DID LUPU GO TO MOSCOW? IF SO, WHY?

S E C R E T CHISINAU 000644

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

/// C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - PARA RENUMBERED///

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PINR MD
SUBJECT: DID LUPU GO TO MOSCOW? IF SO, WHY?

Classified by: Ambassador Asif J. Chaudhry for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (S) Summary: On August 12 Marian Lupu publicly
denied a news item claiming that he had traveled
to Moscow the previous day, saying he had been in
Budapest. However, in an August 13 meeting,
Marian Lupu (strictly protect) confided to the
Ambassador that he had indeed been in Moscow. He
claimed to have gone for personal family reasons,
but that once in Moscow he was "invited" to a
meeting with two interlocutors he said he would
prefer not to name. In what Lupu described as
something akin to a "job interview" or an in-depth
political and psychological assessment, Lupu was
asked a series of questions to determine his
positions on issues such as immunity for Voronin,
Moldova's neutrality and Russian-language schools
in Moldova. Lupu also told the Ambassador about
problems in the coalition, particularly the lack
of trust between Filat and Lupu. End Summary.

Did Lupu Go to Moscow? He claimed Budapest
--------------


2. (C) On August 12, a news item appeared in the
local news service, Unimedia, claiming that former
Speaker and Democratic Party leader Marian Lupu
had traveled to Moscow the previous day (August
11) and showing a picture of him at an airport
counter. Contacted by Unimedia, Lupu denied
rumors he traveled to Moscow, saying he had been
in Budapest. Later that day PLDM leader Vlad
Filat told the Ambassador that he had personally
asked Lupu whether he went to Moscow, and Lupu had
responded that he went to Budapest. Filat
appeared visibly concerned, and told the
Ambassador that he was worried and did not trust
Lupu.


3. (C) On the morning of August 13, the Ambassador
met with Foreign Minister Andrei Stratan. Stratan
discussed post-elections politics, warning that we
should be prepared for "a surprising new
scenario." He said that Voronin would not give up
power and that the Russians would not want him to.
Stratan confided that there were discussions
already going on between the two sides. When
asked about Lupu, Stratan said he believed that
Lupu had gone to Budapest and met with the
Russians there. However, Stratan suggested that
Mark Tkaciuk had been to Moscow on either the 11th
or 12th.

Lupu Confirms Moscow Trip, Asked Many Questions
-------------- --


4. (S) In a highly confidential conversation
August 13, Marian Lupu (strictly protect) confided
to the Ambassador that he actually had gone to
Moscow (he added that he had transited through
Budapest, so had told the truth when he said he
had been to that city). He claimed to have been
in Russia for personal reasons related to his
father's health (his father had prostate cancer
and was now weaker after an operation in Moscow),
but confirmed that once in Moscow he was invited
to "a meeting." Lupu would not say who he met
with (only that there were two interlocutors),but
said it was a two-hour meeting at a hotel, i.e. a
somewhat clandestine meeting, rather than an open
one in a ministry.


5. (S) Lupu said he felt the meeting was either a
psychological exam or a detailed interview. He
was asked a series of questions about topics such
as relations with Romania, his statements about
balancing relations between East and West and his
opinions about his coalition partners. Lupu said
he also was asked about whether he would give
immunity to Voronin and immunity to Voronin's
family members, to which he had responded that he
would. The interlocutors asked Lupu about
Russian-language schools in Moldova, and Lupu's
thinking on Moldovan neutrality.


6. (S) Lupu felt some questions were designed to
probe his responses. For example, his
interlocutors asked Lupu when he had last met with
Acting President Voronin's advisor Mark Tcaciuk,
to which he responded late-May or early-June, but


he remained puzzled by the question. Lupu said
they also asked if he knew why Filat was trying to
contact them. As Lupu thought this might be a
provocation to test whether Lupu would speak
against his coalition partner, he said he had
remained neutral and said he had no idea why Filat
might be trying to contact them.


7. (S) Lupu said that the Russians had asked about
the possibility of a coalition with the PCRM. He
said they had not told him he should make a
coalition, but merely asked. Lupu told the
Ambassador that he had responded that coalition
talks were going on right now, and thus dodged the
question; the Russians never returned to it.
Finally the Russians asked him if there was
anything they could do, to which Lupu had
responded that that they could tell Voronin to
give eight PCRM votes in parliament to make sure
there was no extended political crisis in Moldova.
Lupu said that his interlocutors made no small
talk. They launched into their questioning
suddenly, asked their questions for two hours, and
then stopped.

Lupu Concerned about Lack of Trust
--------------


8. (C) Turning to Moldovan internal politics, Lupu
told the Ambassador that he was troubled by a
serious problem within the coalition. Though the
group was still moving in the same direction, Lupu
was concerned that his coalition partners,
particularly Filat did not trust him. Lupu
believed that Filat thought he was obsessed with
being President, and said he was so sick of it
that sometimes he considered just waiting four
more years and offering the Presidential position
to Filat and volunteering himself to be the
Speaker of the Parliament. The Ambassador noted
that a coalition has to be built on trust.
Though the USG had refrained from becoming a
mediator in the negotiations, the Ambassador
suggested that the two leaders needed to find a
way to build trust or else the success of the
coalition could be endangered.


9. (C) Lupu said that the lack of trust was so
bad that he was concerned Filat was plotting
against him, possibly in a scenario involving
former Prime Minister Ion Sturza. Lupu believed
Filat wanted to get himself elected for Speaker
but that if Lupu did not gain the necessary 61
votes in the first round, Filat would propose
Sturza for president.


10. (S) The Ambassador asked about relations with
First Deputy Prime Minister and PCRM MP Igor
Dodon. Lupu responded that Dodon was trying to
get the Lupu group to join the PCRM in a
coalition. Asked whether Lupu would consider that
option, he responded most emphatically that at
this point he would not. Lupu said that Dodon was
still young and was looking for a scenario in
which he could promote himself.

Comment
--------------


11. (S) The Ambassador has developed an excellent
working relationship with Lupu, who has been
surprisingly open with us about his political
concerns. There is press speculation about why
Lupu would have gone to Moscow, and innuendo that
that the Russians are pushing him to join up in
coalition with the PCRM. However, Lupu's own
story suggests that this is not the case (as he
told it, it appeared that the Russians were trying
to assess what it would mean for politics in
Moldova if Lupu were to succeed in becoming
President). In the meantime, for the coalition to
succeed in working together, it will be necessary
for Filat and Lupu to move beyond their mistrust
for each other and learn to work as part of the
same team.

CHAUDHRY