SCENESETTER FOR JAFFNA MUNICIPAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 000780

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INSB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/06/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM EAID CE
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR JAFFNA MUNICIPAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS
- FREE AND FAIR??

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JAMES R. MOORE. REASONS: 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Jaffna Municipal Council elections will be
held on Saturday, August 8, the first elections in the Jaffna
area since 2004. The government is paying close attention to
this election, sending a number of ministers to campaign
there alongside Douglas Devananda, leader of the Eelam
People's Democratic Party (EPDP). Devananda has been
reluctantly persuaded by the President to run his candidates
under the UPFA party symbol and name, to the dismay of many
of his long-time local supporters. Most observers feel the
government called these elections quickly in order to get a
Tamil electorate "stamp of approval" on their actions since
the end of the war. Some normalcy has returned to Jaffna in
the past two months, with bus service starting up, some
commercial trucking allowed, decreased curfews and a lifting
of many fishing restrictions. However, many local citizens
remain deeply skeptical of the government, and suspect these
improvements will be taken away if the UPFA candidates do not
win. Residents are also concerned that even if the UPFA
candidates win and restrictions continue to be lifted, the
government will allow significant Sinhalese colonization in
the area, and promote economic development that favors
Sinhalese businessmen over local Tamils. Most residents
believe the UPFA candidates are likely to win, and a survey
of local voters two weeks prior to the election, conducted by
the Colombo-based Center for Policy Alternatives (CPA),gave
UPFA the highest percentage of support by a wide margin.
This same survey also showed a high number of undecided
voters and voters who would not divulge their choice. It is
not clear how high voter turnout will be. There are
lingering fears that Devananda's EPDP forces will resort to
voter fraud if nervous about the possible results. Fueling
suspicions, a large number of voter cards have been returned
to the post office as undeliverable. In reality, the degree
of control the government exercises over the Jaffna area
precludes these elections from being a contest between truly
representative political figures. End Summary.

OVERALL LIVING CONDITIONS IMPROVE...
--------------


2. (C) During a recent visit to Jaffna two weeks prior to
Municipal Council Elections, PolOff heard from local
residents and civic leaders that some improvements in basic
living conditions had appeared over the past two months since
the end of the war. The curfew at night had been reduced
significantly, and now lasts only from 11:00 PM until 4:30
AM. Fishing restrictions had been relaxed to allow outboard
motorboats, and while permits were still needed and required
a 1-2 month waiting period, once granted a fishing permit was
now good indefinitely, instead of simply for three months as
had been the case previously. In an economy that was
historically based to a large degree on fishing, this
appeared to be a significant improvement, and some contacts
spoke of the potential now of selling fish to the markets in
Colombo. The Jaffna Government Agent said he expected
fishing totals in the area to increase tenfold this year,
reaching possibly as much as 50% of pre-1983 production
levels. Trucks had now been allowed for a number of weeks
through to Jaffna from the South on the A-9 highway, with an
increase in consumer goods in stores, and fruits now in
markets from other areas of the island which had not been
seen for some time. Fuel prices had just been lowered,
although most people appear to still travel by bicycle.
There were frequent power outages during PolOff's visit. Bus
service resumed during the two weeks prior to the elections,
and a team of 8 Chinese engineers were in Jaffna during
PolOff's visit to assess the condition of the railway line
into Jaffna from the South. (Note: When asked if they
expected reconstruction of the railway would begin soon, the

COLOMBO 00000780 002 OF 004


engineers replied that would depend on financing.) Local
residents seemed to be cautiously optimistic that living
conditions will continue to improve, and indeed the CPA
survey found that 44% of respondents thought their quality of
life would improve over the next 3 years, with 37% unsure.

...BUT PROBLEMS AND FEARS REMAIN
--------------


3. (C) Despite of these recent improvements, residents and
local leaders expressed considerable unhappiness about
current conditions. Many complained that these recent
improvements were only due to the upcoming election, and said
they were certain the improvements would disappear if the
governing coalition's candidates did not win. Leaders in the
fishing village of Point Pedro said that although many
fishing restrictions had been lifted, larger trawlers based
in Colombo had recently begun fishing for month-long
stretches in the local waters, catching the larger fish and
storing them on ice on board their boats while the local
fisherman were confined to smaller boats and had to return to
shore every morning to deliver their catch to local markets.
They complained that any trucks delivering fish and produce
for sale in the South would likely be owned by southerners,
and shipping fees would be unfairly high. Citizens and local
leaders alike in both Jaffna and Point Pedro expressed
underlying fears of Sinhalese colonization, both literal and
economic. Many are convinced that the government will set up
military bases all over the North and expropriate land for
soldiers' families and other permanent Sinhalese settlers
from the South, in part in a bid to change the voter
demographics of the Tamil areas. They fear any investment
opportunities for economic development in the area will be
reserved for outsiders, either Sinhalese businessmen from
Colombo or foreigners from China and elsewhere. Locals in
and around Jaffna stated universally that it was necessary
for Tamils to have political power to preserve their culture.
Indeed the CPA poll showed that when asked what three
factors were most important to voters in selecting a
Municipal Council candidate, 51% replied it was the
candidate's ability to preserve the culture of Tamil society,
the most important factor by a large margin.

DOUGLAS DEVANANDA - A PARTY MAN?
--------------


4. (C) Although Douglas Devananda has long been a fixture of
local politics in Jaffna with his Eelam People's Democratic
Party (EPDP),President Rajapaksa persuaded Devananda to have
his local candidates run under the governing UPFA coalition.
Local civic leaders told PolOff that many EPDP supporters
were bitterly disappointed at this. The Catholic Bishop of
Jaffna (please protect) said he had met with Devananda just
after that decision was made, and he appeared very sad about
it, complaining that he had spent many years building up his
own party and it was now being subsumed into the President's
party. Many observers felt that President Rajapaksa was
taking over the EPDP just as he had previously done with
Karuna's TMVP in Eastern Sri Lanka. Although Devananda
himself is not running for office in this local election, it
is his image that has been used most often by the UPFA in
local campaigning, and many felt this was just a precursor to
what would happen if Provincial Council elections were held
in the North.

HIGH LEVEL OF OUTSIDE ATTENTION,
HEAVY GOVERNMENT CAMPAIGNING
--------------


5. (C) PolOff heard disbelief from a number of locals at how
much outside attention this local election was receiving,

COLOMBO 00000780 003 OF 004


including the PolOff visit itself. A number of government
ministers have traveled recently to the area, appearing
always with Devananda and his local candidates. Senior
Advisor to the President Basil Rajapaksa has visited on
several occasions during the campaign, each time announcing
the lifting of a restriction or the restoration of a service
such as civilian bus travel to the South. The fate of the
IDPs has also become a campaign issue. When visiting the
Ramavil IDP camp outside of the town of Jaffna, PolOff asked
a group of about twenty IDPs who they would vote for if they
were from Jaffna. They all quickly said they would support
whoever got them out of the camps. The UPFA campaign seems
to have picked up on this line of thinking, as some 3,000
IDPs from the camps in Vavuniya were reportedly returned home
to relatives in Jaffna on August 5th, with a campaign style
event arranged at a sports stadium in town for their arrival.
The event was attended by Basil Rajapaksa and Douglas
Devananda, and one of the local UPFA candidates allegedly put
out a press release the same day stating that he had been
responsible for the IDPs' release.


6. (C) Campaign posters, most of which were from the UPFA
coalition, were evident throughout Jaffna. They featured
photos of Devananda, often shown with President Rajapaksa or
with the A-9 highway in the background. Some of these
posters had the UPFA name and symbol blacked out by unknown
vandals, possibly unhappy EPDP supporters, and other parties'
posters were sometimes completely painted over. Mr.
Kanamayailnathan, Chief Editor of the local Uthayan
newspaper, said the TNA had done only minimal campaigning,
with some TNA Members of Parliament complaining that they
were not given sufficient permission to travel to Jaffna to
campaign effectively.

LITTLE MEDIA COVERAGE, FEW REPORTS OF VIOLENCE
-------------- -


7. (C) There has been little independent media coverage of
the election campaigns, with most reports coming either from
Tamilnet sources or GSL press statements. Uthayan Chief
Editor Kanamayailnathan said there are few local reporters
left in Jaffna, with many of the more senior reporters having
left to go abroad. Young journalists have also either left
or taken other jobs. Outside media watchdog groups,
including Reporters Sans Frontieres, complained that the GSL
was specifically not allowing reporters to travel to Jaffna
to cover the elections. The GSL countered that there is
little interest by local Sri Lankan press in the election,
and that very few international journalists have expressed
interest as well. The GSL stated that reporters were not
specifically denied access to Jaffna, but rather were simply
required to get travel permission from the Ministry of
Defense just as any other visitor to the Jaffna area would
be. As of two days prior to the election there were no
reports of significant violence during the campaign.

THE ELECTION
--------------


8. (C) The consensus among those who met with PolOff was
that Devananda's candidates, running under the UPFA symbol
and party name, will win the election quite handily. The CPA
sponsored poll showed 23.8 % support for UPFA, with the next
highest party at 7.3%. This same poll listed 44.7% as
undecided and 22.3% as refusing to answer, so there is still
some uncertainty about voter turnout and final results.
While EPDP has been suspected of using fraud in past
elections in the Jaffna area, it was unclear if they will
resort to that this time around. Instead they may rely on
the fear that recent improvements in Jaffna will disappear if
Devananda's people are not elected, and on a sense that

COLOMBO 00000780 004 OF 004


Devananda can bring home spoils if he and his local party
members come into power. CPA's poll showed that a full 27.5%
of voters would choose candidates because they had received
benefits of some sort from that candidate or their party. In
a meeting with PolOff, the Assistant Commissioner of
Elections expressed confidence that his team could conduct
the election without any problems. He said they will have
extra elections officials on hand, and are prepared for any
complaints to be handled quickly and appropriately. There
were reports that a large number of polling cards for the
district were returned to the post office as undeliverable,
leading to fears by some that these cards might be used by
imposters to stuff ballot boxes with fraudulent votes.

LOCALS SAY SECURITY FORCES THE REAL POLITICAL POWER
-------------- --------------


9. (C) Locals who met with PolOff almost uniformly said
that ultimately this election mattered little, as the only
people with real political power in the Jaffna area are the
government security forces. The government still holds
complete control over which people and what goods can get in
and out of the Jaffna area, maintains frequent checkpoints
and curfews to control the local population, and holds the
ability to determine use of land through high security zones
and demining priorities. Locals often said this upcoming
election would serve only to allow President Rajapaksa to
claim that Tamils in the area supported him and his conduct
of the country since the end of the war.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) While foreign governments and NGOs have called on
the government to ensure that the local elections in Jaffna
and Vavuniya are "free and fair", it is evident that much
more than simply holding an election is required to
politically enfranchise citizens, even if all parties are
allowed to run for office and no overt voter fraud occurs.
The level of control the government exercises over all that
happens in Jaffna is ultimately very high, whether through
the security forces based there, the access ordinary citizens
and opposition politicians have to visit or leave the area
freely, the economic activity and development that is allowed
to occur in the area, and of course the way in which the
massive numbers of IDPs are handled. Whatever political
solution is eventually proposed by President Rajapaksa,
citizens in the Jaffna area are unlikely to feel they have
even the possibility of truly representative political
officials until these overarching controls are substantially
reduced. End Comment.
MOORE