OPPOSITION HAS BIG PLANS TO LEAD MOLDOVA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CHISINAU 000595

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM MD
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION HAS BIG PLANS TO LEAD MOLDOVA
IN NEW DIRECTION -- BUT CAN THEY SUCCEED?

Classified by: Ambassador Asif J. Chaudhry for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The opposition plans to work
within its narrow parliamentary majority of 53
seats to elect the Speaker and then attempt to use
their legislative mandate to try to form a
government. Although Voronin would continue on as
Acting President, with the speaker in place
(possibly Filat),the opposition would then plan
to flex their muscles and use their parliamentary
control to appoint several key new positions, such
as Prosecutor General and Chairman of the
Constitutional Court. They believe that such
parliamentary appointments would send a powerful
signal to Voronin.


2. (C) Democratic Party (PD) leader Lupu and
Liberal Democratic Party (PLDM)leader Filat each
told Ambassador that they believe that as a result
of such dramatic steps, either Communist Party
(PCRM) members would defect to their coalition, or
Voronin himself would see the need to cooperate
with them and vote together on electing a new
President (most likely Lupu). Filat told
Ambassador that the opposition leaders planned a
July 31 meeting, during which he would propose
they sign a written "Charter of Unity." Lupu
however, expressed some doubts about the ability
of the parties to work together, given the number
of egos involved (especially Filat's). End
Summary.

Filat to lead a United Opposition
--------------


3. (C) Immediately following the July 29 repeat
Parliamentary elections, as the preliminary
results became known, Ambassador Chaudhry met on
July 30 with Democratic Party (PC) leader Marian
Lupu and Liberal Democratic Party (PLDM)leader
Vlad Filat to discuss electoral outcomes. Filat
confirmed that the four non-Communist parties who
would be represented in the new parliament, PDLM,
PL, AMN, and Lupu's PD, had already had contacts
among themselves. He said that the four would
meet on July 31 in order to decide what to do.
Filat said that he would propose that they agree
on concrete steps. Rather than vague statements
about cooperation, he would propose that they sign
a written "Charter of Unity," pledging that they
would work together and stay together. (NOTE: In
a meeting with Ambassador July 31, Liberal Party
leader Ghimpu confirmed that the four party
leaders had indeed met and agreed to work
together. He said that they would meet again on
August 2 to work on the details of their mutual
understanding, after which they would sign
something. Until they find a solution for the
problems of working together, they will not say
anything and these meetings will remain a secret
from the public. Ghimpu meeting to be reported
SEPTEL. END NOTE.)


4. (C) Filat (on July 30) claimed that Ghimpu had
already come to him acknowledging that since Filat
had won the strongest showing among the opposition
parties (with 18 seats),he should be the leader
of the opposition parties. Filat noted to
Ambassador that he admired Ghimpu for his
stubbornness as a man of his word who had not bent
on his promise to oppose the Communists, and hence
could be expected to fulfill this pledge of
support. This role as recognized "leader" of the
opposition troika could be presumed to mean that
Filat would be their chosen Speaker of Parliament.
Filat confirmed his interest in holding this
position.

Opposition Vision for Taking Power
--------------


5. (C) Filat said that the first step when the new
parliament met would be election of the Speaker.
Acknowledging his own interest in that position,
he went on to explain that once the Speaker was
elected, the opposition would propose a series of
sweeping personnel changes, using those positions
that are under control of the Parliament. Both
Lupu and Filat explained to Ambassador that such

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positions included the Prosecutor General, the
Chairman of the Constitutional Court, the head of
Teleradio Moldova as well as other posts. While
the head of Security Services (SIS) Artur
Resetnikov (Voronin's nephew by marriage) was not
appointed by the parliament, that body did have
the power to remove him. Firing such heads of
power organs would shake up the status quo and be
a prelude for more sweeping change.


6. (C) Lupu told Ambassador that after three or
four such personnel changes, this would put
pressure on Voronin and send a powerful signal to
Voronin that he needed to support the opposition
to elect the President. Filat said that he
assumed that once these personnel changes took
place, there would be members of the PCRM who
would leave the party to join them. However Lupu
mentioned to Ambassador that Voronin had purposely
stacked the PCRM list with members of the Old
Guard, who would not easily be pried loose.
Filat, on the other hand, was more convinced that
a certain number of Communists would indeed desert
their party. What would be most important, said
Filat, was to keep the legislative agenda under
control in such a way that the Communists could
not manipulate things.


7. (C) The opposition's ultimate scenario was to
put together a new government with Filat as
Speaker, Lupu as President, and a good solid
administrator as Prime Minister. They hoped to
create a strong, forward-leaning, modern team
capable of truly changing the direction of the
country. Acknowledging that the economic
situation in the country was very bad now, Filat
said that their challenge would be to find an
appropriate Prime Minister who could effectively
lead the country at a time like this.


8. (C) Filat was adamant that "it is time for a
change." However, he said that the new coalition
would look to the western forces to help them get
through the difficult times. He hoped he could
count on support from the United States and the
European Union in a substantive way that that this
fledgling project did not fail as a result of the
financial crisis.

Lupu Sees Possibility of Cooperation with
Communists
--------------


9. (C) Although Lupu was on board for Filat's
scenario of working with the opposition to elect a
speaker, his comments to Ambassador suggest that
he had not ruled out the possibility of
cooperation with the Communists. He suggested a
theoretical possibility of bringing the Communists
into the government, but not giving them any
position of authority. He was adamant that
Voronin must not be allowed to have any of the key
positions, either as Speaker, Prime Minister or
President, or any power ministries. In this
conversation, Lupu demonstrated more anger against
Voronin than he had at any prior meeting with
Ambassador.


10. (C) Lupu shared the vision of getting all four
non-Communist parties together. However, he
expressed some doubts about their ability to
manage the take at hand, demonstrating concerns
about the number of egos involved that could get
in the way. He was concerned in particular,
about Filat's ego, saying that now that he has the
largest opposition mandate, he sees himself as the
natural opposition leader.


11. (C) Lupu also said that he has doubts about
some members on his list. Out of the thirteen MPs
elected on his slate, there were four he was
uncertain about. There remained a possibility
that these individuals could give in to Communist
pressures and switch sides. Lupuhad mentioned
that he had heard from very reliabl sources that
Voronin had told one of his truste aides to offer
whatever had to be offered to Dicov to win the
support of the Democratic Party (ith or without
Lupu). This offer could even go o the extent of
offering the Presidency to Lupu. If so, the

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opposition could still lose its parliamentary
majority and its ability to select the Speaker.

Comment
--------------


12. (C) At this point the likely outcomes are
still very unclear. It is very possible that
quietly and democratically, Moldova is already in
the process of having its own color revolution.
If the opposition succeeds with its big plans, we
could see a renovated Moldova on the path to more
Western values, including democratic reforms, a
more just rule of law, and freedom of the media.
However, there are still some concrete obstacles
to this scenario for opposition power, and we are
somewhat skeptical about the ability of the
opposition to successfully implement their big
plans. First of all, this scenario depends upon
the ability of the four party leaders to work
together. Additionally, doubts remain about
whether the opposition could win over the
necessary PCRM votes to elect a President.
Without either several Communist defections or a
coalition agreement with the PCRM to elect a
President, the country would remain without a new
leader and with Voronin as Acting President until
new elections were called in 2010. The country
would thus continue in protracted leadership
crisis. It is most likely that the new parliament
will not meet until early September. Thus we
anticipate a hot summer period until then filled
with bargaining and horse trading, as both the
Communists and the opposition parties each seek to
win some support away from the other side. It is
a high stakes game, with Moldova's future on the
line.

CHAUDHRY