EX-PRESIDENT VORONIN SPECULATES ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L CHISINAU 000926

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PINR RS MD
SUBJECT: EX-PRESIDENT VORONIN SPECULATES ON
UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Classified by: Ambassador Asif J. Chaudhry for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: In a December 3 meeting with the
Ambassador, ex-President Vladimir Voronin
reaffirmed his position that the Party of
Communists (PCRM) would not participate in the
December 7 presidential vote. He conceded that a
group of PCRM MPs led by Vladimir Turcan and
Victor Stepaniuc appeared ready to break with his
party and said that each MP would be free to vote
if he chose to. Nevertheless, he predicted that
new parliamentary elections were all but certain,
both because too few PCRM MPs would vote for
Alliance candidate Lupu and because it was
possible that some of PM Filat's MPs would vote
against Lupu. Voronin also was sharply critical
of Speaker and Acting President Ghimpu's proposal
to introduce a new Constitution should Lupu's
election fail, and vowed that the PCRM would
oppose a referendum on this subject. Although
Voronin told the Ambassador that he opposed
letting the PCRM vote for Lupu, we had the
impression that he has not yet made up his mind
what to do. End Summary.

PCRM Will Not Participate -- But MPs Free to Vote
-------------- --------------


2. (C) In a December 3 meeting, Ex-President
Voronin and the Ambassador discussed at length the
upcoming parliamentary balloting for President
scheduled for December 7. Voronin said that the
current Parliament, under "the idiot" Ghimpu, was
"irrevocably flawed," and that Moldova needed new
parliamentary elections. He said the PCRM would
once again walk out of Parliament before the
presidential vote (as they did on November 10),
and predicted that Alliance candidate Lupu would
fall short of the 61 votes for election. However,
he said (somewhat contradictorily) that if some
PCRM deputies wanted to stay and vote that was
their prerogative. As party leader, it was not
his business to force anyone to vote in a certain
way.


3. (C) Voronin said that while there has never
been a case of a "treachery" within the PCRM, he
also said that he was aware of rumors that a group
of PCRM deputies claimed to be ready to vote for
Lupu. He said that he did not know whether there
were "six, eight or twelve, or even 20" such MPs,
but that it was best to wait until December 7 and
see what transpired.


4. (C) Voronin noted that the most active of these
rumored breakaway MPs was Vladimir Turcan. In
what appeared a veiled threat he noted that Turcan
had "certain interests" (i.e. business interests)
and thus could "lose a lot." He also told the
Ambassador that former Deputy Prime Minister
Victor Stepaniuc was ready to split and had
written a 15-page letter to the party outlining
his position. But while Voronin acknowledged
that such a breakaway development would be a blow
to the unity and image of the PCRM, he dismissed
the rumors of a large-scale exodus as "just talk."


5. (C) Furthermore, Voronin suggested that even if
some PCRM MPs did vote for Lupu, some of PM
Filat's deputies might refrain from voting, since
it was "not in Filat's interest" to see Lupu
become President. If the Alliance sees that no
one from the PCRM votes, then, predicted Voronin,
they will all vote for Lupu. On the other hand,
he stated, if some PCRM MPs voted, he expected
that an equal number of Filat's deputies would not
vote for Lupu. Voronin claimed to his
information regarding Filat's intentions came from
"most reliable sources."

Voronin Not Interested in Lupu's 12 Principles
-------------- -


6. (C) Voronin also dismissed Lupu's offer of 12-
point proposal for cooperation between the
Alliance and PCRM -- which Lupu released recently
-- as purely Lupu's initiative, and not that of
the Alliance. According to Voronin, it was clear
that Lupu had not consulted with the rest of his

Alliance partners on this document. Thus, Voronin
concluded, even if the PCRM accepted it, the
accord could not be implemented. In response to
the question of whether Voronin would find the "12
Principles" acceptable if all four Alliance
leaders signed on to support it, Voronin said that
as a "matter of principle" Lupu should have also
promised that the Democratic Party would leave the
Alliance.


7. (C) Voronin related that in private
conversations with Lupu, he had repeatedly said
that if the latter wished to cooperate with the
PCRM, he should split from the Alliance and enter
a coalition with the PCRM. With the PCRM's 48
votes and Lupu's Democratic Party's 13, they would
have the majority needed to elect the President.
Voronin said he believed such a coalition would be
supported by PCRM members, the population of
Moldova, and even the European Union.


8. (C) In a rather surprising aside given his
previously expressed bitterness and opposition to
Lupu, Voronin praised the presidential candidate
as being "smart, proper, intelligent and decent."
He also said that Lupu "was not a traitor," that
he (Voronin) "sympathized" with him and "viewed
him like a son," but that he "could not help him
now."

Concerns About Ghimpu
--------------

9. (C) Voronin also said that he was concerned
about the Alliance's position on Moldova's
statehood, pointing to Ghimpu's statements on
December 1 (Romania's National Day) about his
Romanian identity. Thus, he concluded, even if
the other three Alliance leaders supported Lupu's
"12 Principles," an agreement was not in PCRM
interest. Voronin said that "after eight years of
working around the clock," he was not ready to
hand the country over to someone like Ghimpu.
Voronin also disparaged Ghimpu's intelligence, at
various times calling him an "idiot" and claiming
that the acting President had "undergone brain
surgery three times." Voronin added that he had
meet with Filat and Lupu and would continue to do
so, but could not meet with Ghimpu.

New Constitution: A Big Mistake
--------------


9. (C) Voronin noted that the Alliance had already
initiated discussions of a new Constitution.
(Note: Should Lupu's election fail, some Alliance
leaders have suggested that the Constitution be
rewritten to either lower the parliamentary
threshold for electing a president or to allow for
direct presidential elections. Adopting a new
Constitution is considered to be easier than
amending the existing Constitution, which would
require 67 votes in Parliament). He argued that
this was "a big mistake" as a country's
Constitution was "like its Bible." Once it exists,
it could not be rewritten, he said. He also noted
that the Communists had made only one amendment in
their eight years in power -- accommodating Gagauz
autonomy.


10. (C) Voronin said that the Communists would
oppose a new Constitution whether it was proposed
by Parliament or by referendum. He also remarked
that in recent days, Lupu had made "some wise
declarations" against the idea of introducing a
new Constitution. Nevertheless, he conceded that
the population might support direct presidential
elections. Voronin said that the Alliance better
be careful as a new constitution allowing direct
elections would open the door from him to run as
well, and he might actually do so.

Russia: No Support for Lupu
--------------


11. (C) Voronin also commented on Russia's actions
in Moldova, saying that there were forces in
Russia that could not give up Russia's strategic
hegemony over the territory of the former Soviet
Union. However, since his late October visit to
Moscow, he had not discussed these issues further


with the Russians. On the other hand, suggested
Voronin, Lupu was making efforts to court the
Russians and had even gone to St. Petersburg for
the Edinaya Rossiya party congress last week,
though Voronin said that Lupu had returned
"without results." Voronin said he was convinced
that at this point the Russians were not
supporting Lupu, though Lupu was seeking their
support.

Comment
--------------


12. (C) Voronin's discourse during the meeting was
disjointed and occasionally contradictory. He
appears to have softened in his attitude towards
Lupu. Although he said he remains opposed to
Lupu's election and set on new parliamentary
elections in 2010, it appears he has not really
made up his mind what to do. It does appear that
Turcan, Stepaniuc, and others within the PCRM
faction are set to cast their votes for Lupu and a
split is in the making. At this point, they
appear to have little to lose. By openly telling
Voronin of their intentions and arguing in favor
of having the PCRM vote on December 7, they have
already moved beyond the point of no return. The
damage in Voronin's eyes is already done, the
public is aware of their desire to break with the
party, and they would be better off taking bold
action. It is also apparent that with the PCRM
out of power, Voronin lacks the ability to hurt
breakaway MPs that he once had with the state
apparatus behind him. Nevertheless, it is still
unclear -- indeed, to everyone here -- whether
Lupu will have the votes to assure his election.

CHAUDHRY