promises, but that some of his
actions to date contradict his political statements. She
pointed out that the CNDD nominated the prime minister on
December 29, claiming that the PM would be the head of
government with all the powers of the position, but then
began nominating ministers before the new PM's plane had even
landed in country. (COMMENT. The only ministers who have
been officially named are the ministers of defense and
security, both of which are temporary appointments. Two
other ministers were named on December 29, including the
minister of finance, but later retractions leave some doubt
as to whether other appointments were or were not made. END
COMMENT).

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REACHING OUT TO CIVIL SOCIETY
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9. (SBU) When asked about the unions' political strategy,
Rabiatou said that the labor unions had already established
three commissions within their ranks, which will focus on
social issues, the constitution, and public relations. "The
CNDD cannot suspend union activities...we are not going to
just sit on our hands; if necessary, we will denounce the
government," she said.


10. (SBU) Rabiatou said that the unions have also been
meeting with other civil society leaders, including
opposition political parties. She claims that all agree that
the constitution needs to be amended. In addition, Rabiatou
said she is advocating in favor of reducing the number of
political parties from the more than 50 currently, to either
two or four parties. "We cannot have just three parties
because then they will only be ethnic, representing the
Malinkes, Soussous, and Peuhls; two or four parties forces
ethnic groups to build interethnic coalitions," she told
Poloff. Rabiatou said that many leaders are in favor of this
proposal, including opposition leaders Sidya Toure and Cellou
Diallo. However, she said that although Alpha Conde agrees,
he thinks the timing is wrong because political parties are
not yet ready to consolidate.

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FAVORABLE REACTION TO THE NEW PM
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11. (SBU) When asked about the new prime minister, Rabiatou
said that Kabine Komara is a good choice, and that he was one
of the names the unions put forward to lead the consensus
government after the 2007 labor strikes. "We cannot confirm
his sincerity...we need to be cautious, but we are content
with the decision," she said.

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CALLING ON THE "THIRD FORCE"
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12. (SBU) Making a case for international leadership,
Rabiatou said that Guineans need "a third force" in order to
emerge from the political and social crisis of the last fifty
years. She noted that although the CNDD seems to be saying
all the right things, so did former President Conte in 1984.
Rabiatou added that Conte had effectively "nourished the
roots of conflict," referring to manipulations based on money
and ethnicity, and that Guinea is still very much in danger
of descending into violent conflict. "I am afraid," she told
Poloff.

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COMMENT
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13. (C) Although she clearly had misgivings about the new
government, Rabiatou stressed that the coup was what was
needed to move the country forward. She seemed to be
counting on international pressure to reinforce civilian
efforts to keep the CNDD from reneging on its promise to cede
power to a democratically elected civilian government.
However, Rabiatou's comments suggest that she is no hurry to
have elections. Her priority is to "fix" the constitution in
order to avoid electing a new government that will only
perpetuate the problems of the past. Part of this approach
may stem from the unions' distrust of the opposition
political parties, which is tied to the unions' growing
political influence over the past few years, and union
demands to change the constitution to allow independent
candidates to run in elections.


14. (C) Rabiatou seemed focused on trying to unify various
civil society actors, including opposition political leaders,
in order to provide an effective civil balance to the
military junta. However, personal political ambitions,
money, and ethnicity have thwarted similar efforts in the
past. With power at stake, these problems may continue to
play a divisive role, and may hinder civil society efforts to
coalesce in a meaningful way. END COMMENT.
RASPOLIC