OPPOSITION WORKING TO FORM RULING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CHISINAU 000623

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM MD
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION WORKING TO FORM RULING
COALITION

REF A: Chisinau 595

Classified by: Ambassador Asif J. Chaudhry for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

REF A: Chisinau 595; REF B: Chisinau 614


1. (C) Summary: In the first full week since the
July 29 elections, the four non-communist party
leaders have met almost daily to work on reaching
a coalition agreement. Though they immediately
agreed in principle on the need to work together,
one week later they were still hashing out the
details of who will serve in which position. On
August 7, we heard that at the previous day's
meeting the group had started to reach a broad
understanding, most likely to nominate Filat for
Speaker and Lupu for President, letting the
Liberal Party suggest the person of their choice
as Prime Minister. Meanwhile, the Party of
Communists (PCRM) Central Committee was scheduled
to meet on August 7 in order to determine their
course of action. We have heard that they might
designate eight PCRM members to vote for the
opposition Presidential candidate, possibly
allowing a new government to be formed without
delay, and without requiring repeat elections in

2010.


2. (C) During this week following the elections,
the Ambassador met separately with each of the
non-Communist party leaders in order to discuss
their plans to assume leadership in Moldova. He
has similarly met with President Voronin for the
PCRM view (REF B),and Deputy Prime Minister Dodon
to hear from the GOM. End Summary.

Opposition Agrees on Coalition, Working on Details
-------------- --------------


3. (C) In a July 31 meeting with the Ambassador,
Liberal Party leaders Mihai Ghimpu and Dorin
Chirtoaca confirmed that the four non-Communist
party leaders (Filat, Ghimpu, Lupu and Urechean)
had their first group meeting on July 31 at 1:00
P.M., and come to an agreement on setting up a
coalition. The four had started discussions, but
had not yet come to any final agreements on how
the coalition would work. They had agreed to keep
coalition negotiations quiet and not make any
public announcements until after the details had
been ironed out. Ghimpu said that they had agreed
that the four leaders would make all decisions on
an equal basis, and that no one of them would
function as a chairman. Ghimpu said that the
group had discussed their various options, and had
agreed that each would try to see if there were
any votes they could win from the Communists.
They also agreed to check the Constitution and
study the terms of the laws that governed the
upcoming events. As the details of the coalition
agreement could not be finalized at that meeting,
the four had agreed to meet again on August 2.


4. (C) On the morning of August 3, Democratic
Party leader Marian Lupu told the Ambassador that
the group of four party leaders had met a second
time August 2, and still failed to come to an
agreement on the specifics. A big part of their
second meeting centered on the principles of the
coalition, he said, but a lot of time was wasted
on arguing about the electoral results, trying to
determine which party had taken away the other
party's votes. It was evident that there was
broad agreement on the need to work together, but
that there were still significant disagreements
within the group. The group had agreed to meet
again on August 3, as they were hoping to iron out
the remaining issues and be able to go public
soon.

Group Agrees on Principles but not yet on
Positions
-------------- --------------
-


5. (C) According to Lupu, it was clear by the end
of the August 2 meeting, that any general
agreement on principles would have to be made more
concrete by coming to an agreement on positions.

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Although Filat and Lupu were already in
competition for the Speaker position, Lupu said it
was obvious that Ghimpu also wanted to be Speaker.
Filat told the Ambassador that he would absolutely
not agree to have Ghimpu as Speaker.
Additionally, Filat thought that Ghimpu was
becoming a problem for the group, hindering their
ability to come to specific agreement on
positions. By the end of the week however, both
Lupu and Urechean told us they had increased
respect for Ghimpu for taking a principled stand
and sticking to his principles.


6. (C) Lupu said (on Aug 3) that there was a
consensus among the other three (Lupu, Urechean
and Ghimpu) that Filat would be the best Prime
Minister. Lupu noted, however, that Filat had not
said anything to the group about whether he wanted
this position. Filat had already told the
Ambassador he does not want to be the Prime
Minister, as the PM would be blamed for the
intractable economic situation, and could be
removed at will by the President. The Ambassador
shared with Lupu Filat's opinion that the two
(Filat and Lupu) should work together to support
each other. Lupu then wondered what Ghimpu would
get if Filat became Speaker (since no one viewed
Ghimpu as a competent contender for the Prime
Minister position). Lupu understood the need to
cooperate with Filat because of their numerical
weaknesses and the need to work together to win
some PCRM support.


7. (C) Lupu suggested to the Ambassador a possible
scenario in which the opposition would start out
by electing him (Lupu) as Speaker and Filat as
Deputy Speaker. That would allow Lupu to chair
the legislature during the critical presidential
elections, and if Lupu succeeded in becoming
President, Filat would become the Speaker. Lupu
acknowledged that the group of four was shaky and
could fall apart, but whoever was Speaker would
have that position locked in. Filat did not agree
with that scenario, and wanted to be elected
directly as Speaker himself. There was clearly
distrust between Lupu and Filat over this
question. When Filat called a press conference on
August 5, Lupu feared Filat intended to go public
on this question (but Filat did not).


8. (C) Urechean told the Ambassador on August 4
that the biggest problem within the Group of Four
was personal egos, particularly competition
between Filat and Lupu, as both wanted to be
Speaker of Parliament and President of the
country. Urechean thought that it might be better
to elect Lupu as Speaker first, as it would be
harder for Filat to win the over the eight PCRM
votes needed to elect the President. Although
Urechean indicated his willingness to serve in any
of the three key posts, he also said that for the
sake of reconciliation between the two bigger egos
(Filat and Lupu),he personally was willing to
step aside and forego the key posts.

The Four have Doubts about Each Other
--------------


9. (C) Although the four party leaders clearly
understand the need to work together in order to
establish a non-Communist government in Moldova,
it is evident that the four started out with a
level of mistrust and doubt that they needed to
overcome. Filat said he had doubts about Lupu,
and was still trying to figure out if he was
sincere. Meanwhile Lupu also expressed his own
doubts about Filat, telling the Ambassador that
the fact that Filat had not said openly that he
wanted to be Speaker created some doubts in his
mind that Filat might be negotiating with the
Communists. Filat also noted his concerns about
working with Ghimpu.


10. (C) Both Ghimpu and Lupu suggested that one
weak point of the coalition might be Dumitru
Diacov, former head of the Democratic Party (who
had stepped aside to offer the leadership position
to Lupu). Ghimpu noted that the opposition's
biggest weakness was the narrowness of their
majority, which could easily be destroyed if

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Diacov were to defect to the PCRM and take 3 MPs
with him.


11. (C) Lupu was painfully aware of the fact that
the PCRM could destroy the opposition
parliamentary majority of 53 (out of 101),by
winning 4 votes away from the coalition to add to
the Communists' 48 seats. After some initial
doubts about Diacov, Lupu said on August 3 that he
had become more confident about his own party's
ability to stand together and resist any Communist
pressures. There were two members of the party
he had initially doubted, but after talking to
them, Lupu said he now feels more confident about
their solidarity.


12. (C) Although the Group of Four was plagued by
doubts and competition during their first week of
negotiations, on August 7 Filat told the
Ambassador that they were now moving in the right
direction. For the first time in several
meetings, he now seemed to be in an optimistic
mood. Lupu too, said on August 7 that things were
going much better and that the group was nearing
the end of their negotiations. He said that the
group would meet again in the evening of August 7
at 8:00 P.M., and hopefully finalize their
coalition plan.

Clock Ticking; Agreements Needed to Move Forward
-------------- ---


13. (C) On August 6, as required by law, the
Central Election Committee submitted to the
Constitutional Court the official results on the
outcome of the parliamentary elections for the
court to confirm the results and validate the MP
mandates. According to Article 89 of the
Electoral Code, the Constitutional Court then has
a period of up to ten days to confirm the
lawfulness of the elections and validate the list
of MPs. The Constitutional Court has set August
14 as the date for their meeting. Once the
results are confirmed and the mandates validated,
then the parliament may convene at any point, but
must convene within thirty days of the elections,
i.e. by August 28.


14. (C) We can thus expect the Parliament's
opening session at some point during the period
from August 17-28, with election of the Speaker
likely to happen on the first day, and the
parliamentary vote on the President soon
afterwards. (After the Parliamentary Committee
for Election of a President is named and
nominations made, there is a five-day period, and
then a session where the candidates speak before
the voting takes place.) The four non-Communist
party leaders have already told us that after the
speaker is elected (and most likely before the
presidential election) they will carry out a
series of personnel changes, removing the
Prosecutor General, head of Teleradio Moldova,
Security Services and other key positions.

Communists May Concede Control
--------------


15. (C) A meeting of the Central Committee of the
Party of Communists has been called for August 7
to discuss PCRM options and determine its
strategy. Deputy Prime Minister Dodon told the
Ambassador that this meeting would discuss a plan
for the PCRM to delegate eight deputies to vote
for the presidential candidate nominated by the
four-party coalition and cede control to the other
side. This would put the parties that were
formerly in opposition in charge of leading the
country through the difficult period of economic
crisis that lies ahead. The four leaders met
August 6 with outgoing IMF Country Director Johann
Mathieson to hear a sobering expert assessment of
the true state of Moldova's economy.

Comment
--------------


16. (C) Although the four non-communist party
leaders realize the necessity of working with each
other to create a functioning coalition, at this

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point they still harbor some doubts about each
other. There are competing egos, and conflicting
desires to occupy the same positions. With the
passage of time during this past week, they seem
to be coming to a better working relationship and
a better understanding of the fact that united
they stand, divided they all fall. The Communists
meanwhile, seem to have come to grips with the
fact that they simply do not have the numbers to
elect their own president. As the PCRM goes into
opposition, the Communists have two possible
choices -- they could block the election of a
president, and keep Moldova in electoral crisis
until 2010 -- or by becoming "responsible
opposition" and permitting the election of a
president, they cede the responsibilities of
guiding the country through economic crisis to the
other side. Having already made their fortunes
during eight years of power, they can afford to
sit back, work on party development and allow the
other parties to stumble through the challenges of
confronting the tough economic issues.

CHAUDHRY