ALLIANCE ELECTS SPEAKER, BUT WHAT'S NEXT?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CHISINAU 000671

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PINR MD
SUBJECT: ALLIANCE ELECTS SPEAKER, BUT WHAT'S NEXT?

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Classified by: Charge d'Affaires Marcus Micheli
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

REF: (A) Chisinau 659; (B) Chisinau 626; (C)
Chisinau 659


1. (C) Summary: In decisive move that stunned
many observers, on August 28 the four-party
Alliance for European Integration (AIE) elected
Liberal Party (PL) leader Mihai Ghimpu as Speaker
in a rump session that continued after the
Communist Party (PCRM) adjourned the Parliament's
opening meeting (septel). Having passed this
initial test of cohesion with flying colors, AIE
leaders now face the difficult task of securing
the eight votes necessary to elect their
candidate, Democratic Party (DL) leader Marian
Lupu, as President. The PCRM has dangled the
possibility of providing the votes, but likely
will demand major concessions and has declared it
will not support Lupu. A schism within the PCRM
or an Alliance-PCRM compromise on a non-party
candidate could offer a way out, but should the
Alliance fail, Moldova faces political deadlock
and repeat elections in 2010. End Summary.

Alliance Passes First Test
--------------


2. (C) Although the AIE originally agreed to
propose Liberal Democratic Party (PLDM) leader
Vlad Filat as Speaker and Lupu as President,
Alliance cohesion was seriously threatened during
the last week when Lupu, concerned that the PCRM
would oppose his candidacy, demanded to be
Speaker. (Note: The Alliance's 53 parliamentary
seats are enough to elect the Speaker, but are
eight votes short of the 61 needed to elect the
President.) The AIE's four leaders met daily over
the past several days in an effort to resolve the
impasse; in a session that lasted until past
midnight on August 27, both Lupu and Filat agreed
to cede the Speaker position to Ghimpu. Under the
terms of the new deal, Lupu will remain the
Alliance's presidential candidate, while Filat
will be their proposed Prime Minister.

Presidential Election: Getting to 61
--------------


3. (C) Ghimpu's August 28 election as Speaker
(septel) demonstrated a decisive and dramatic show
of Alliance unity. But attention now turns to the
difficult task of electing the President. One
possibility is that the Alliance, with its
momentum-changing victory, will succeed in
prompting a group of younger PCRM MPs to break
with the party. Working against such a scenario,
however, is the strong tradition of discipline and
hierarchy within the PCRM.


4. (C) Perhaps more likely is a scenario in which
the PCRM opts to "give" eight votes to the
Alliance candidate. There is reportedly an on-
going debate within the PCRM between a younger,
reformist wing and the hardliners (ref A). The
"reformers," associated with Voronin advisor Mark
Tkaciuk, appear more inclined to compromise with
the Alliance and move into the opposition (letting
the Alliance take the blame for Moldova's
deteriorating economy). The hard-liners,
associated with former Deputy Speaker Vladimir
Turcan, have been hoping that lingering mistrust
between non-Communist leaders will splinter the
Alliance, leading to the creation of a PCRM-
controlled "Left-Center Coalition."


5. (C) The Alliance's decisive show of unity may
help the "reformers" win the argument within the
PCRM. If so, the PCRM will doubt seek to extract
a steep price, likely involving immunity
guarantees for Voronin, his family and some top
officials of his inner circle as well as
"acceptable" nominations for certain key power
positions within the GoM.


6. (C) In order to push the PCRM towards a
compromise, the Alliance also may postpone a
presidential vote and instead begin an aggressive
program of personnel changes and reform
legislation. If the Alliance continues to

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demonstrate convincing solidarity and begins to
threaten key PCRM interests (particularly in
business),it is possible that the party will see
the handwriting on the wall and make the jump to
cooperate.

Presidential Elections: Changing Horses Mid-Stream
-------------- --------------


7. (C) While the Alliance has privately and
publicly committed to nominating Lupu as its
candidate for President. But the PCRM also has
publicly vowed to oppose Lupu; should the
Communists dig in their heels and reject Lupu in a
first round of voting, the Alliance could still
compromise with the PCRM and nominate a non-party
candidate for a second round. One possibility is
Ion Sturza (ref C). Filat, who is known to be
close to Sturza, might propose this variant;
however, Lupu, who would be the odd man out, would
presumably do everything possible to prevent this
outcome.


8. (C) Therefore, while Filat and the PCRM could,
theoretically, elect Sturza President, such a
scenario would collapse of the Alliance, and
literally hand power back to the PCRM. Or
alternatively, in a highly unlikely but
theoretically possible scenario, if Lupu and Filat
clashed over Filat seeking to ditch him for
Sturza, Lupu could throw in his lot again with the
PCRM. This would only happen with the high cost
of being labeled a double traitor, and might
require that Urechean jumped ship with him,
because Lupu's defection would split the
Democratic Party.

Possibility of Deadlock and 2010 Elections
--------------


9. (C) Balancing out these various scenarios for
electing a president is the persistent possibility
that both sides will refuse to engage in
meaningful dialogue, and the PCRM will refuse to
cooperate. Two failed votes for President would
require repeat parliamentary elections in 2010.
However, both sides recognize that prolonged
political crisis is not in Moldova's interests.
On the PCRM side, Voronin and Tkaciuk have made
public statements recently about the need to avoid
repeat elections. The Alliance-controlled
Parliament also will try to avoid this scenario by
not rushing into Presidential elections until
after they have aggressively worked to use
legislative power to dismantle Communist power
structures and patronage structures.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Jubilant after electing a speaker, the
Alliance appeared to have learned the lesson that
preserving cohesion in order to form a government
is more important than who gets which post.
Having passed this first test, the prognosis for
group cohesive seems stronger than it was just a
few days ago when still in crisis. If the
Alliance succeeds in declaring the Presidential
slot vacant (which they will attempt),as Speaker
would be Acting President until the election of a
new Head of State.


11. (C) Though Alliance boldly seized the
initiative during the opening session of
Parliament, it is clear that a rocky road lies
ahead. While Voronin had appeared to be in denial
about the implications of the new structure, the
Parliament's ability to elect a Speaker while the
PCRM deputies were absent, may convince him that
the tables have turned. It is possible that the
PCRM may try to challenge the legality of the
Parliament's decisions or use their control of
other state organs of power to erect other
barriers. However, it is clear that August 28,
2009, will go down in Moldova's history as
momentous day. Just one day after celebrating the
country's 18th anniversary of independence, a non-
Communist coalition took control of the
Parliament, advocating for free media, a
functioning justice system and a full slate of
democratic reforms. While the final outcome of

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the Alliance's effort to form a government is not
yet clear, the transition of legislative power is
already a victory for the democratic process.

MICHELI