UNP SEEKS NEW STRATEGY TO CHALLENGE RAJAPAKSA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000744

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INSB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM PTER EAID MOPS CE
SUBJECT: UNP SEEKS NEW STRATEGY TO CHALLENGE RAJAPAKSA

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JAMES R. MOORE. REASONS: 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary. Poloff met recently with several key United
National Party (UNP) figures to discuss the UNP,s post-war
strategy. UNP contacts agreed that President Mahinda
Rajapaksa is currently enjoying his post-war honeymoon, but
felt that Sri Lankans would soon shift their focus to basic
economic issues. UNP contacts said that current UNP Leader,
Ranil Wickremasinghe, wants to contest the next presidential
election, but knows it would be difficult for him to win.
Many of these same contacts felt that the UNP needed someone,
or a team of people, that could inspire the confidence that
Ranil could not. S.B. Dissanayake was mentioned as a
possible UNP presidential candidate, in part because of his
popularity and ability stand up to the Rajapaksas.
Dissanayake told Poloff that he would like to run for
President, an election he predicted would be in February or
March 2010. Dissanayake explained that the UNP had put him
in charge of devising a new set of policies to reflect recent
political changes in Sri Lanka. These include a shift from a
federal political system with an executive president and a
pro-market economy to a "unitary political system" and a
"social open market economy." Dissanayake said that the UNP
is planning a broad new alliance to contest future polls.
UNP leaders, at least those under Ranil, seem acutely aware
of the enormous challenge they face in overcoming Mahinda
Rajapaksa,s overwhelming popularity. UNP leaders appear to
accept that they will need new ideas and charismatic
leadership to have even a chance at regaining power. End
Summary.

SINHALESE PUBLIC: IMMENSE GRATITUDE, BUT SHORT MEMORIES


2. (C) Poloff met recently with several key United National
Party (UNP) figures to discuss the UNP,s post-war strategy.
Businessman and personal friend of UNP leader Ranil
Wickremesinghe, Lalin Fernando, told Poloff on July 14 that
President Mahinda Rajapaksa is currently enjoying his
post-war honeymoon and is "getting a pass on everything" for
now. Prominent businessman and United National Party (UNP)
advisor, Dinesh Weerakkody, also the son-in-law of senior UNP
member of parliament (MP) John Amaratunge, told Poloff,
however, that the President,s honeymoon will run out in a
few months because "Sri Lankans have very short memories."


3. (C) UNP Assistant Secretary and MP Sajith Premadasa, son
of former President Ranasinghe Premadasa, in a July 17
meeting with Poloff said there is a general optimism among
the public following the war and that people are waiting for
an election to show their gratitude to the president. He
said that 79 percent of Sri Lankans live in rural areas, are
relatively poor, and are not concerned with civil liberties
issues. Premadasa also noted the short memory span of Sri
Lankans and said that the public would soon shift its focus
from the end of the war to issues such as the cost of living,
the breakdown in the education and health sectors, and
unemployment. However, he said that the UNP had a poor
record during its time in government from 2001 to 2004,
leaving the party with little moral high ground. He said the
ministers at the time were not empowered to deliver goods and
services to the people. In contrast, he said, Mahinda
Rajapaksa,s government not only won the war, but also has
delivered on development and infrastructure. (Note
Premadasa is mild-mannered, thoughtful, and wel-spoken. He
was an extraordinarily polite and gacious host. Premadasa,
who has a degree in international relations from the London
School of Economics, comes across as more westernized than
most UNP leaders. He was careful not to be self-promoting
and was measured in his comments about other UNP leaders.
End Note.)

WHO BEST TO CHALLENGE MAHINDA?

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4. (C) Lalin Fernando acknowledged that many in the UNP
were disappointed with Ranil. He said Ranil has difficulty
motivating people and is unwilling to make false promises, a
necessary evil in Sri Lankan politics. He said Ranil wants
to contest the next presidential election, but knows it would
be difficult for him to win. Fernando said that even those
who voted for Ranil in past elections would be unlikely to do
so again. Weerakkody said that declining support for the UNP
under Ranil has resulted in a shortage of funds for any
upcoming elections, including the current Uva Province
campaign. He said the UNP,s funding dried up after they
lost the Eastern Provincial council elections. Premadasa
told Poloff that the UNP has authoritarian, autocratic
leadership which has resulted in dysfunction, lethargy, and
apathy within the party. He said he was trying to engineer a
process to reinvigorate the party. Premadasa said that the
UNP needed someone, or a team of people, that could inspire
the confidence that Ranil could not, but stopped short of
endorsing himself for that role.


5. (C) UNP National Organizer and Central Province
opposition leader S.B. Dissanayake told Poloff in a July 24
meeting that Ranil was responsible for the UNP,s failures
and that his miscalculations since 2004 had led many strong
UNP figures to leave and join the government. He said the
party is in bad shape and needs a new face, new policies, and
a new strategy to return to power. He said that under the
existing party constitution, the UNP leader cannot be
changed; senior leaders have tried two or three times and
failed. However, he said, Ranil knows that he would lose
badly against Rajapaksa and has decided not to contest the
presidential election. Dissanayake said that Ranil,s top
choice for UNP presidential candidate, Karu Jayasuriya, is
also unpopular because he crossed over to the government and
back again. (Note: Dissanayake is extremely energetic and
informal. He bounded down the stairs for this meeting
wearing a pastel, rainbow-plaid sarong, white tunic shirt,
and no shoes. Throughout most of the meeting he sat
cross-legged on his couch and bounced up and down in
excitement. At one point, he grabbed a tennis racquet-shaped
bug zapper and began chasing flies around the room as he
talked, jumping on and off the furniture to reach them. End
Note.)


6. (C) Weerakkody mentioned S.B. Dissanayake as a possible
UNP presidential Candidate. He said that if Dissanayake ran
for president he would "trash the Rajapaksas," especially
with Sajith Premadasa as his running mate. Weerakkody
speculated however that Rajapaksa knows that Dissanayake,
because of his popularity, would be a formidable opponent and
will do everything he can to keep him from running. Ranil
also would find it difficult to work under Dissanayake, he
said, since he is a bit of a "thug." Weerakkody said this
thuggishness would allow him to compete effectively against
the Rajapaksas, whereas Ranil is too "nice and gentlemanly"
to hold his own. Weerakkody also noted that Dissanayake is
currently working to resolve a legal matter that could
prevent him from contesting the presidential election.
(Note: Dissanayake had his civic rights removed and spent
two years in jail after he was convicted of contempt of court
in 2004. According to local press, the Commissioner of
Elections maintains that he is ineligible to register as a
candidate or a voter until 2011. Nonetheless, Dissanayake
was elected to the Central Provincial Council in 2008 and
serves as the opposition leader there. End Note.)


7. (C) Dissanayake told Poloff that he would like to run
for President, an election he predicted would be in February
or March 2010. He said that Ranil has accepted him as the
UNP candidate, but is not ready to admit that publicly yet.
He added that Rajapaksa considered him to be a serious

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contender and was worried that he would be chosen as the
UNP,s candidate.


8. (C) Weerakkody told Poloff that Sajith Premadasa is as
popular as Mahinda Rajapaksa, and certainly more popular than
Ranil. He thought Sajith could get support from most of the
UNP,s leadership to run for President, but said Premadasa is
not ready for the job and is too "weak" and "cowardly" to
compete against the Rajapaksas.

NEW POLICIES AND ALLIANCES FOR A NEW ERA


9. (C) Dissanayake explained that the UNP had put him in
charge of devising a new set of policies to reflect recent
political changes in Sri Lanka. He said that previously the
UNP had advocated for a federal political system with an
executive president and a pro-market economy. Now however,
the UNP has proposed new policies including a "unitary
political system," featuring an executive prime minister and
maximum devolution to the provinces within a unitary state,
and a "social open market economy," which would be a liberal
economy with a focus on social welfare and workers rights.
He said the government would get involved in the markets if
it was necessary for "public benefit." The UNP has always
promoted democracy, media freedom, minority rights, and human
rights, and would continue to do so, he said.


10. (C) Dissanayake said that the UNP is planning a broad
new alliance to contest future polls. The alliance will
likely include Mangala Samaraweera,s Sri Lanka Freedom
Party-Mahajana, along with other unhappy SLFP members; Mano
Ganesan who has the support of urban Tamils; the Sri Lanka
Muslim Congress; and some estate Tamil politicians. He said
the Ceylon Workers Congress, an estate Tamil party, is
undecided about the alliance because its leaders do not like
Ranil. Dissanayake insisted that he could convince as many
as 10 to 12 ministers from the current government to support
the new UNP alliance and many more in the provinces.


11. (C) COMMENT: UNP leaders, at least those under Ranil,
seem acutely aware of the enormous challenge they face in
overcoming Mahinda Rajapaksa,s overwhelming popularity. UNP
leaders seem to accept that they will need new ideas and
charismatic leadership to have even a chance at regaining
power. The tricky part seems to be choosing that leader.
Those under Ranil seem to have accepted that he cannot be
removed and are striving, somewhat creatively, to work around
him. Of note is the party,s policy shift from supporting an
executive presidency to supporting an executive prime
ministership, in line with what the APRC report is likely to
recommend very soon to the President. This may explain
Ranil,s reported willingness to consider other UNP leaders
for the presidential candidate. Those in the running for
that post are probably willing to accept a job they know will
be downgraded for the sake of returning the party to power.
Regardless, the UNP will need come to a decision on its
leadership structure soon if it expects to build a campaign
with any realistic chance of successfully contesting the
expected presidential election.
MOORE