MOLDOVA ELECTIONS GIVE PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY TO

UNCLAS CHISINAU 000281

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM MD
SUBJECT: MOLDOVA ELECTIONS GIVE PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY TO
COMMUNISTS

Sensitive but Unclassified. Please Protect Accordingly.


1. (SBU) Summary: Parliamentary elections in Moldova have yielded a
bare majority nationwide for the Party of Communists (PCRM).
Depending upon the methodology used for calculating the distribution
of parliamentary seats, it appears that the PCRM has won 60-61 seats
of 101 in Parliament. With 61 seats the PCRM would narrowly achieve
the required three-fifths of Members of Parliament (MPs) needed to
elect a president. Three other parties reached the six percent
threshold for representation in Parliament: the Liberal Party (PL),
the Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova (PLDM),and the Moldova
Noastra Alliance (AMN). Nearly 400 OSCE/ODIHR observers and 14
Embassy monitoring teams reported that, despite a general
business-like attitude and normalcy in most polling stations, there
were also reports of distribution of favors by the PCRM, intimidated
voters, inaccurate voter lists, passive political-party
polling-station observers, and misuse of administrative resources.
End Summary.

Communists Win a Majority
--------------


2. (SBU) On Monday morning, Moldovans awoke to the news that the
PCRM would continue to rule as the dominant party for another four
years. With 97 percent of total votes counted, the PCRM has 49.94
percent of the vote, and thus apparently 60 seats and possibly the
61 seats in Parliament needed to select the President (and the
speaker of Parliament) without needing a coalition partner. It
appears that the Liberal Party (PL),with 12.75 percent of the vote,
will have 15 seats. The Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova (PLDM)
with 12.26 percent of the vote, will have 14 seats, and the Moldova
Noastra Alliance (AMN),with 9.82 percent of the vote, will have 11
seats. The question of opposition parties needing to coalesce is no
longer at issue as the Party of Communists predominates, though the
PCRM's majority is so tenuous, they will likely seek support from
MPs on opposition lists.


3. (SBU) Embassy observers, who travelled throughout the country on
Sunday to monitor the voting process in villages, observed a range
of problems. A common problem at polling stations country-wide was
inaccurate voter lists. Local authorities failed to verify that the
lists compiled at the national level were correct, resulting in
situations where high numbers of voters turned out, many of whom
were returned migrants, but were not on the list. Other lists were
inflated and had not been updated to account for deaths and
permanent changes of address. Another area of common concern was
the handling of the mobile ballot box. In one case, the mobile box
was brought to voters who had not requested it and did not intend to
vote. In other situations, applications for mobile voting came in
orally, and not in written format, making the legitimacy of the
requests difficult to verify. Different polling stations used
different interpretations of the rules regarding requests for mobile
ballots. Not all mobile boxes posed problems; many polling stations
took care to have party observers follow the mobile box and ensure
compliance.


4. (SBU) Also at issue was the opaque process of counting votes at
District Election Commissions (DEC),from where numbers were then
electronically transmitted to the Central Election Commission (CEC),
despite CEC promises to create the necessary transparency at all
levels. Observers at some DEC headquarters were not permitted to
watch as local-level votes were being entered into computers,
although the CEC had promised that such observation would be
allowed. These votes were not publicly posted at the DEC level in
many cases, though Post and international election observers had
asked the CEC to display these results at every level of the
process. Access to local level data at the district and national
levels was critical to ensure that all polling stations' data were
accurately reflected in the totals.


5. (SBU) There were isolated cases of intimidation on elections day,
some involving police presence. Observers noted in a few cases that
police had either blocked the entrance to the polling station or
were present inside while voting was taking place, a clear violation
of the regulations. Observers reported cases of voters who had
believed that hidden cameras would be placed in the booths, leaving
those voters with the perception that theirs was not a secret vote.
In one case an embassy observer reported a video camera mounted on a
tripod aimed right at the ballot box, creating an intimidating
effect, though officials assured the camera was not turned on.


6. (SBU) We heard reports of political-party voluQeer observers who
were threatened with job losses or unidentified consequences if they
showed up at polling stations on Sunday. In one village of 134
pensioner voters, it was reported that the PCRM told them to deliver
all 134 votes, or face the loss of their pensions. The Communists
offered not only threats but inducements. One embassy observer
noted Communist officials providing goodies in an "I voted

Communist" plastic shopping bag to voters as they exited church
services.

Problems for Corjova and Residents of Transnistria
-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) Transnistrian (TN) authorities prevented the holding of
elections in Corjova and blocked access for many Transnistrian
residents who wished to participate in the Moldovan elections. At
approximately 6:30 A.M. Transnistrian authorities blocked the roads
leading in and out of Corjova, and took up positions around the
building designated as a polling station. The election authorities
had arrived early to set up, and were inside the building. Several
hundred irregulars, belonging to the Transnistrian Cossack unit,
supported by other goons and toughs all wearing red and green
Transnistrian armbands, surrounded the building joined by TN
nationalists carrying signs, waving flags and chanting slogans. No
one wishing to vote would dare brave such a crowd. Transnistrian
militia carried away the polling box, and eventually the CEC
declared the polling station in Corjova to be officially closed.
Residents of Corjova were given permission to vote in the nearby
villages of Cocieri or Ustia.


8. (SBU) No polling stations were set up in areas controlled by the
Transnistrian authorities, but arrangements were made for residents
of Transnistria to vote at ten polling stations in GOM-controlled
villages. Those desiring to vote faced some daunting challenges to
travel to these villages. Transnistrian authorities blocked certain
segments of road, rendering access impossible. Voters who intended
to travel in a special bus had their bus boarded by TN authorities,
and rather than surrender their documents, were forced to
disassemble. Some succeeded in reaching Moldovan villages in
private cars; many others were forced to walk. An Embassy observer
spoke with one young couple from Grigoriopol who, together with
their two-year-old son had trekked some 10-15 kilometers in order to
participate in the elections. Data collected on elections day
suggested that some 4,000 Transnistrian residents succeeded in
casting their votes.

Comment
--------------


9. (SBU) The last poll taken during the elections campaign had the
PCRM polling at about 36 percent. There are concerns about the
sudden leap from last week's polling data to today's 50 percent
showing at the ballot box. This could have been the result of
governmental threats and intimidation. Or, it could have been the
result of good PCRM campaigning. We think the jump from 36 to 50
percent probably came as a result of both intimidation and threats
and a well-managed PCRM campaign.


10. (SBU) The PCRM also has a support base of voters who believed
that voting for the PCRM was the best way to ensure continued
receipt of pensions and salaries. Many Moldovan voters seemed to
have voted for stability and for the party they believed could best
deliver results.


11. (SBU) The feeling in Chisinau is not one of celebration.
Several Moldovans in town have pointed out that the results
conveniently matched the number of votes in Parliament that would
allow the Party of Communists to select a President and maintain
control of Parliament. Some of our educated, white-collar FSNs have
expressed disgust over the results. PLDM party leader Vlad Filat
has publicly rejected the results; and the think tank Idis Viitorul
has called for repeat elections.

CHAUDHRY