FIGHTING WANING; DISPLACES 4,000

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000080

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU
GENEVA FOR RMA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/17/2019
TAGS: PREL PREF MOPS BM TH
SUBJECT: FIGHTING WANING; DISPLACES 4,000

REF: A. CHIANG MAI 76 (JUNTA-LED OFFENSIVE)

B. CHIANG MAI 61 (KNU ON PEACE TALKS)

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CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



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Summary and Comment
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1. (C) As fighting between the anti-Burmese regime Karen
National Union (KNU) and combined forces of its rival Karen
Democratic Buddhist Army (DKBA) and Burma Army wanes, the
humanitarian consequences are becoming clearer. Approximately
4,000 displaced persons have fled into Thailand, and are in need
of medicines (including for Malaria) and latrines. Meanwhile,
the KNU is changing its battle tactics, resorting now to
guerrilla warfare with only small numbers of soldiers manning
its bases in the affected area.


2. (C) Comment: This movement of displaced persons meets the
Thai definition of those it is willing to accept -- fleeing
active fighting -- and Thai authorities have responded quickly
to set up temporary shelters, with NGOs already providing some
support services. Since conditions inside Burma are not likely
to allow a safe return in the near future, however, Thai
authorities will be faced with a dilemma, including whether to
move them to existing camps in other provinces or establish a
new one. Embassy Bangkok will be engaging RTG officials on
their evolving thinking. End Summary and Comment.

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Fighting on the Decline; IDPs on the Rise
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3. (C) According to NGO, Thai National Intelligence (NIA),and
KNU contacts, the fighting that broke out earlier this month
between the KNU, DKBA, and Burma Army has lessened significantly
over the past few days. The KNU told us it is down to small
skirmishes, and NIA contacts opined it would die down entirely
in the next few days. According to NGOs assisting the IDPs and
to the KNU, the number of affected Karen who have fled into
Thailand has risen to 4,000, up approximately 25% from estimates
earlier this week.


4. (C) According to NGO workers assisting the IDPs, they are
scattered in seven make-shift sites on the Thai side of the
border. Medicines initially supplied by the Thai Ministry of
Public Health (MOPH) have run out, and more latrines need to be
dug. Among the affected population, 60 have Malaria, for which
they need treatment soon. Thai authorities are granting access
to NGOs, who are providing assistance in a coordinated manner.
Though the Royal Thai Army (RTA) is in overall control,
officials from the Ministry of Interior (MOI),which oversees
the refugee camps, and MOPH are also present. Thai authorities
have said little about prospects for the group to remain in
Thailand, though we note that refugee camps in Tak Province
(where the IDPs entered Thailand) are already crowded. Moving
4,000 IDPs to less crowded facilities in other provinces would
be a tremendous logistical undertaking, and is a prospect for
which the RTG has demonstrated little appetite.

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No Offensive Imminent, but...
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5. (C) According to a KNU contact who just returned to Thailand
from the affected area, the KNU is no longer trying to maintain
a sizable military presence at its bases, opting instead to man
them with very small numbers of troops. These soldiers are
responding to the shelling and heavy weaponry being employed by
the Burmese regime and DKBA with guerrilla tactics, ambushing
small units and quickly retreating. According to the contact,
these tactics have proven effective. Thai National Intelligence
Agency (NIA) contacts told us that KNU ranks have suffered one
fatality and 10 injuries, while the corresponding figures for
the DKBA are 17 and 59. Our KNU contact also alleged that many
DKBA and regime soldiers are consuming large amounts of alcohol
and methamphetamines, leading them to blindly follow orders,
even if they are physically unaware of exactly what they are
doing. The regime-DKBA offensive is designed to pressure the
KNU to the negotiating table, he opined, noting that the KNU is
still awaiting a response from the Burmese regime to the very
few conditions it placed on resuming talks (Ref B).


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6. (C) As the KNU reduces its military presence in the affected
area, it will become more and more difficult for IDPs to return
safely. According to the NIA, the KNU's tactics have
effectively led to its relinquishing military control over the
swath of Burmese territory across from Tak Province, leaving the
KNU with control over areas across from Mae Hong Son Province
only. The area across from Tak is strategically important, and
the landmines laid down by the KNU around its Seventh Brigade
and 202nd Battalion bases have prevented the DKBA and SPDC
forces from overrunning them entirely.


7. (C) Both RTA and NIA contacts told us on June 18 they see no
indication whatsoever that a new offensive will begin in the
next few days. They did confirm that the Burma Army (BA) has
ordered the DKBA to "wipe out" the KNU in the area. The DKBA/BA
tactic is to use heavy weaponry to clear the mines protecting
the KNU's bases to pave the way for ground troops to move in.
They opined that the KNU will vacate military positions if
necessary, ceding them to the DKBA until BA troops withdraw and
the KNU can retake them. The KNU successfully utilized this
maneuver earlier in the year, retaking its 201st Battalion post
that had previously been occupied by the DKBA. Nonetheless,
both the RTA and NIA contacts opined that small-scale military
actions would continue until the DKBA achieves the BA's goal of
eliminating the KNU's resistance in the area.


8. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassies Bangkok and
Rangoon.

MOORE
ANDERSON