EX-PRESIDENT LUCINSCHI THINKS COMMUNISTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CHISINAU 000084

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR MD
SUBJECT: EX-PRESIDENT LUCINSCHI THINKS COMMUNISTS
WILL FAIL; CRITICIZES VORONIN'S "POLICE STATE"

Classified By: Ambassador Asif J. Chaudhry for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: In two meetings with Ambassador
focused predominantly on Moldova's upcoming
elections (Nov 14 and Feb 3),former President
Petru Lucinschi was highly critical of President
Voronin's regime (which he termed a "police
state") and skeptical about the Party of
Communists'(PCRM) prospects for success. He
suggested that the current Communist-led
government did not want to give up power under any
circumstances and would struggle fiercely to
retain its majority in the Parliament. Lucinschi
believed that the non-Communist opposition parties
would control the future Parliament, and that a
post-electoral coalition would emerge involving
Urechean, Filat, Ghimpu and Diacov. However, he
projected a possible scenario in which neither
side could elect the president and an opposition-
controlled Parliament might propose a referendum
on switching to direct popular vote. End Summary.

Lucinschi Skeptical about PCRM Showing in
Elections
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-


2. (C) Over the course of two meetings with
Ambassador (November 14 and February 3),Moldova's
former President Petru Lucinschi expressed his
doubts about the ability of the Party of
Communists (PCRM) to win control of the Parliament
in the upcoming April 5 elections. He speculated
on the extent to which the population would vote
for the Communists, saying that even those serving
in the security services claimed they would not
support the PCRM.


3. (C) Lucinschi cited a recent survey showing
that the PCRM enjoyed a rating of only 20 percent.
Even hypothesizing that the Communists receive 25
or even 30 percent of the vote, at best the PCRM
would gain some 40-45 seats in the Parliament
(after seats were redistributed to account for
votes for parties that had not crossed the
threshold) and 55-60 seats for the other parties.
Lucinschi believed that the Communist leadership
already understood that the PCRM could not win a
majority and would need allies to form a
coalition.

Lucinschi Critical of Voronin's "Police State"
--------------


4. (C) Lucinschi criticized Voronin, charging that
since 2001 he had created a police state with a
military-backed system of informers. People were
frightened by the authorities and willing to
report, he said. Lucinschi said the GOM was
counting on keeping this situation hush-hush, but
since many people had personally suffered at the
hands of the regime, and the number whose brothers
and sons had suffered was rising,
many people were now aware of how the system
worked. Lucinschi claimed that there was fear
among the people; they were afraid of expressing
their opinions, lowered their voices and suspected
that their phones were tapped.


5. (C) Lucinschi was critical of the judicial
system, citing "telephone justice," i.e., a system
in which judges are called and instructed what to
do. He told the story of a friend in the
construction business who had judges and
prosecutors come to him to buy apartments bringing
suitcases filled with money.

Who Will Form the Majority Coalition?
--------------


6. (C) Lucinschi said that the Communists were
aware that many people were not satisfied, but
still expected to keep power by forming a
coalition. However, he thought, and that a 50-50
split might result, preventing either side from
making a coalition. Lucinschi believed that
despite their incompatibilities, the opposition
parties would ally against the Communists. All of
them -- Urechean, Filat, Ghimpu, and Diacov -- had

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suffered from the Communists, and thus, despite
their differences would form an alliance.


7. (C) Lucinschi speculated on which parties would
clear the threshold, mentioning Urechean's AMN
(though now weaker than before),Filat's Liberal
Democrats (very active now) and maybe Chirtoaca's
Liberal Party. However, he thought it likely that
three parties might not be able to form a
majority. He noted that prospects for Iurie
Rosca's PPCD were questionable as he had lost much
support. Lucinschi viewed Braghis's Social
Democratic Party as an ally of the Communists,
charging that the Communists were financing
Braghis's campaign. He shared a story about a
businessman called into PCRM headquarters and told
to run for Parliament, but on Braghis's list.


8. (C) Lucinschi had words of praise for Diacov's
Democratic Party as an option for voters who could
not stand either the Communists, or the
"nationalist slogans" of the other parties.
(Note: Luchinschi's son Chiril recently announced
that he would run for Parliament on Diacov's list.
End note.) Diacov's party won third place in the
2007 elections with 9 percent of votes and could
pass the threshold, speculated Lucinschi,
garnering some 8-10 percent of the vote. Diacov
would definitely not ally with the Communists and
would thus help guarantee that the PCRM could not
make a majority. If so, the Communists would go
into opposition in the future Parliament, as they
had during the period when Lucinschi himself was
president.

Mass Media: Two Opposition TV Channels
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9. (C) Lucinschi said that only two opposition TV
channels now existed, PRO TV, which the GOM had
attempted unsuccessfully to close, and TV 7, which
was owned by his son Chiril. Though the younger
Lucinschi owned the station together with an
American company, the station depended financially
upon ads from Russian N TV; N TV had invited
Chiril Lucinschi to Moscow. Lucinschi speculated
Moscow might either try to seize TV 7 or force him
to sell it. Alternatively, Chiril might be asked
to refrain from participating in the elections.
The ex-president said he had already advised his
son not to withdraw, now that he had publicly
declared his intention to run for office.

Widening the Playing Field of Political Parties
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10. (C) Whereas earlier it appeared that the GOM
was trying to deny registration to several
opposition parties, Lucinschi suggested that the
Communists had chosen a new tactic on party
registration. Though the Ministry of Justice had
initially re-registered only 12 of the 28 parties
that had applied, on February 2 the Central
Election Commission (CEC) announced that all 28
parties were approved for participation in the
elections. Lucinschi speculated that the GOM had
decided to let as many parties as possible
participate in order to divide the opposition
vote.


11. (C) Lucinschi speculated that the six percent
threshold might be the PCRM's undoing as fewer
parties would make it into the Parliament. If the
Communists plus their immediate allies did not
have enough votes to form a coalition, they would
have to win support from (in other words, bribe,
he explained) some other MPs. But, as a result of
the threshold the PCRM would have fewer small
parties to approach as possible allies.

Perhaps No Side Strong Enough to Elect President
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12. (C) Lucinschi speculated that the elections
might yield a Parliament without any majority
strong enough to elect a president. In this
scenario Parliament might propose to have the
president elected by popular vote. Lucinschi
claimed that Filat, Urechean and Diacov supported
returning to the previous system of direct

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presidential election. A referendum would allow
the people to decide the question of amending the
constitution to allow for popular election of the
president. Holding a popular referendum could be
decided with a simple majority in Parliament.


13. (C) Lucinschi claimed that surveys showed that
85 percent of the population would favor a direct
popular vote of the president, and that key party
leaders were also in favor. Lucinschi believed
that a united opposition would have enough support
from the population for an opposition candidate to
be elected in a popular vote.

Who Might be the Presidential Candidate?
--------------


14. (C) Asked about possible presidential
candidates, Lucinschi suggested three names --
President of the Academy of Sciences Gheorghe Duca
(currently not a member of any party; had
previously been with the Democratic Party but
could enjoy support from PCRM),Foreign Minister
Stratan (both opposition and PCRM could support;
not a member of any party, or former Minister of
Foreign Affairs Popov (was Ambassador to France,
and to Belgium; now works in Romania with Lukoil;
people don't support him because he is not in
country, but he could be a good compromise
candidate.)


15. (C) Lucinschi thought that Lupu could be a
good PCRM candidate but suggested that Voronin
would not support him. Though the Communist
electorate might not vote for Lupu, he could not
be excluded as he was well prepared and a good
canpaigner. Lucinschi dismissed Greceanii's
presidential prospects, saying that she was a
"nice lady," but just as she had appeared from
nowhere, she would go nowhere.

Comment
--------------


16. (C) While Lucinschi is one of Moldova's most
knowledgeable interlocutors, he has his own axes
to grind, and many of his comments appear to
reflect both wishful thinking and self-promotion.
We think he is likely under-estimating the
Communists' electoral support and over-estimating
the ability of opposition party leaders to work in
coalition. Lucinschi was elected by direct
popular vote in 1996. His presidency was marked by
his own power struggle with the Parliament which
resulted in then Speaker Diacov's introducing
legislation to weaken Lucinschi by transforming
the country into a parliamentary republic and
changing the presidential election from a popular
to a parliamentary vote. Since then, Lucinschi
has wished to see popular presidential elections
restored. However, any attempt to change systems
after the elections could result in months of
chaos.

CHAUDHRY