Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09COLOMBO552
2009-05-21 08:06:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Colombo
Cable title:  

MALDIVES: AMBASSADOR PUSHES FOR CONSOLIDATION OF

Tags:  PREL PGOV ECON EENV MV 
pdf how-to read a cable
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INFO RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA PRIORITY 1690
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 8698
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU PRIORITY 6932
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RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 0355
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000552 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/INSB AND OES PATRICK HUDAK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON EENV MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: AMBASSADOR PUSHES FOR CONSOLIDATION OF
DEMOCRATIC GAINS

REF: A. COLOMBO 531

B. COLOMBO 489

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires James R. Moore Reasons 1.4(b)(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000552

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/INSB AND OES PATRICK HUDAK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON EENV MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: AMBASSADOR PUSHES FOR CONSOLIDATION OF
DEMOCRATIC GAINS

REF: A. COLOMBO 531

B. COLOMBO 489

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires James R. Moore Reasons 1.4(b)(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In farewell calls on President Nasheed, Vice
President Waheed, and Foreign Minister Shaheed, Ambassador
warned of growing political and ideological polarization in
Maldives and encouraged the government to work closely within
its coalition and with opposition parties to continue and
further the country's democratic transition. He pushed the
GORM to appoint qualified members to independent
institutions, such as the Human Rights Commission, the
Elections Commission, and the Judiciary, and to ensure that
these and other government institutions have the ability to
operate without untoward political interference. Meanwhile,
opposition and coalition members warned that President
Nasheed is engaging in inappropriate and unconstitutional
behavior; FM Shaheed bluntly stated that Nasheed will be
impeached in the coming months. President Nasheed and others
praised Ambassador for his close and frank cooperation with
Maldives, particularly his efforts to assist the reform
process throughout the past two and a half years. End
summary.

Farewell, Mr. President!
--------------


2. (C) Maldivian President Mohamed Nasheed ("Anni") praised
Ambassador for his cooperation with Maldives throughout his
tenure as Ambassador, in particular his support for the
reform process and the country's recent transition to
democracy. He stated that he was rather pleased with the
recent parliamentary results (ref A),even if his Maldives
Democratic Party (MDP) was unable to gain the entire thirty
seats it targeted. "The important thing," he said, "was
obtaining 26 seats so that the government is safe." By safe,
the President meant that opposition party would be unable to
impeach him. He nevertheless underscored the importance of
maintaining the coalition, even though some of the Ministers
will likely change due to the shift in the power balance in
the Parliament.


3. (C) Nasheed asked the Ambassador for advice and
suggestions as the government moves forward, noting that he

is "undoubtedly making some mistakes, albeit
unintentionally." The Ambassador underscored the need, for
the long-term stability of recent democratic gains, for the
President to work closely with both his coalition and the
opposition. Ambassador stated that some firmly believe that
Maldives is becoming more polarized, both politically and
ideologically. To counter this, the President should take
sincere steps to engage meaningfully with others.


4. (C) Ambassador also encouraged the GORM to appoint
qualified individuals to the independent institutions that
many fought so hard for, including the Human Rights
Commission, the Elections Commission, and the Judiciary.
Highlighting the May 16 establishment of a presidential
commission to investigate allegations of corruption againstofficials of the former government, the Ambassador oted that
existing institutions could likely addess these allegations
without alienating the oppsition. Nasheed waved off the
Ambassador's concern, outlining that the new commission is
meant to assist those institutions merely through the
collection and sharing of data, not take action on its own.
Ambassador underscored that public perception does matter,
and that if such actions are seen as partisan, they can be
harmful to the government's ability to deepen the democratic
gains it has accomplished. The goal should be greater
inclusion of various parties in the political dialogue, not
polarization.

Climate Change
--------------


5. (SBU) Noting both the U.S. and GORM governments'
commitment to climate change, the Ambassador encouraged
closer bilateral cooperation on this issue. Nasheed agreed.
Looking ahead to the next round of climate change
negotiations in Copenhagen in 2010, Nasheed said that a
follow-on Kyoto Protocol document should be more proactive.

COLOMBO 00000552 002 OF 003


Rather than being a list of things that countries should not
do, it should tell countries what they should do; for
example, it could tell countries to build renewable energy
plants vice coal power plants. The Ambassador noted that the
U.S. has significant new and emerging green technology
available that could likely assist Maldives in its efforts to
become the world's first carbon-neutral country.


6. (SBU) In a subsequent meeting with Vice President Waheed,
the Ambassador congratulated Waheed as being chosen to
spearhead the President's Advisory Council Climate Change.
Waheed noted that his first goal is to clarify the GORM's
position, which will deal heavily with issues surrounding
adaptation. He is at present immersing himself in various
technology solutions, such as concetrated solar power, that
will aid Maldives. He lso noted that the GORM is at present
working wit Japan, which has sponsored a rural-electrication
project on a small island.

Discontent with Nasheed
--------------


7. (C) Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP) member (and Former
Foreign Minister) Abdulla Shahid and DRP MP (and power
broker) Thasmeen Ali outlined for Ambassador their view that
the May 9 parliamentary elections were a straightforward
statement by the public that the expectations aroused by
Nasheed have not been met. More importantly, Shahid said
that Nasheed acted inappropriately and unconstitutionally
during the election, causing disgust among voters. Shahid
alleged that the use of state resources by Nasheed to promote
his fellow candidates, as well as the denial of equal access
to state media for other parties, were just two of numerous
serious errors in judgment on the President's part.
Intimidation of civil servants was another. Ali stated that
Nasheed is now guilty of actions the MDP freqeuently
criticized the former government of taking. "He may state
democratic principles, but he does not promote them," Ali
commented.


8. (C) Shahid said many Maldivians now view Nasheed as "too
dictatorial." This was echoed by current Foreign Minister
Ahmed Shaheed, who stated that parts of Nasheed's government
"are crossing lines that Gayoom did not cross." He warned
that while the government should see itself as a caretaker
helping to transition itself to a better democracy, many
instead appear to want to establish a foundation for a new
thirty-year dictatorship under Nasheed. Speaking frankly, he
stated that the government was "devastated" by its poor
performance in the parliamentary election, but relieved that
it received the necessary 26 seats to block impeachment.
However, Shaheed predicted frankly that one individual would
leave the MDP, and that the President would be impeached for
his actions at some point this year. Shaheed explained that
if an impeachment takes place, the President must immediately
resign. The Vice President takes control, and new elections
must take place within six months.


9. (C) Shaheed noted that many within the government and
Shaheed's own party, Dhivehi Qaumee Party (DQP),are
frustrated because the government refuses to take advice from
others or to consider taking a middle path. Shaheed stated
that establishing the rule of law should be the government's
top priority, but it seems the government is too interested
in politicking to focus on its pressing legislative agenda -
a task that will now be more difficult with DRP control of
Parliament. Salah Shihab, fellow DQP member, told Ambassador
that many people voted for former President Gayoom's DRP
party as they felt it was the only party powerful enough to
check Nasheed's rising ambitions

IMF: FM expects request in 2009
--------------


10. (C) Maldives remains i serious financial straits.
Revised budget expenitures are expected to be 67% of GDP
(ref B) in 2009. Tourist arrivals are down by a
less-than-expected 10-15%, but various sources report
tourists are spending considerably fewer dollars in country
than normal. A black market for U.S. dollars, which is
pegged at 12.8 Maldivian rufiyaa against the U.S. dollar, has
emerged. FM Shaheed stated that despite a concessional loan

COLOMBO 00000552 003 OF 003


of $100 million from India in late 2008, the government will
need to request IMF assistance this year to avert failure.
He commented that the President is loathe to do so because he
is wary that IMF conditions will result in a need to get rid
of many political appointees to cut government expenditures.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) We find some of the rhetoric about Nasheed's and the
MDP's "dictatorial tendencies" overblown. Maldives has made
considerable progress in democratization in the last two
years. The outcomes of the two elections - presidential and
parliamentary - should speak for themselves; each was won by
the opposition at the time, although the ruling party and the
opposition had changed roles. Maldivians have now firmly
established the principle that they can and will change their
government at the ballot box. Still, there can be no denying
that Nasheed and the MDP botched what should have been a
relatively easy interregnum betwen the two elections by
trying too hard to set themselves up as the new natural party
of government. They have now paid the price for their
attempt at political hegemony. Concerns about Anni's ability
to lead his country to a scucessful completion of its
democractic reform process are strong and growing; it will
now be interesting to see whether the MDP can manage the
disappointment generated by its unexpectedly clear election
loss. Embassy believes that a period of "cohabitation"
between the MDP-led government and the Parliament's
opposition majority could actually help to consolidate the
principle of pluralism in Maldives - but only if both parties
can demonstrate greater political maturity. It is up to them
to make this work; a failure to cooperate would be a major
setback for Maldives' so-far successful experiment in
democracy.
MOORE