DPM DODON BELIEVES COMMUNISTS SHOULD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000700

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PINR MD
SUBJECT: DPM DODON BELIEVES COMMUNISTS SHOULD
GIVE EIGHT VOTES TO LUPU

Classified by: Ambassador Asif J. Chaudhry for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Ref (A): Chisinau 643


1. (C) Summary: In a September 3 meeting, Deputy
Prime Minister Dodon told the Ambassador that he
believes the Communist Party (PCRM) should give
the eight votes necessary to elect Alliance for
European Integration (AIE) candidate Marian Lupu
as President. However, he said, President Voronin
remained stubbornly opposed to supporting Lupu.
Dodon noted, however, that Voronin had appeared
subdued and humbled over the past week, and said
he believed that the Acting President would step
down on September 14 and could leave the political
scene altogether. Dodon confirmed that there were
some 9-10 Communist MPs who believed it better for
the PCRM to vote for Lupu, but he appeared unsure
whether this group would break from the party to
do so. End Summary.

Dodon Believes PCRM Should Give Votes to Lupu
--------------


2. (C) In a September 3 meeting, Deputy Prime
Minister Igor Dodon told the Ambassador that he
thinks the Party of Communists should give the
necessary eight votes to allow Marian Lupu to be
elected as President. However, he indicated,
pointing ominously at the picture of Voronin on
the wall, that the Acting President was dead set
against voting for Lupu and would prefer to go to
new elections in 2010. Dodon, however, predicted
that the Communists would likely win no more than
30 seats in a repeat vote, and hence repeat
elections were not in their favor.


3. (C) Dodon said that there were about 9-10 PCRM
MPs who also thought that it would be better to
vote for Lupu and go into opposition. These
included Prime Minister Greceanii, Presidential
Advisor Mark Tkaciuk, and former Deputy Speaker
Gregori Petrenco. Despite Voronin's opposition,
Dodon said that there has been some talk among
certain MPs of the need for flexibility on the
eight votes.

The Emperor Has No Clothes
--------------


4. (C) Dodon noted that at the PCRM Central
Committee meeting a few days earlier, Voronin had
asked the assembled group about the public mood in
the country. In what Dodon called "typical"
fashion, one by one the members of Voronin's inner
circle stood up and told him that the people
believed the Communists should stay strong and
stand firm in refusing to compromise with the
Alliance.


5. (C) Dodon told the Ambassador that when his
turn came, he told Voronin directly that people
were saying that the PCRM was in a weak position.
According to Dodon, he said people were wondering
how the GoM could let the violence happen on April
7, despite their control of the mass media, police
and military. He said he also told Voronin that
people saw the PCRM's inability to elect a
President as the biggest sign of weakness -- when
the Communists had 60 seats (after the April
election),they could not even muster one
additional vote (needed to elect the President).
Dodon said he told the President that it was now
necessary to do something to change that public
perception of weakness. As soon as the session
ended, he said, several of those who had praised
Voronin to his face came over to congratulate
Dodon for his frankness.

Voronin and Russia Fear Ghimpu's Pro-Romanian
Stance
-------------- --------------
--


6. (C) Dodon told the Ambassador that both Voronin
and the Russians have been spooked by Liberal
Party leader Ghimpu's election as Speaker, and
feared his pro-Romanian, anti-Russian orientation.
The Ambassador asked why, if the Communists feared

CHISINAU 00000700 002 OF 002


Ghimpu (who is set to become acting President
when, as expected, Voronin steps down),they would
not vote for former-Communist Lupu for President.
Dodon agreed, and repeated his position that he
personally favored having the Communists vote for
Lupu.


7. (C) Dodon also said that Voronin was blaming
Romania and the USG for PCRM's current situation.
Though Dodon believed Tkaciuk actually understood
that the U.S. was neutral, no one had been able to
convince Voronin of American neutrality.

Voronin and Government Leaving the Political Scene
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Dodon also noted that over the last week
Voronin had seemed subdued and even humbled.
Dodon believed there was a very good possibility
that Voronin may leave the political scene. He
stated that on the September 14 deadline (for new
MPs to decide whether to remain in Parliament or
retain their GoM seats),five Ministers would
resign in order to keep their seats in Parliament.
These MPs included Prime Minister Greceanii.
According to Dodon, Voronin would issue a decree
firing the rest of the Cabinet, and had already
announced that he too would step down.

New Party Picture once Voronin Steps Down?
--------------


9. (C) Dodon suggested that once Voronin leaves,
the more moderate group could take control of the
party. However, he was unsure how likely this was
to happen. Dodon said that the key stumbling
block lay with Mark Tkaciuk. Tkaciuk, who retains
considerable influence within the party, remained
close to Voronin and would stay with him "until
the end."

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Dodon believes that the PCRM would be
better off giving the eight votes to Lupu, as they
will likely get even fewer seats should repeat
elections take place next year. He understands
that the party's own interests are now held
hostage to Voronin's wishes and would like to see
the party take a different tack. He acknowledged
that the politics within the party could shift if
Voronin steps down and leaves politics. However,
it appears that Dodon lacks either the resolve or
the horsepower to lead a split. While he is a key
player in the inner circle, Dodon is not actually
a party member. Nonetheless, we cannot rule out
a rapidly shifting set of calculations within the
PCRM once Voronin steps down from the Presidency.
With the "Old Man" gone, the new voices may be
able to convince others that it is actually in the
Party's interest to vote for Lupu and avoid repeat
elections. In earlier reporting (Ref A),Dodon
had indicated that some of the younger reformers
were considering making a break to do so.

CHAUDHRY