MALDIVES: FORMER RULING PARTY NARROWLY WINS ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000531

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/INSB

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: FORMER RULING PARTY NARROWLY WINS ELECTIONS


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Maldives held its first multiparty parliamentary
elections on May 9. Long delays in counting and announcing results
led to unruly protests and some violence in the capital, Male'.
Provisional results announced by the Elections Commission on May 11
showed that the party of former President Gayoom edged out the
current ruling party of President Nasheed. Another party allied to
the former President came in third. Independent candidates, who won
13 seats, may prove to be the deciding factor in which party gains
effective control of the new Parliament. A de facto opposition
majority could prove difficult for the government to manage,
frustrating many initiatives in its reform agenda. End summary.


2. (U) The Republic of Maldives held its first multiparty
parliamentary elections on May 9th. Several election observation
groups, such as Transparency Maldives, the British Commonwealth, and
a group of Colombo-based diplomats organized by the European
Commission Delegation were present to witness whether the elections
were conducted in a free and fair manner.

PROVISIONAL RESULTS: NARROW WIN FOR OPPOSITION
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3. (U) Provisional official results show the main opposition party,
former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom's Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party
(DRP),winning 28 seats, edging out the ruling Maldivian National
Party (MDP) with 26 seats. The People's Alliance (PA) is winning 7
seats, giving the opposition DRP-PA alliance a total of 35 seats,
just four short of a majority in the 77-member Majlis. The smaller
members of the coalition government apparently won only three seats.
The Dhivehi Qaumee Party (DQP, earlier "New Maldives") of former
Attorney General Hassan Saeed and current Foreign Minister Ahmed
Shaheed are leading in just two constituencies, while the Republican
(Jumhooree) party of former Atolls Minister Gasim Ibrahim is winning
just one. It appears the remaining coalition parties - the Adaalath
Party, the Social Liberal Party, Maldives National Congress and
National Alliance will not be represented in the new Majlis.

MDP WILL NEED TO ATTRACT INDEPENDENTS
--------------


4. (SBU) President Nasheed welcomed the outcome and the election as
an important step for democracy, adding that the opposition would
keep the government accountable to the public. However, the results
can only come as a disappointment to President Nasheed's MDP, which
was hoping to win 50 seats or more. The MDP will now have to
scramble to keep its erstwhile allies - the biggest losers in this
election - on board, and then attract the support of the lion's
share of the independents. This may occur on an ad-hoc basis. The
lack of a stable working majority would obviously hinder the MDP in
pushing forward its proposed legislative agenda comprising 65 bills,
including legislation on transport, taxation, public utilities,
housing, health insurance, privatization, and reforming the drug
laws, penal code and criminal justice system.

A SMOOTH START...
--------------


5. (U) The presence of the observer groups appeared to help, as the
election officers made efforts to ensure that the election process
was transparent. Early on, the majority of the complaints involved
voters turning up at the wrong polling station. Most of these were
resolved quickly, without the need to file a formal complaint with
the National Complaint Bureau.

... A TURN FOR THE WORSE
--------------


6. (SBU) As election day progressed, more serious complaints began
to emerge. There were campaign materials posted directly across
from a polling station and a candidate campaigning in the vicinity
of a polling station, both violations of election regulations.
Observers representing an independent candidate filed a complaint,
which was not effectively handled by the complaints bureau. There
were also a number of allegations of bribery, intimidation and
complaints against elections officials and observers.


7. (SBU) At the end of the day, confusion and frustration arose
during the scheduled close of polling stations when the Election

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Commission (EC) notified polling stations that instead of closing
the polls at 8 p.m., they would extend voting until 1 a.m. Polling
stations were also notified that no registration complaints would be
accepted after 8 p.m., but that other types of complaints could
still be filed. Soon after came another announcement that stations
with unresolved complaints would remain open while stations with no
outstanding complaints and nobody waiting in the queue could close
the polls and begin counting ballots.

IMPATIENCE LEADS TO VIOLENCE
--------------


8. (U) Independent candidate Ibrahim Waheed expressed concern about
possible ballot stuffing, saying he feared that the situation could
turn violent. Waheed's fears of violence were realized when a crowd
of 300 to 400 protesters, including members of the main opposition
DRP, gathered at 10:30 p.m. outside the temporary elections
Commission headquarters for tabulating votes, demanding that the
results of the elections be announced. The protest turned violent,
and a 20-year-old man was stabbed in the chest and stomach and
remains in critical condition. Police have taken two men into
custody in connection with the incident.


9. (SBU) COMMENT: Despite the unfortunate violence, mechanical
imperfections and the delay in posting results, in our judgment the
election was relatively free and fair. The results - a clear, if
narrow, opposition win - appear to speak for themselves. If, as
some analysts expect, most of the independent candidates align
themselves with one of the two main groupings, then Maldives may be
headed for a period of consolidation in which two parties
predominate. Maldives' "presidential" constitution and its
first-past-the post electoral system may reinforce this tendency.


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