Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09CHIANGMAI76
2009-06-08 10:20:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Chiang Mai
Cable title:  

JUNTA-LED OFFENSIVE DRIVES ETHNIC KAREN INTO THAILAND

Tags:  PREL PREF MOPS TH BM 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2886
OO RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHCHI #0076/01 1591020
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 081020Z JUN 09
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1061
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 1143
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000076 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/8/2019
TAGS: PREL PREF MOPS TH BM
SUBJECT: JUNTA-LED OFFENSIVE DRIVES ETHNIC KAREN INTO THAILAND

CHIANG MAI 00000076 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Mike Morrow, CG, ConGen, Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
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Summary and Comment

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000076

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/8/2019
TAGS: PREL PREF MOPS TH BM
SUBJECT: JUNTA-LED OFFENSIVE DRIVES ETHNIC KAREN INTO THAILAND

CHIANG MAI 00000076 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Mike Morrow, CG, ConGen, Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
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Summary and Comment

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1. (C) An offensive launched by the Burma Army in early June
against the anti-regime Karen National Union (KNU) has driven at
least 3,000 ethnic Karen across the border into Thailand. The
attack, led by the Burma Army and the pro-junta Democratic Karen
Buddhist Army (DKBA, a KNU rival),is reportedly flagging.
However, the resulting exodus of Karen is believed to be the
largest since 1997. Thai authorities are providing temporary
shelter, seeking assistance from NGOs, and have provided access
to UNHCR. Thai officials have assured the displaced Karen that
they may stay in Thailand until the situation across the border
is safe. This suggests the RTG wishes to keep open the option
of returning them to Burma rather than integrating them into the
existing 135,000-plus Burmese refugee population. While the RTG
has generally not/not forced refugees who have fled fighting to
return to Burma, the large number this time combined with
crowded conditions in Thailand's existing refugee camps may be
pressuring Bangkok to consider alternatives.




2. (C) Comment: KNU sources publicly, and Thai military
sources privately, say the offensive appears to be aimed at
pressuring the KNU and eliminating its remaining bases in Burma
to pave the way for implementing a rumored Burmese plan to
create a new border defense force that would integrate armed
ethnic cease-fire groups (like the DKBA) under the Burma Army's
command. DKBA leaders are believed to be split over whether to
sign up, and have reportedly engaged in secret talks about
possibly rejoining the KNU. The latest offensive may reflect a
regime tactic to force the DKBA's hand against the KNU and
toward the rumored border force. Meanwhile, the new influx of
ethnic Karen into Thailand presents resource challenges both to
the host Thais and to already-stretched NGOs. End Summary and
Comment.



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Junta-led Offensive Against Karen Bogs Down . . .


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3. (C) An offensive launched by the Burma Army in early June
against the anti-regime Karen National Union (KNU) has driven at
least 3,000 ethnic Karen across the border into Thailand,
according to press reports, NGOs, and RTG sources. (Note: The
Karen Refugee Committee reports a figure of 6,800, but UNHCR
sources believe the number is lower). The attacks, in eastern
Burma's Karen State, began on June 1, led by the Burma Army and
the pro-junta Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA). The DKBA
split several years ago from the KNU, which has fought against
Burma's military regime for over 50 years.




4. (C) Our contacts in the Royal Thai Army (RTA) and Thai
National Intelligence Agency (NIA) see the offensive as an
attempt to eliminate the remaining base inside Burma of the
KNU's armed wing - the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA).
Militarily, however, the attackers have not achieved their
objective due to hindrances including mountainous and heavily
mined terrain, as well as inclement rainy season weather. As a
result, the attacking ground troops have made little progress in
advancing toward the target KNLA base, resorting instead to
long-range mortar shelling. The mortars have inflicted neither
casualties nor substantial damage on the KNLA, whose
counterattacks have reportedly killed a half-dozen of the
600-troop Burma Army/DKBA force. Our RTA contact predicts the
attacking force will pull back in the next few days, given the
terrain and climate obstacles. Moreover, re-supply logistics
are problematic since most local villagers, typically forcibly
recruited as porters, have fled to Thailand.



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CHIANG MAI 00000076 002.2 OF 002


. . . But Drives Thouands of Ethnic Karen into Thailand

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5. (C) Nearly a week of fighting, however, has driven at least
3,000 ethnic Karen to seek refuge across the border in Thailand
(Tak province) - reportedly the largest such exodus since 1997,
when a large Burma Army offensive in Karen State forced tens of
thousands of ethnic Karen into Thailand. Our RTA and NIA
sources report that about 1,300 of this group had been residing
in Burma's Ler Per Her internally displaced persons (IDP) camp,
which is close to the targeted KNLA base. The balance fled from
nearby villages inside Burma. Thai authorities have provided
temporary shelter at schools and temples to all. The IDP group
is being housed at Nong Bua village, and the others at Mae Salit
village. Both are in Tak province's Tha Song Yang district.




6. (C) The RTA Third Area Commander, who has responsibility for
most of Thai-Burma border, visited the district where the
fleeing Karen are being sheltered on June 5. During his visit,
Thai authorities reportedly assured the displaced Karen that
they would be able to stay in Thailand until the situation
across the border was safe.




7. (C) Comment: This implies the RTG is keeping open the
option of returning the 3,000-plus Karen to Burma, rather than
integrating them into existing refugee camps in Tak province,
the largest of which is the Mae La camp, about 25 miles south of
Tha Song Yang district. While the RTG - currently host to over
135,000 Burmese refugees - has generally not/not forced refugees
who have fled fighting to return to Burma, the large number this
time combined with crowded conditions in Thailand's existing
refugee camps may be pressuring Bangkok to consider
alternatives. While we cannot predict what the RTG will decide
in this case, a possible influential factor will be the stressed
state of the Mae La camp, which faces overcrowding and food
shortages. Other refugee camps could be considered, but are
much farther away. End Comment.



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NGOs Look to Assist

--------------




8. (SBU) NGOs on the Thai side, such as the Thai Burma Border
Consortium, Solidarites Thailand, and Partners Relief and
Development, are taking steps to assist the displaced Karen.
Also, UNHCR reports that Thai authorities have given it access
to them. These groups are taking a census of the new arrivals,
conducting needs assessments, and beginning to provide basic
necessities such as food, medicine, clothing, and plastic
sheeting. Local authorities have reportedly asked for
assistance in constructing emergency latrines.




9. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Rangoon, and
with Embassy Bangkok Refugee Coordinator, who is currently in
Tak Province.
MORROW