RULING PARTY AIMING FOR DECISIVE VICTORY IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000942

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INSB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM PTER EAID MOPS CE
SUBJECT: RULING PARTY AIMING FOR DECISIVE VICTORY IN
SOUTHERN PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS

Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION VALERIE C. FOWLER. REASONS: 1.4
(B, D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. The government is aiming for a strong showing
in this Saturday's final provincial election in the heart of
the ruling United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) Sinhala
Buddhist constituency to set the stage for victories in the
upcoming Presidential (January) and parliamentary (April)
elections. PolOff and PolAssistant traveled to several towns
in southern province, including Tangalle and the president's
hometown of Hambantota, meeting with candidates, election
monitors, and representatives from the various contesting
parties. Overall, the campaign was characterized by
intimidation and dirty tricks by both sides, though the
ruling party -- with its access to state resources -- made
much wider use of such tactics. Post predicts a decisive
victory for the UPFA coalition, but it is unclear whether
they will achieve their much-touted goal of 80 percent. END
SUMMARY.
Southern Election: Bellwether for National Elections


2. (C) President Mahinda Rajapaksa is hoping for a decisive
victory in his home province to set the stage for his
reelection in the January national elections. The UPFA --
which includes the president's Sri Lanka Freedom Party SLFP)
-- has won each of the previous seven provincial council
elections and is counting on the electorate's continued
appreciation for the defeat of the LTTE for its victory.
Rajapaksa's home province is 90 to 95 percent Sinhala
Buddhist, but the UPFA is concerned with potential spoilers
such as the yet-to-be announced United National Alliance, an
alliance between the United National Party (UNP) and a
breakaway of the SLFP's senior members, which could split the
Sinhala Buddhist vote in the upcoming national elections. The
UPFA has set its bar for victory high, predicting an 80
percent margin of victory.


3. (C) The UPFA's main opposition, the UNP, conducted a
low-key campaign, claiming that confronting the UPFA's
corrupt campaigning was a waste of their energy. Instead, the
UNP appears intent on conserving its political capital for
the national elections. UNP officials vaguely referred to the
UNA announcement and said that the party had held off making
an announcement due to fear of the government's reaction.
Despite its frustrations with the UPFA's campaign, the UNP
projected its confidence in its party leadership and in
Sanjith Premedasa, the former president's son, whose public
works have made him a popular candidate in the southern
province.


4. (C) The JVP conducted a high-profile campaign, and the
party's red flags were visible all over the southern
province. JVP offices were attacked with little police
response, especially in Galle and Matara, JVP officials
presented Poloff with a detailing of each incident.

Harassment, Election Violence
--------------


5. (C) The ruling party's blatant use of state machinery,
police inaction, and police and military harassment of the
opposition continues as in all past seven provincial
elections. It is organized and systematic. Much of the
election violence is internal to the UPFA and over preference
votes between Rajapaksa loyalists and stalwart SLFP members.
The government's intimidation of the UNP increased closer to
Hambantota, while it appeared to be more focused on the JVP
in Galle and Matara, probably in response to each party's
relative strength in the respective locales. (NOTE: The UNP
won four seats in the previous southern provincial election,
as did the JVP as part of its electoral alliance. END NOTE.)

COLOMBO 00000942 002 OF 002


PolOff observed police cut down legal UNP campaign flags
while interviewing a UNP candidate, and observed numerous
illegal UPFA flags and posters. Opposition campaigners
reported that economically vulnerable voters were intimidated
by threats from the government to withdraw their food stamps
if the UPFA discovered they voted against the ruling
coalition.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) Most observers are confident that the ruling SLFP will
win a comfortable majority in this weekend's election. But it
may be difficult for the UPFA to get the 80 perfect it has
been promising, even with its strong-arm tactics. Anything
less than a two-thirds majority in the president's
Sinhalese-Buddhist home constituency will be a matter of
concern for the ruling party going into presidential
elections in January.


7. (C) The violence and intimidation observed by PolOff and
PolAssistant was directed primarily at party buildings,
billboards, etc., and less physically at individuals, though
PolOff and PolAssistant did hear several reports of violence
against the opposition. The latter have not been passive,
but rather have fought back, giving the southern election
campaign a wild-West atmosphere. The ruling party clearly saw
these elections as an opportunity to get warmed up for the
presidential and parliamentary elections in January and
April, respectively. It is unclear, however, whether they
will be able to use the same strong-arm tactics they employed
on their home turf to such advantage elsewhere.
BUTENIS