MOLDOVA CIVICS 101: WHAT YOU CAN DO WITH 53 MPs

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TAGS: PHUM PGOV KDEM MD
SUBJECT: MOLDOVA CIVICS 101: WHAT YOU CAN DO WITH 53 MPs


1. (SBU) Summary: While there is a great deal of
speculation about who might form a government in Moldova
following repeat parliamentary elections on July 29, facts,
in the form of numbers, remain stubborn things. Acting
President Voronin will remain in office until 61 (out of
101) MPs vote to replace him. With 53 seats, the four non-
Communist parties do not have the numbers, even though they
outnumber the "plurality-minority" Party of Communists, who
hold 48. The non-Communists can nominate a Speaker and
appoint a cabinet, but the present numbers are a recipe for
impasse. End summary.

Seats ShiftQBut No Rout of Communists
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2. (SBU) The election, while changing the PCRM from a
majority of 60 seats to its present 48, was not a rout. The
party's popular-vote share dropped only 4.7 percentage
points, from 49.5 to 44.8 percent. That loss translated
into the larger parliamentary drop because fewer "wasted"
votes were available for redistribution. (Note: In July 29
elections, 4.2 percent of the vote went to parties that
failed to reach the 5.0 percent threshold; on April 5, 15.2
percent of votes went to the losers. End note.) The three
opposition parties that won seats in April held a combined
total of 41 seats; in the latest Parliament, they hold 40.
The Democratic Party, under the new management of of former
Speaker and PCRM defector Marian Lupu, went from no seats in
April to 13 in July. That gives the non-PCRM parties a
majority of 53 seats.

SoQWhat Can 53 MPs Do?
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3. (SBU) They can do much of what a parliament does. If the
four opposition parties unite in a 53-seat bloc, they can
elect a Speaker, adopt and amend laws, dismiss ministers,
and return a vote of no confidence against the government.
However, until 61 MPs unite around a candidate, no President
can be elected, and Voronin will continue in office as
Acting President. Since only the President may nominate a
Prime Minister, and Parliament must approve the candidate
and his or her cabinet with a simple majority vote, we are
likely to reach an impasse, as Acting President Voronin
makes an unacceptable nomination to the 53 MPs who are not
allowed to make any nomination.

So, What Happens with an Impasse?
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4. (SBU) If the two sides decide to fight over the
nomination of a PM, and the process fails three times, the
President must dissolve Parliament and call for new
elections. It is unclear, as Moldova enters unchartered
constitutional waters, how to interpret the constitutional
clause that Parliament can be dissolved only once in a year
is that once in a calendar year, or does the year start from
another date, such as April 5 elections, or from the June 15
dissolution of Parliament?

So, Is Moldova Stuck?
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5. (SBU) Given the present numbers, and the declarations
from all opposition parties that they would not join an
alliance with the PCRM, Moldova does appear stuck. If eight
PCRP deputies defected, and they and the four opposition
parties can agree on a candidate, then Moldova will have a
president. We will report septel on scenarios in which the
human elementQalways a strong factor in the marketplace of
Moldovan politicsQmight find away to loose the surly bonds
of numbers.

CHAUDHRY