SRI LANKA: PRESIDENT'S SUPPORTERS CALLING FOR

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SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INSB AND INR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: PRESIDENT'S SUPPORTERS CALLING FOR
EXTENSION OF HIS TERM - OR KING RAJAPAKSA?


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: A flurry of press reports and statements
by GSL officials and ministers over the past several weeks
has floated the idea of extending President Rajapaksa's term
of office without a competitive election. These suggestions
range from a proposal for a referendum that would allow
Rajapaksa to hold an up or down vote on extending his term by
several years, to a proposal for a constitutional amendment
to make him President for life. A more fanciful but
symbolically charged concept holds, with no apparent basis in
history or geneology, that Rajapaksa is of royal descent and
should be anointed as a Sinhalese king. The President has
dismissed such talk, saying all these paths would be
undemocratic. However, some observers believe he may be
allowing these statements in order to pave the way for a move
to extend his term of office without a regular presidential
election. END SUMMARY.

REFERENDUM PROCESS
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2. (SBU) The current constitution allows for the holding of a
national referendum in situations of "national importance."
In 1982 President J.R. Jayawardena used this provision,
Chapter 8 of the Constitution, to extend the life of the
parliament in which he held a 5/6 majority. However, it has
never been used to extend the term of a President before.
Once the President declares (by his own judgment) that such a
situation exists, a vote would then be taken of the Cabinet,
with a two-thirds majority required for passage. That would
be followed by a decision of the Supreme Court - all of whose
members were appointed by President Rajapaksa. The approval
process for such a referendum could be telescoped into as
little as one week. Then, a single, nation-wide vote would
take place. If passed by a simple majority of registered
voters, the referendum would extend the President's term of
office, presumably by several years.

PUBLIC CALLS FOR EXTENSION
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3. (U) Several ministers recently expressed support for
either a referendum or a constitutional amendment in public
statements. Media reported that a rally took place in the
Dambulla on June 14, where local UPFA officials and
supporters called for a referendum process to extend
President Rajapaksa's term of office by five years, bypassing
the regular presidential election due by November 2011.
Several political pundits have floated this idea in the Sri
Lankan print media. One such commentator claimed that the
referendum idea had been broached in a cabinet meeting, but
that President Rajapaksa had dismissed it as undemocratic.


4. (U) The Chief Minister of the North Central Province,
Berty Dissanayake, said on June 21 that general elections for
Parliament should still be held, but that a constitutional
amendment should and would then be passed to make Rajapaksa
the President for life. While a constitutional amendment
would require the support of a two-thirds majority of
Parliament, some feel the ruling UPFA could obtain such a
majority if general elections are held soon.

KING RAJAPAKSA?


5. (SBU) Less realistic (but more corrosive to post-conflict
reconciliation) are public suggestions that Rajapaksa should
become King of Sri Lanka. Ad campaigns began appearing in
government-controlled media and billboards shortly after the
military victory over the LTTE, suggesting that Rajapaksa
should be named king. On May 25, the chief prelates of the
two leading Buddhist sects, the Kandy-based Asgiriya and
Malwatte chapters, conferred the title of "Vishva Keerthi Tri
Sinhaladeeshwara", or Universally Renowned Chief of the

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Tri-Sinhala, on President Rajapaksa. This is only the third
instance in 2,500 years of recorded history that this title
has been conferred on a head of state. In the other two
instances, the title was given to kings of the now-extinct
Sinhala royal lineage, who united the country under one ruler
centuries ago by militarily defeating warring tribes within
the island.


6. (SBU) Rajapaksa previously ridiculed political leaders
who took kingly titles or behaved like monarchs. However, in
late May he visited the sacred bo-tree (Sri Maha Bodhiya) in
Anuradhapura, where the local chief prelates allowed him to
embed jewels at the bo-tree site, a privilege reserved
previously for the ancient Sinhala kings. State media has
also recently proclaimed Rajapaksa as "Prince Diyasena", or
the second incarnation of the Buddha. This refers to a
Buddhist tradition involving Prince Diyasena appearing 2,500
years after the original Buddha to save the Sinhala Buddhist
nation.


7. (SBU) COMMENT: Holding a referendum would be the easiest
and quickest way for President Rajapaksa to extend his term
without an election. Many observers feel that the President
might gain a larger majority in a yes/no vote than in an
election in which he faced other candidates. A
constitutional amendment to extend his term would require the
support of more MPs than are currently in his ruling
coalition - and there is no guarantee his coalition would
gain enough seats in a general election to push an amendment
through. The idea of crowning Rajapaksa King has been
celebrated in song in government-sponsored TV ads, and may
hold some appeal for some of his more ardent supporters.
However, many others in his coalition are embarrassed and
alarmed at such talk, and would likely put up strong
resistance. In spite of his rejection so far of such
proposals, some Embassy contacts feel that by allowing public
statements such as those described above to continue,
Rajapaksa is preparing the ground to later agree to a
referendum or constitutional amendment, saying at that point
that he is merely following the expressed will of the people.
MOORE