SRI LANKA: VANNI'S CIVILIANS SQUEEZED AS ARMY

C O N F I D E N T I A L COLOMBO 000065


DEPARTMENT FOR SCA AND PRM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2018
TAGS: PREL PREF MOPS CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: VANNI'S CIVILIANS SQUEEZED AS ARMY
PUSHES ON; LTTE LEADERSHIP GONE UNDERGROUND

REF: A. COLOMBO 33

B. COLOMBO 003

C. 08 COLOMBO 1078

D. 08 COLOMBO 1071

Classified By: Ambassador Robert O. Blake, Jr., for reasons 1.4(b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Concerns for the civilians trapped by
fighting in northern Sri Lanka are rising. Small but
significant numbers of IDPs from the Vanni have moved to
government-controlled territory as the continued advances of
the Sri Lankan Army have squeezed the 300,000 population
into a smaller and smaller area centered around
Puthukudiyiruppu (PTK). On January 17 heavy fighting
interrupted the return of the 11th World Food Programme
convoy after it delivered 818 tons of food. The convoy
remains trapped at PTK and has been told by the GSL it cannot
leave until Thursday. The ICRC released a rare public
statement highlighting the strain on the civilian population
in the North. ICRC sources reported to post that they are
attempting to negotiate a no-fire zone between the parties to
help assist movements in and out of Tiger-held territory.
Several reports indicate the LTTE leadership has gone
underground and can no longer be contacted. On January 18,
Army Chief Sarath Fonseka speculated that LTTE Supremo
Prabakharan "may have escaped" while declaring that the Tiger
leader "loves his family and his food" too much to commit
suicide. The Norwegian Ambassador reported to Ambassador
over the weekend that he had communicated a GSL offer of
amnesty for all LTTE fighters except the top two (Prabakharan
and Pottu Amman),but had yet to hear back from the LTTE.
The immediate priorities now are to use all available means
to encourage the LTTE to allow the IDPs to leave the Vanni,
and press the GSL to allow pauses in fighting so UN can
deliver food and other supplies to the IDPs while they
remain. The UN here will request that UN U/SYG for
Management Angela Kane, who retains a brief on Sri Lanka, try
to call the LTTE and President Rajapaksa to make these
points. The UNSYG himself will meet Basil Rajapaksa on
Monday January 27 in New York. Japanese Special Envoy Akashi
will be briefed so he too can make these points during his
January 22-25 visit to Sri Lanka. End Summary.

Limited Movements of
Civilians Out of the Vanni
--------------


2. (U) As the Army has continued to press in on Tiger-held
positions in the Vanni following the fall of Kilinochchi (Ref
B),the civilian population, fleeing the encroaching front
lines, has been pushed into a smaller area centered around
PTK in Mullaitivu district. Large numbers of civilians are
reportedly leaving Mullaitivu town headed west. Accompanying
the Army's advances, a small but significant number of
civilians have managed to escape. According to the UN 4,067
left the Vanni in the past two months for Jaffna and
Vavuniya.

Heightened Concern for
Civilians That Remain
--------------


3. (SBU) On January 17, after delivering 818 tons of food,
the 11th World Food Programme convoy was prevented from
leaving PTK for Vavuniya due to heavy shelling in the area.
UN resident representative Buhne told Ambassador on January
20 that Army Commander Fonseka had informed the UN the convoy
must remain at PTK until Thursday because the army does not
wish to pause its operations. Buhne appealed to Presidential
Advisor Basil Rajapaksa who has undertaken to talk to
Fonseka. Ambassador also has a call into Fonseka. WFP Head
Adnan Khan reported to Ambassador that the GSL's failure to
honor its safe passage agreement put into doubt the "paper
commitments" issued by both sides since the guarantees WFP
had received, were clearly inoperable. Khan speculated that
after the convoy's eventual return the UN logistics hub in
PTK might very well be closed, severely undermining WFP's
ability to provide further relief supplies to North's
civilians.


4. (C) The ICRC, in a rare public statement, also raised its
concerns about the conditions of the civilian population.
ICRC noted that no safe passage for those requiring medical
attention has been arranged since January 9 and that tens of
thousands of displaced civilians were now concentrated in an
area so small the organization had "serious concerns" for the
physical safety and hygiene of that population. ICRC sources
told post the ICRC is attempting to negotiate a no-fire zone
that would assist in efforts to provide relief to the Vanni's
residents.

Army Chief Speculates on Prabakharan's Departure
While Norwegians Pass Offer of Amnesty to LTTE
-------------- --------------


5. (C) One problem that the UN and ICRC are facing is the
increasing difficulty of communicating with the LTTE
leadership on operational matters. Several reports suggest
the LTTE leadership has gone underground. On January 18,
Army Chief Sarath Fonseka dismissed the notion that LTTE
Supremo Prabakharan would commit suicide, stating that the
LTTE's leader "loves his family and his food" too much to
kill himself. Fonseka went on to speculate that Prabakharan
may have already left the country offering Malaysia, Burma,
Cambodia and South Africa as potential destinations, adding
that anybody with a million dollars in their pocket could
find a corrupt foreign general to hide them.


6. (C) To capitalize on their military success and encourage
a quick end to the war, the Government passed a message
through the Norwegian Ambassador offering amnesty for all
LTTE cadres, with the exception of Prabakharan and
Intelligence Chief Pottu Amman. Norwegian Ambassador Hattrem
told Ambassador he was surprised the GSL had not briefed
Indian Foreign Secretary Menon on this offer during Menon's
visit to Colombo last week, calling into question how serious
an offer this may have been.

Next Steps
--------------


7. (C) The immediate priorities now are to use all available
means to encourage the LTTE to allow the IDPs to leave the
Vanni, and press the GSL to allow pauses in fighting so the
UN can send its convoy back to Colombo and negotiate
arrangements with the GSL to deliver food and other supplies
to the IDPs while they remain in LTTE controlled areas. As
communications with the LTTE become more difficult and LTTE
command and control begins to break down, the UN will find it
increasingly difficult to deliver food and other supplies.
At the same time, LTTE command and control deteriorates, the
IDPs will have a better chance of reaching GSL-controlled
areas. The risk is that the LTTE will do its utmost to keep
the civilians trapped as long as possible to slow the Sri
Lankan army's advances. The UN here will request that UN
U/SYG for Management Angela Kane, who retains a brief on Sri
Lanka, try to call the LTTE and President Rajapaksa to make
the points above. The UNSYG himself has tentative plans to
meet Basil Rajapaksa, the President's brother and chief
advisor on all political and humanitarian issues, on Monday
January 27 in New York. Japanese Special Envoy Akashi will
be briefed so he too can make these points during his January
22-25 visit to Sri Lanka.


Blake