PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE LUPU DISCUSSES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000900

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PBTS ECON RS MD
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE LUPU DISCUSSES
ELECTORAL CHANCES WITH DAS RUSSELL

Classified by: Ambassador Asif J. Chaudhry for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: In a November 19 meeting with
visiting EUR DAS Russell, presidential candidate
Marian Lupu articulated his philosophy that
Moldova could serve as a bridge between East and
West. With regard to his electoral prospects, he
said he "could not rule out" the possibility that
he would garner the needed votes from Communist
Party MPs (PCRM). Should he fail to be elected,
Lupu said he opposed Acting President Ghimpu's
idea of introducing a new Constitution, suggesting
that it would be better to have a referendum to
either change the number of votes needed in
Parliament to elect a President or to introduce
direct popular voting for the President. Andrei
Popov, who accompanied Lupu, complained that the
other Alliance for European Integration (AIE)
leaders were not being proactive in supporting
Lupu as candidate for President. End Summary.

Balance East and West while Developing Economy
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2. (C) Lupu opened his November 19 meeting with
DAS Russell by explaining his views on the need
for Moldova to pursue a balanced approach between
East and West. Moldova should not have to choose
between East and West in an "either-or" fashion,
he said, but rather should take an "and-and"
approach to become a bridge between the two. In
addition, achieving greater European integration
did not eliminate the need for strong relations
with the East, he argued. Moldova's energy
sources, foreign trade and most important markets
all lay in Russia, he said, so Moldova needed an
intelligent strategy for maintaining the
advantages it gained from existing relations in
the CIS, while also growing closer to the West.


3. (C) According to Lupu, Moldova should keep its
economic relations with CIS partners, while
simultaneously diversifying the structure of its
economy. For too many years the wine sector had
been the mainstay of Moldova's economy, he argued.
Moldova now needed to develop new areas, such as
in high added value sectors, predominantly in the
service sector, in order to take advantage of
Moldova's geographic position and attract more
foreign direct investment.

Seeking Eight Votes to Become Moldova's President
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4. (C) Lupu then turned to the burning political
question of the day: whether or not he would
garner the eight votes needed to become Moldova's
next President. He noted that there were two
possibilities for him to be elected -- either that
there would be a general decision on the part of
the Party of Communists to provide the votes, or
that a group of at least eight MPs would break
away from the PCRM and vote for him. A third
scenario was that the Communists would boycott the
vote altogether.


5. (C) Lupu also said he was concerned that if the
Alliance was not successful in its work, the PCRM
would return to power. He was therefore
simultaneously lobbying the PCRM to vote for him
and lobbying select PCRM MPs to break ranks to
support him. Despite the difficulties, Lupu said
that the possibility of persuading the PCRM to
vote for him "could not be excluded." Though
Voronin had publicly opposed this option, Lupu
noted that the ex-President was "capricious" and
could "hold one opinion in the morning and a
different one in the evening." Lupu also said he
was meeting every day with members of the PCRM
faction to convince them to vote for him.

New Constitution: Pandora's Box
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6. (C) Lupu added that should his election fail,
the Alliance would need to take stock and decide
what to do next. He had already heard proposals
to modify certain provisions of the Constitution
to facilitate electing a President. Lupu said

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categorically that he would oppose adopting a new
Constitution. First of all, it would not be
possible to produce a new draft, discuss it
publicly, and hold a referendum all within a few
months. Even more importantly, he said, it would
send "an extremely bad message" both domestically
and to foreign capitals, as it was not appropriate
to "play" with the Constitution "in such a
politicized fashion."


7. (C) Lupu continued that if the question of a
new Constitution were put on the table, it would
open a Pandora's box of proposals including
introducing Russian as a second state language,
eliminating neutrality, changing the status
Gagauzia, and Transnistria's status, all of which
could polarize Moldovan society. Lupu suggested
that a new Constitution could not be introduced
within a few months (as Ghimpu seemed to believe),
and said that he would prefer a referendum on
procedures for electing a President. Such a
referendum could be either to change the number of
votes required in Parliament to elect a President,
or to introduce direct popular ballot for the
President.

Lupu Wants Stronger Alliance Backing
--------------


8. (C) Democratic Party MP Andrei Popov, who
accompanied Lupu (and who was appointed Deputy
Foreign Minister the following day, on November
20),mentioned that the next two weeks would be
the critical period for maximizing the chances of
having a President. He said that he believed the
Communists were trying to split the Alliance, and,
revealing the frictions within the Alliance,
suggested that the other coalition leaders were
not active enough in backing Lupu.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) As the Alliance's candidate for President,
Lupu is at the center of Moldova's current
political drama. Should the vote fail, Moldova
may see repeat parliamentary elections late in
2010, but we would also expect a heated debate
over changing the Constitution or the presidential
election rules. Lupu's feeling that Filat is not
really on his side was evident in comments about
the other Alliance leaders. Similarly, his
criticism of the Acting President's proposal to
adopt a new Constitution suggests ideological
differences between the two.

CHAUDHRY