DASD WALLANDER DISCUSSES TRANSNISTRIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 001000

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958; DECL: 12/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR RS MD
SUBJECT: DASD WALLANDER DISCUSSES TRANSNISTRIA
WITH FORMER MINISTER OF REINTEGRATION SOVA

Classified by: Ambassador Asif J. Chaudhry for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Deputy Assistant Secretary of
Defense Wallander and the Ambassador met with
former Minister of Reintegration Vitalie Sova on
December 11 to discuss the current situation in
Transnistria. Sova stressed U.S. and Russian
engagement are the key to a solution to the
conflict, noting that he and former Transnistrian
"Foreign Minister" Litskai were prepared to form a
non-governmental working group to propose a way
forward. End Summary.

Transnistria Overview
--------------


2. (C) At a December 11 lunch, former Minister of
Reintegration Sova told DASD Wallander and the
Ambassador, that Moldova must find "the
intersection of Moldovan and Russian interests" to
make progress on Transnistria. Sova noted that
although the former Moldovan government proposed
"demilitarization" of Transnistria as a
confidence-building measure, the Russians said
they first wanted Moldovan guarantees of permanent
neutrality. The previous government had balked at
this condition.


3. (C) Sova opined that Russian peacekeepers had
been "useless" since 1995, when animosity over the
1992 civil war had subsided, and their continued
presence only served to maintain the status quo.
With the Ukrainians essentially content with the
current situation and Romania preoccupied with
other issues, only the U.S. and Russia could solve
the Transnistria problem. Sova lamented the fact
that this was not a priority for either country,
and Moldova would have to be content with mere
dialogue at the current time.

Possible Solutions
--------------


4. (C) Despite the lack of prospects for progress,
Sova offered views for a constructive way forward
on Transnistria. As there will be no progress
without a productive discussion of the military
situation, Moscow must be made to understand that
the eventual withdrawal of its peacekeepers is
inevitable. Unfortunately, the Russia-Georgia
conflict had complicated the situation and
negatively influenced Russia's relations with all
of the former Soviet republics. Instead of
promoting resolution of conflicts and stability,
Russia is interested in "Balkanizing" and
instilling fear in the former Soviet republics.


5. (C) In response to DASD Wallander's query on
whether Russia would be receptive to U.S.
engagement with Russia on Transnistria, Sova
advised that the U.S. should seek to influence
Russian civilian experts. The U.S. should appeal
to Russia for a phased withdrawal, first of the
Russian Operational Group of Forces, followed by
RussiaQs peacekeeping troops. These forces would
be replaced with a neutral body, such as the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Europe (OSCE). While the Russians wanted
guarantees of Moldova's neutrality, they must
understand that Moldova had the right to determine
its own security. At the same time, Sova said,
the Russians needed to be reassured that Moldova's
economic, historic, and linguistic ties with
Russia meant that the two countries would always
be linked.





Sova-Litskai Initiative?
--------------


6. (C) The Ambassador emphasized that it was
important for individual citizens, not just the
authorities on both sides of the Dniester, to be
involved in discussions on Transnistria. Sova
noted that both he and former Transnistrian
"Minister of Foreign Affairs" Litskai, whom he had

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know since 1993, were now free to use their
experience and connections to develop a solution
that will reflect both the territorial sovereignty
of Moldova and the republic status of
Transnistria. As both Sova and Litskai are
working for their respective governments, they are
both free to conduct Track II diplomacy using
their knowledge from their years of official
negotiations. Sova noted that he had discussed
this project with Litskai and found a non-
governmental organization to be their umbrella
organization, for which they are seeking a grant.
Sova underscored that Transnistrian leader Smirnov
would likely not approve of such an independent
body, but he hoped that Smirnov would be out of
power "within two years."


7. (C) In response to DASD Wallander's urging that
Sova include Russian, European, and U.S. experts
in his working group, Sova agree that the
inclusion of international experts would be
helpful. He was less supportive of Russian
participation, suggesting that the Russians would
work with Smirnov to "crush" the initiative. Sova
was also lukewarm to the idea of including
Ukrainian and Romanian experts, since the
proposals he read from those two countries were
"not useful" for Moldova.

EU Travel Ban
--------------


8. (C) Sova shifted to the EU's travel ban on
Transnistrian leaders, commenting that with the
exception of Vice President Alexander Koroliev and
Deputy Minister of Security Oleg Gudymo, the ban
should be dropped for all on the list, including
Smirnov. According to Sova, the EU would then
have banned the "worst offenders," while Smirnov
would be put on the defensive and have to decide
how to respond. Sova added that Smirnov's sons
regularly traveled to Europe.



Transnistria After Smirnov
--------------


9. (C) Sova said that "Obnovlenie", Shevchuk's
political party, was the only real political
alternative with sufficient funding and cadres to
replace Smirnov's forces. According to Sova,
Smirnov's party had no future without Smirnov.
Sova discounted the strength of the Left Party,
Social Democrats, and Communists.


10. (C) Sova concluded by stressing that sooner or
later, Moldova would break through on the
Transnistria issue, but only with external help.
There could not be a solution without U.S. and
Russian engagement.


11. U) This message was cleared by Deputy
Assistant Secretary of Defense Wallander.grgr

CHAUDHRY