Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09CHIANGMAI94
2009-07-08 10:21:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Chiang Mai
Cable title:  

BURMA: KNU REPORTS BURMA ARMY MAY RESUME ATTACKS IN KAREN

Tags:  PREL PGOV MOPS PREF PHUM BM TH 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4164
PP RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHCHI #0094/01 1891021
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P R 081021Z JUL 09
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1090
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0064
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 1172
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000094 

SIPDIS

GENEVA FOR RMA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/7/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS PREF PHUM BM TH
SUBJECT: BURMA: KNU REPORTS BURMA ARMY MAY RESUME ATTACKS IN KAREN
STATE

REF: A. JUNE 19, AND 22-24 OIS AND PREVIOUS

B. BANGKOK 1484 (DKBA OFFENSIVE AND CROSS BORDER FLOWS)

C. CHIANG MAI 80 (FIGHTING WANING)

D. CHIANG MAI 76 (JUNTA-LED OFFENSIVE)

E. CHIANG MAI 71 (ETHNIC ARMED GROUPS RETHINKING)

CHIANG MAI 00000094 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

------------------------------------
Summary and Comment
------------------------------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000094

SIPDIS

GENEVA FOR RMA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/7/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS PREF PHUM BM TH
SUBJECT: BURMA: KNU REPORTS BURMA ARMY MAY RESUME ATTACKS IN KAREN
STATE

REF: A. JUNE 19, AND 22-24 OIS AND PREVIOUS

B. BANGKOK 1484 (DKBA OFFENSIVE AND CROSS BORDER FLOWS)

C. CHIANG MAI 80 (FIGHTING WANING)

D. CHIANG MAI 76 (JUNTA-LED OFFENSIVE)

E. CHIANG MAI 71 (ETHNIC ARMED GROUPS RETHINKING)

CHIANG MAI 00000094 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

--------------
Summary and Comment
--------------


1. (C) The Burma Army (BA) and Democratic Karen Buddhist Army
(DKBA -- a pro-Burmese regime splinter group) may be preparing
to renew their offensive against the KNU (Karen National Union
-- a group engaged in armed resistance against the Burmese
regime),according to KNU contacts. The sources suggested the
BA's plan may also include attacking the United Wa State Army
(UWSA - another armed resistance group with drug-trafficking
links),something we judge highly unlikely. If the BA/DKBA
carry out these attacks, the KNU are concerned that many more
IDPs may cross into Thailand. Currently, the number of refugees
that have fled to Thailand in the wake of last month's fighting
stands at just under 3,200.


2. (C) Comment: The RTG response to the most recent influx of
refugees has been positive (Refs A-D); no one has been forcibly
returned to Burma, over 2,300 have been permitted to register as
refugees, and NGOs are providing humanitarian assistance.
However, some challenges remain; access to the site chosen by
the Royal Thai Army to temporarily house the 2,300 refugees
currently in need of protection is difficult, and UNHCR would
like the RTG to provide better security. Furthermore, the
current site could not accommodate additional refugees, although
we believe NGOs would be able to provide for their basic needs.
End Summary and Comment.

--------------
A New BA/DKBA Offensive?
--------------


3. (C) On July 2, KNU contacts told us that according to
sources close to the Burmese Embassy in Thailand, the BA/DKBA

were again preparing to attack the KNU's Seventh Brigade (the
one that bore the brunt of last month's fighting -- Refs A, C
and D). According to the source, after completing those
operations, the BA and DKBA will then set their sights on
northern Karen State, where the KNU's First, Second, Third, and
Fifth Brigades are headquartered. The source said that the
third step in this plan is for the BA and DKBA to move further
north and engage the UWSA. Our KNU contacts could not provide
any insight into the timing or rationale behind this alleged
plan. (Comment: We believe any BA/DKBA attack against the
sizable and heavily armed UWSA is highly unlikely and could pose
a significant political and military risk to the Burma Army.
The regime and the UWSA have had a mutually advantageous
ceasefire in place for 20 years. Any fighting between them
would complicate regime efforts to convince the UWSA to
integrate into a border defense force prior to the 2010
elections (Ref E).)


4. (C) Though our KNU contacts could not confirm the veracity
of the above information, they told us that the BA and DKBA
continue to recruit forcibly porters in both Mon and Karen
States. The KNU's intelligence gathering also indicates that
the BA and DKBA are planning to increase their combined troop
strength in Karen State to approximately 6,000 -- a 100%
increase over current troop levels. (Comment: It is too early
to tell whether this increase will be permanent, or whether it
is part of a regular rotation of troops in and out of the area,
during which two units typically overlap for a short period of
time.)


5. (C) According to the KNU, any attack against its brigades in
northern Karen State would likely augment the flow of refugees
into Thailand. That area is home to the Eh Htoo Hta IDP camp,
which currently houses some 4,000 IDPs, our contact stated.
(Note: Many of the approximately 4,000 IDPs who crossed into
Thailand as a result of last month's fighting came from the Ler
Per Her IDP camp in southern Karen State.)

--------------
Karen Tension on the Rise
--------------


CHIANG MAI 00000094 002.2 OF 002



6. (C) Meanwhile, other developments are increasing tension
among the various Karen groups, according to the KNU: the DKBA
has reportedly agreed to join the Burmese regime's Border Guard
Force (Ref. E); a DKBA commander was assassinated in an area
controlled by the pro-regime KNLA Peace Council, which has
accepted incentives (mainly land) from the regime in exchange
for returning to Burma after previously fleeing; and the Shan
State Army-South -- an active armed group that has not signed a
ceasefire agreement -- has expressed interest in forming a
military alliance with the KNU and Karenni National Progressive
Party (the KNU's Karenni counterpart organization). These
developments have led to bickering between the DKBA and KNLA/PC,
and would appear to have made it difficult for the KNU and DKBA
to contemplate mending their rift. Complicating matters further
still, our KNU contact as well as another Burmese exile source
told us that local Thai military officials along the border are
allowing DKBA troops to cross into Thailand to purchase rations,
which, according to the KNU, are in short supply among BA/DKBA
troops.

-------------- --------------
--------------
Reflections on Last Month's Offensive: KNU Still Holding
-------------- --------------
--------------


7. (C) With the fighting that began in early June now over, the
KNU is taking stock of the situation and carrying out its
planned "unconventional tactics" (Refs A and C). The KNU base
camp at Ko Hla Haing has still not been taken, our contacts
confirmed, citing landmines as the main reason. Unfortunately,
the KNU does not have consolidated mapping data for the mines,
according to our contacts; rather, each battalion that planted
mines is responsible for keeping records. This lack of
coordination makes the mines a danger to both sides, our contact
stated, adding that he believes the KNU laid between 6,000-7,000
in southern Karen State. Another difficulty the KNU faced
during last month's fighting is the lack of training the Seventh
Brigade has received in unconventional warfare, he told us,
noting that the First, Second, Third and Fifth Brigades were
much more skilled in this area, and were even making use of
mines that are remotely detonated. The Seventh Brigade, he
said, is better prepared for conventional combat, which is of
little use given that the KNU is out-manned and out-gunned.


8. (C) The KNU is keeping a small detachment inside the Ko Hla
Haing base that is periodically ambushing BA and DKBA troops
according to our KNU contact. Since the fighting began in early
June, our contact said the KNU has not suffered any fatalities,
and that only eight of its soldiers have been wounded. Our
contact did not seem concerned about the KNU's ability to retake
the bases lost last month (Ref A),noting the KNU successfully
retook a base in southern Karen State earlier this year that it
had previously lost to the Burma Army and DKBA. He confirmed
reports (Ref A) that the KNU is sending small numbers of troops
deep into Karen State to ambush DKBA/BA forces from behind.


9. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassies Bangkok and
Rangoon.

MORROW
ANDERSON