Post Meets Disaffected Politicians in All

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 CHISINAU 000273

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TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PREL MD
SUBJECT: Post Meets Disaffected Politicians in All
32 Districts of Moldova

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Accordingly.

REF: Chisinau 268

1. (SBU) Summary: In the run-up to the April 5
parliamentary elections in Moldova, Pol/Econ
officers visited all 32 raions to meet members of
political parties and to assess the overall
conduct of the campaign. The political parties
all reported that they had been actively engaged
in reaching out to voters. We sensed tremendous
frustration with the ruling party at the raion
level and the Party of Communists (PCRM)-
controlled central government. Opposition
interlocutors attacked pervasive corruption,
misuse of administrative resources, and
intimidation tactics used by those in power
especially the police and fiscal-inspection powers
controlled by the central government. They also
reported that the electorate appeared confused and
intimidated. While many felt the results would be
too close to call, some of those we spoke to
expected that anti-PCRM parties, combined, would
win a greater number of seats than the PCRM in
Parliament after April 5. End Summary.

Methodology
--------------


2. (U) To standardize our research, we used the
same set of questions in each raion visit: what
is distinctive about this raion? How is the
campaign going? What problems have occurred?
What methods are you using to reach voters? What
specific effects of the global economic crisis are
you seeing? What is your prognosis for the
outcome of the elections?

Recovering from the Soviet Hangover
--------------


3. (SBU) Moldova is emerging from the shadow of
its Soviet past, and while it is not a fully
democratized country, it is not an authoritarian
state either. (Note: The accusations we recorded
are impossible to verify, but the numbers and
consistency of the accusations countrywide appear
to enhance their validity. End note). People
fear law-enforcement authorities, whose presence
at campaign rallies serves as a reminder of the
government's watchful eye. Authorities also have
been known to conduct drawn-out administrative
checks on businesses and make "invitations" to
police stations to discuss matters. Public
workersQmostly doctors, teachers, professors, and
inspectorsQare told that they must attend PCRM
rallies and meetings if they want to keep their
jobs. State officials, including Members of
Parliament and high Government of Moldova
officials, use state resources, such as official
cell phones and cars, to support the PCRM
campaign.


4. (SBU) On the positive side of the ledger,
opposition parties have been actively holding
rallies and meetings, talking with voters, and
spreading their messages door-to-door. They have
been putting up their campaign posters and
billboards in cities and villages, and openly
criticizing authority. Some expect to land seats
in the parliament.

Parties Face Campaign Limitations
--------------


5. (SBU) In almost every raion, participants
complained about the lack of space for their
partyQs posters, and about other parties putting
posters on top of theirs. According to the
regulations, campaign posters are only permitted
on designated placard frames that are often too
small to enable all parties to hang a poster.
Party activists therefore feel forced, or
provoked, to place their posters in illegal places
such as telephone poles, and court police
responses with a certain sense of righteousness.



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6. (SBU) Some party members we met spoke of
difficulties in conducting their campaigns, both
in their ability to hold meetings and in getting
their message out. The PCRM has gone to great
lengths to hamper the opposition parties' ability
to campaign through tactics that border on the
quasi-legal: denying permission to use public
buildings such as schools for campaign meetings;
distributing "aid" in the form of sugar, firewood,
and oil; and indirectly threatening opposition
members with job loss. There have only been a few
cases of truly illegal behavior, and the PCRM has
been careful to limit these incidents. The most
severe case we heard involved one raion PPCD party
member's brother, who was brutally beaten. (Note:
Again, we have no empirical evidence to back up
such charges. End note.) Local police reportedly
failed to respond. A criminal case was opened.
Four different prosecutors in succession had been
assigned to and then taken off the case. We were
made aware of only a few cases where violence was
used, but even one or two known instances could be
effective in intimidating voters and preventing
them from lodging formal complaints with the
Central Election Commission (CEC).


7. (SBU) The ruling party in many of the raions
has effectively impeded the opposition parties'
access to voters. Numerous party representatives
throughout the country expressed frustration at
the obstacles they faced in educating voters. Some
complained that people were not attending
opposition-sponsored rallies and meetings, though
it was not clear if this was because of fear of
the authorities or ineffective outreach. And
because of parties' limited access to the media
(especially national broadcast media from which
most voters get their information) and the
prohibitively high cost of TV air time, door-to-
door campaigning has been the common way to reach
voters in all of the raions. We heard
overwhelmingly that parties had to compete for the
extremely limited space on official billboards.
Furthermore, party representatives in some raions
criticized the ruling party for preventing free
access to public buildings to use for campaign
meetings leaving them with the only alternative of
congregating outdoors which, in winter, reduced
attendance. Where opposition parties such as the
Our Moldova AllianceQAMNQwere in charge of
villages and raions, activists lodged similar
charges against AMN authorities. In other raions,
such as Causeni and Soroca, where a high level of
political maturity and inter-party cooperation are
evident, party members noted that they had been
able to hold their meetings in schools after the
school day was over. Some parties chose to use
private facilities for their meetings with voters,
such as a restaurant or other hall.


8. (SBU) The most blatant incidents came up in
raions where people were most aware of their
democratic rights and exercised their freedom of
expression. In these areas, such as the PCRM-
controlled Balti, right-bank Moldova's second
largest city, the Ministry of Interior and
security services have allegedly worked alongside
local police to harass and intimidate voters and
party members. In several cases, parties reported
incidents of harassment by law enforcement of the
business sector. Several raions reported that the
ruling party had targeted businessmen, many of
whom were active opposition party members, and
created legal and financial headaches for the
businesses. The numbers of random audits have
increased substantially in recent months, and tax
authorities visit some businesses two to three
times in one month.


9. (SBU) Some of the criticisms we heard against
the ruling party seemed petty, leaving the
impression that certain opposition members were
complainers, not doers. For example, some
opposition party representatives complained that
their party was not allowed to hold meetings in
schools. They then admitted that they had not
even bothered to ask for permission to hold such a
meeting, as they were sure it would have been

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denied. Other party reps sitting at the same
table reported they had no problem using the
schools. Generally, in most raions, the
opposition has been able to stage unimpeded
rallies and meetings with voters, and to run paid
advertisements in the press.


10. (SBU) On a positive note, the Central Election
Commission (CEC) has been responsive to our
requests for greater transparency. We were
initially concerned that results would not be
posted at each district election commission before
the district sent vote totals to the CEC, leaving
open the possibility for vote rigging. The CEC
has agreed to make the tallying of the results
transparent at all levels of vote counting, from
the precinct to the district to the national
level.

Expected Economic Crisis on Hold for Now
--------------


11. (SBU) Across the board, in every raion,
participants in our meetings described their raion
in terms of the high number of working-age
population who had left the country, the lack of
jobs at home, and the grinding poverty. However,
the economy is likely to have little effect on how
people vote. Voters were frustrated with the
level of poverty, corruption and lack of jobs, and
even though many blamed the Party of Communists'
poor governance, they are apathetic and feel
helpless in their ability to affect political
change, not to mention the fear of doing so.


12. (SBU) Almost everyone provided anecdotal or
statistical evidence of the negative effects of
the global economic crisis, usually mentioning
discouraged migrants who have returned after
losing jobs, layoffs in local companies, and low
prices for agricultural produce. The more cynical
noted that, because Moldova has no economy to
speak of, the damage would be relatively minor.
The raions' party representatives said each raion
was feeling the effects of the economic crisis as
exhibited primarily by a return of migrants,
mostly from Russia, though also from Europe.
Remittances are down, and many local businesses
are feeling the pinch. All aspects of the local
economy have been hard hit, and most people think
the situation will get worse before it gets
better.


13. (SBU) Our interlocutors' predictions were more
hopeful and positive than their accounts of the
campaign. The general consensus was that four
parties would certainly make the six percent
threshold, with the following estimated results:
PCRM (30 percent plus or minus five),and the
Liberal Party, Liberal Democratic Party, and AMN
somewhere in the low teens.

Comment
--------------


14. (SBU) Many people nationwide are disenchanted
with the PCRM. They realize that, with a
deteriorating economy, loss of jobs, ongoing
emigration of Moldovans and increasingly unchecked
executive-branch power, the PCRM is not the agent
that will bring needed changed. The PCRM, though,
is making the case that stability is what Moldova
needs. Campaign ads feature a young woman with
her infant and the slogan "I am voting for
stability." The PCRM is covering its rhetorical
bets with other posters touting "Change for the
Better."


15. (SBU) A change in governance may bring an
improvement: a stronger judiciary, legislature
and media to check the formidable power of the
executive; more rule of law; hope that younger
leaders will modernize Moldova more quickly; and
less economic gangsterism. On the other hand, a
change in ruling party(ies) may bring to power a
weak, ineffectual opposition coalition that gets
little done. These elections are important.


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Chaudhry