Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09CHISINAU929
2009-12-04 14:48:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Chisinau
Cable title:  

CRACKS IN THE ALLIANCE -- HOW STRONG IS

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PINR MD 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHCH #0929/01 3381448
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 041448Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY CHISINAU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8633
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L CHISINAU 000929 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PINR MD
SUBJECT: CRACKS IN THE ALLIANCE -- HOW STRONG IS
THE GLUE?

Classified by: Ambassador Asif J. Chaudhry for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L CHISINAU 000929

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PINR MD
SUBJECT: CRACKS IN THE ALLIANCE -- HOW STRONG IS
THE GLUE?

Classified by: Ambassador Asif J. Chaudhry for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Since the July 29 elections, the
Alliance for European Integration (AIE) has
overcome numerous hurdles to elect a Speaker, form
a government, and launch reforms. But while the
AIE's four leaders have made numerous compromises,
each compromise has revealed the differences
within the group. Most significantly, rivalry and
mistrust between PM Vlad Filat and presidential-
candidate Marian Lupu has strained the Alliance's
cohesion. It is widely believed that Filat fears
he might lose his Prime Minister seat if Lupu
becomes President and that he has decided his
interests would be better served by repeat
elections. The prospect of new parliamentary
elections in 2010 should Lupu fail to secure
election as President could push them further
apart, even threatening a split in the Alliance.
At the same time, the Communist Party (PCRM)
continues to push a "left-center" coalition of
their party, Lupu's Democratic Party, and perhaps
AEI leader Serafin Urechean's Our Moldova Alliance
(AMN). Nonetheless, both Filat and Lupu remain
bound by mutual interest and have assured us that
they are committed to the AIE. End Summary.

Significant Alliance Achievements
--------------


2. (C) In the four months since its formation
after the July 29 repeat elections, the AIE's
achievements have been impressive. The
coalition's four leaders quickly resolved the
structure and composition of their new government
and divvied up leadership positions. They
consolidated control over state institutions and
rapidly reached agreement with the IMF, nominated
a negotiating team for MCC, amended legislation,
and began ambitious reforms.

Ideological Differences
--------------


3. (C) Though there have been a series of thorny
issues to resolve, the clear benefits of
cooperation to maintain a parliamentary majority
allowed the necessary compromises to be reached.
However, at each of the key steps, complex behind-
the-scenes negotiations were required to allow the

leaders to reach consensus. And each passing
compromise has revealed differences among the
AEI's constituent parties and leaders.


4. (C) Ideologically, the Alliance partners are a
motley crew, united more by opposition to the
Communists than by common positions. They run the
gamut from right of center -- Filat and especially
Speaker/Acting President Ghimpu, who believes in
unification with Romania -- to the left of center
Lupu and Urechean, who argue for a more balanced
relationship with both Russia and the West.
Differences in orientation come into play when
determining policy on a host of political and
economic issues, most visibly on relationships
with Russia and with NATO, and also on domestic
issues such as Moldova's high school history
curriculum.


5. (C) Both Filat and Ghimpu have expressed
concerns that Lupu -- who left the Communist Party
in June -- was not truly committed to Moldova's
Euro-Atlantic integration. (Note: Despite
Ghimpu's initial concerns about Lupu's sincerity
in leaving the PCRM, since then both Ghimpu and
Urechean have consistently expressed support for
Lupu's election.) At the same time, several AIE
leaders privately have disparaged Ghimpu. For
example, after the AIE's initial meetings, Filat
warned the Ambassador that Ghimpu's strong
rightist views "will present problems" for
Alliance unity. On several occasions Filat has
also expressed frustration with Ghimpu's handling
of issues and has even questioned his competence.
Lupu also has worried that Ghimpu is an irritant
to the Russians (and has told us that the PCRM has
repeatedly offered to ally with him if he will
dump Ghimpu as Speaker.)

Filat - Lupu Rivalry
--------------


6. (C) Policy differences also have been
accompanied by personal clashes and dueling
ambitions between Alliance leaders. The
fundamental fault line within the Alliance is in
fact the competition between Filat and Lupu, the
two younger, more ambitious members of the
foursome. The two initially clashed in August
when Lupu upset the initial AIE power-sharing
agreement -- in which Lupu would be President and
Filat Speaker -- by demanding the Speaker
position. A compromise was reached by which
Ghimpu became Speaker and Filat the PM-candidate,
but the dispute left much bad blood between the
two.

Filat: Lupu Cannot Be Trusted
--------------


7. (C) Their mutual mistrust appears to only have
grown in subsequent months. Filat has expressed
concerns about Lupu's ties to Russia and
uncoordinated visits to Moscow. For example, in
late October, amidst reports that both Lupu and
Voronin were traveling to Moscow, Filat told the
Ambassador that he did not believe Lupu was
sincere on issues related to Moldova's relations
with Euro-Atlantic institutions and was concerned
that he (Lupu) was cooking up a deal with the
Russians. Filat warned that if Lupu adopted a
political position that he (Filat) considered
unacceptable, he would not vote for Lupu for
President. In late November, Filat and FM Leanca
(who is from Filat's party) again expressed alarm
to the Ambassador at reports that Lupu and PCRM
leader Voronin would be traveling to Russia.


8. (C) Furthermore, Filat has mentioned on several
occasions his concerns that Lupu is not to be
trusted as President. In particular, Filat is
concerned that Lupu will sack him as PM.

Lupu: Filat Looking to Elections
--------------


9. (C) At the same time, Lupu has made clear his
lack of trust in Filat. For example, in late
October he complained to the Ambassador that Filat
was not giving him readouts of his (Filat's)
meetings (such as those with Voronin and Voronin's
closest advisor MP Mark Tkaciuk),and charged that
Filat had decided that his interests were better
served by repeat elections than by having Lupu as
President. (Note: PCRM MP Igor Dodon alleged to
the Ambassador in early November that Filat had
told him "not to vote for Lupu.") Lupu also told
DAS Russell on November 19 that "other Alliance
leaders" were not campaigning hard enough for his
election.


10. (C) Lupu also complained to the Ambassador
that Filat was using the media under his control
(the newspaper Timpul and the news service
Unimedia) to further his interests. For example,
he charged that during the election of the
Prosecutor General (in early October),Filat's
media had suggested that Urechean and other
Alliance members were selling positions. Lupu
told us that at an October 7 meeting of the four
leaders to discuss the nomination of the
Prosecutor General, Lupu and Filat "were literally
yelling at each other in rage" over this
suggestion. Lupu said he was upset by Filat's
high-handed manner in dealing with other Alliance
leaders -- including summoning them to a meeting
30 minutes before the vote and sitting "in a big
chair like a king" while the others were given
smaller seats.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) From the very inception, it has been clear

that the Alliance contains ideological differences
and competing egos. The disagreements have only
increased, with the election (or non-election) of
Lupu on December 7 now being a potentially
critical test for the Alliance. Should Lupu

believe that Filat sabotaged his election --
rumors are circulating (see septels) that Filat's
MPs may vote against Lupu even if enough PCRM MPs
break ranks to otherwise secure Lupu's election --
he may bolt into the waiting arms of the PCRM, who
continue to hold out the offer of a coalition.
There is also the possibility that even if the
PCRM boycotts the vote (leading to a failed
election),Lupu, facing the prospect of a lengthy
period as a "regular" MP before new elections,
could decide to ditch the Alliance for the
Communists. Finally, the prospect of early
parliamentary elections themselves could divide
the leaders further as each begins to focus on
their party's electoral campaign and prospects.


12. (C) Nevertheless, it has been equally clear
that by working together, the Alliance leaders
have formed a majority in Parliament and have put
together a coalition government. They have
overcome many significant hurdles, and all --
including Filat and Lupu -- have told us
repeatedly that they understand they have no real
choice but to stick together at this time.
United, they can work together to achieve their
common goals.

CHAUDHRY